packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This is just sad...Euro says it should be sunny and brisk on Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 If nothing else the cold is impressive. We atleast can’t mess that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: This is just sad...Euro says it should be sunny and brisk on Thursday and Friday. So it’s NAM/GFS/NAVGEM/JMA vs EURO/CMC/UK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: So it’s NAM/GFS/NAVGEM/JMA vs EURO/CMC/UK now. It isn’t a fair fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It's just amazing, I've never seen such a model consensus all go to nothing so fast. Although that's probably because we've never seen TOO MUCH confluence and cold trending as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hard to bet against the Euro, UKMet and CMC.... If the NAVGEM folds, I am out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 i saw a squirrel burying a nut in my back yard... so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: i saw a squirrel burying a nut in my back yard... so there's that. Can’t forget about the worms and the birds either. What ever happened to that one forum member anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Can’t forget about the worms and the birds either. What ever happened to that one forum member anyways? You're referring to Wilkesborodude ..... he was banned several times and has not returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The 09z SREF was interesting. It actually had a few cutters and some amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: i saw a squirrel burying a nut in my back yard... so there's that. Makes sense. Good indicator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The NYE's system looks better on the Euro. Still probably wide right but better then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC ensemble still solid but still SE of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Pack, do you have any good SREF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: Pack, do you have any good SREF maps? I use NCEP's and the plume viewer. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! JMA....you have Pokemon, Navgem/GEFS/GFS/CMC-Ens and now JMA with solid QPF across the area. But the two best models on the planet have literally nothing. I don't ever remember a disparity between the UK/Euro and rest of the world inside day 4. I would be happy with .1-.2" of QPF which would be some light flurries/dusting. And the UK is just dry for our areas, has solid precip in s/c/e Atl/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! It wouldn’t be snow anyways. Ice or dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I’m fine with a little suppression as long as I can get around .25 qpf with high ratios. That’s at least a decent little snow event. Then I can hold out hope for round 2. Hoping Euro will eventually start to trend back a bit like the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The CMC ensemble suite was definitely wetter than the OP and the EURO was actually in improvement with a slightly weaker confluence push...which if anything may have stopped the squashed out trend for now. Once our players get more into the deeper network of OBS, we should have a better picture in the next 12 to 24 hours. Still amazing how much uncertainty though there is just a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: In NC, yes! No grasping here. We had one already anything else is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Of interest is the uptick in qpf shown by the RGEM and NAM for the Wednesday morning system. This is a recent development and initially this wave wasn’t forecast to do anything for the area. It’s been trending wetter and more amped. Hmmm. Here are the RGEM ensembles below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 .5-1” of ice for me.. good to know (good thing I bought dad a saw for Christmas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: .5-1” of ice for me.. good to know (good thing I bought dad a saw for Christmas) The RGEM is in MM so you’ll need to convert it first. Likely .10 or so qpf with that first wave Wednesday if it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover91 said: The 09z SREF was interesting. It actually had a few cutters and some amped up members. 15Z was definitely much further south. 09 was insanely far north from 81-87 over places like Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 15Z was definitely much further south. 09 was insanely far north from 81-87 over places like Tennessee So which was the latest run? 9 or 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So which was the latest run? 9 or 15z 21UTC=00z 03UTC=06z 09UTC=12z 15UTC=18z 15UTC would be the most recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Out to 39 on the NAM , looks about the same, or a little wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 LOL the Nam at 45. Has precip much further NW. If only.. Edit:@48 really trying to throw a surprise bone to the eastern NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: LOL the Nam at 45. Has precip much further NW. If only.. Yeah but it's for the 27th storm, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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