Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah but it's for the 27th storm, my bad It’s been trying to trend on this short term first wave here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Nice little light Wed event on the NAM for NE NC into SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Out to 39 on the NAM , looks about the same, or a little wetter So any better on the qpf field? Move northwest at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Not so good up to 78, definitely supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: So any better on the qpf field? Move northwest at all? Not on the second wave no. This thing is a dud at this point. You live in eastern NC or SE VA on the first wave you may have a little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 NAM is south(er). Doubt precip makes it above Columbia this run. Gonna be dry as a bone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Last frame has a bit of promise. Not much, but it throws us a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Still plenty of time for this to move back north... take the Wednesday system as example. I'm not saying it will, but it certainly could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z yesterday and 18z today... the trends are obvious and should not be a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: 18z yesterday and 18z today... the trends are obvious and should not be a surprise Wrong storm this is the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Believe disco is referring to the storm in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 what im saying is dont expect to see any "promising trends" until <66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter, one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 RGEM looks a little wetter again with the early Wednesday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z is even further suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It's like pulling teeth to get a storm to keep showing up on the models, just crazy. I wish the storms would hold as easy as they fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That New Year's Day storm looking better! Looks like a can't miss clipper, maybe more! It's a good one Mack. This hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: That New Years storm, going beast mode!! Only 6 days out! And then either has convective feedback issues or the low is so strong in the gulf it completely robs us of all moisture availability. That’s ok at 12z the gfs had the darn thing headed toward Cuba lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, griteater said: It's a good one Mack. This hobby Low is a lot further in the gulf, lots of precip! This is going to be the one! Yes grit, this is a ball! The good thing is I'm off till the 3rd, plenty of time to get dissapointed by every run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks like I'm going to be busy shoveling that cold air, Until the pattern breaks probably early to Mid January!!! Heck of a winter storm in my forecast for late week! What happened to all that SW flow over running for late week? I thought the way a lot of Mets talked it was almost a lock??? DDT said the models were wrong last night! lol THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20. .NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, fritschy said: Go figure, With a low that strong in the gulf tho you know the presentation at the surface would be much more promising. It keeps trending more north that particular system may not be over. Kinda hoping on this one. I feel destroyed after this storm that was slated for Friday literally vanished when we had redux’s of 96, 88, 525 AD, 535 BC being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I swear, watching these models is the equalivent of watching Carolina play yesterday. So much stress. We did end winning at the last minute, so maybe the models will end up showing some love to some of us. Especially the ones that missed out last time. I have lowered my expectations though. But I refuse to start cliff diving. At least up until tonights and tomorrows runs. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the professional insight that is provided on this forum! I've learned so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 229pm update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter, one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . This is probably banter so please forgive me Chris but this **** has got to stop. All the whining and banter is clouding the information and it’s frustrating. People think we’re being “cliquish” or whatever don’t realize they wouldn’t have made it 48 hours on the old boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Something to watch is the wave moving through Wednesday morning. Models have suddenly trended stronger with this feature, mainly the mesoscale ones, and the RGEM is now printing out more than .25 in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Looks like I'm going to be busy shoveling that cold air, Until the pattern breaks probably early to Mid January!!! Heck of a winter storm in my forecast for late week! What happened to all that SW flow over running for late week? I thought the way a lot of Mets talked it was almost a lock??? DDT said the models were wrong last night! lol THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20. .NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Models backed way off on storm we received back on the 8th and 9th of his months. Then last minute we go to winter storm. We received 5 inches with this storm. Conditions will be quite different this time. Much colder if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 38 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Something to watch is the wave moving through Wednesday morning. Models have suddenly trended stronger with this feature, mainly the mesoscale ones, and the RGEM is now printing out more than .25 in qpf. Could be looking at 2-3 measurable events around here in a week, been a long time since that has happened. Need the waves to amp up just a bit more than the GFS has but not to much more....the way the 18Z GFS unfolds with the over running on the 1st and then the SLP in the gulf jumping to offshore the SE moving ENE on the 2-3rd is about perfect for us in PGV. Its not crazy heavy snow but its 24 hr of snow and good for probably 6-8" just on the 2-3rd. Be nice if this wave Wed surprises but I will take a pass on it if it will lock in the 2-3rd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Alright, so without wishcasting, is there a real chance the 29th storm comes more N with the precip? What changes in the model runs do we need to look for, besides just precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Guessing the GEFS members sucked, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Alright, so without wishcasting, is there a real chance the 29th storm comes more N with the precip? What changes in the model runs do we need to look for, besides just precip shield? Well the German model 18z run shifted north considerably... 18z run 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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