No snow for you Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Uh oh, it's over! Not a good sign when we are betting on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet is very flat...looks like the CMC It looks quicker then it’s 0z run. The 0z run did get light precip to e-NC. Need to see the precip panels in 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 RGEM still likes some E NC flakes in 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 We're going to need to somehow see the wave dig more. Need better ridging behind it and less pressing heights along the east coast ahead of it. 3-4 days to see improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: Why the morning as opposed to the evening? I'd think we'd want the evening so the damming could be firmly established so we can wet-bulb to the max. It would be established by then, and that's the coldest part of the day, the cold air would continue to funnel in as it precipitated. You don't want to take any chances with any kind of warming, I don't care what time of year it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 RaleighWx: “Let's see what the 12z UKMET/ECMWF/EPS show. If they show a whiff again, may be time to play down this threat significantly.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GEFS really backed for w/c NC but looks solid for central/eastern GA and SC. Maybe eastern NC too. This is your guys event, cold press looks really good...hopefully it’s more sleet then freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How much for Simpsonville .2 from GSP to RDU, .5 is Augusta to CAE. May not be done shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Day 7 threat really backed off too...when is winter over...mid Jan hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Day 7 threat really backed off too...when is winter over...mid Jan hopefully Steady as she goes Pack. We've seen this before. This is a positive pattern. Just have to wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Day 7 threat really backed off too...when is winter over...mid Jan hopefully According to Webb, winter is over after Mid- January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Gsp to rdu snow or sleet/fr? Have the individual gefs panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Day 7 threat really backed off too...when is winter over...mid Jan hopefully New Years threat is alive and well. If you take this look verbatim, whatever the hell this look is, then yes you will be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, broken024 said: Gsp to rdu snow or sleet/fr? Have the individual gefs panels You can see them here. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, WarmNose said: New Years threat is alive and well. If you take this look verbatim, whatever the hell this look is, then yes you will be disappointed To Pack’s defense, it really started trending the wrong way at 00z last night and really took a dump at 12z today. Very disappointing to say the least. N/S dominant right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 JMA is only out to 72 hours but it's still amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Steady folks. We all know the NW trend is coming along with a warm nose that won't quit. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Steady folks. We all know the NW trend is coming along with a warm nose that won't quit. Bank on it. This. It always comes back within 72 hours. Never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z UKMET threw a lot more precip inland compared to its 00z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: This. It always comes back within 72 hours. Never fails. It always fails when we have a PV pumping -0° dewpoints down into GA.....which isnt often. By the time the DPs recover this feature for Thursday will be fish food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 12z UKMET threw a lot more precip inland compared to its 00z run! Don't remember last run precip extent, but this one only gets it back to Macon-Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Don't remember last run precip extent, but this one only gets it back to Macon-Columbia UKMet had precip limited to E NC and E SC last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Don't remember last run precip extent, but this one only gets it back to Macon-Columbia 12z run vs 0z run below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro through 48 already has ticked south with low in the NE...which isn't good but the ridge in the west is better. It's funny we are getting hurt by blocking...been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hard for me to read the euro maps but it looks better at hour 42. A little more precip more northward in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: 12z run vs 0z run below. It looks like every model has actually improved minus the Canadian. Not sure why everybody is cliff diving at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I believe Bob Chill said it best. We would be better off if operational models only ran out to 120 hrs and ensembles went out to the long range. Would temper the expectations for a lot of folks. Going off the last couple precip events for up here weve over performed all the modeling for qpf. Hopefully this one continues the trend and we can squeeze out .25 or more and its powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: I believe Bob Chill said it best. We would be better off if operational models only ran out to 120 hrs and ensembles went out to the long range. Would temper the expectations for a lot of folks. Going off the last couple precip events for up here weve over performed all the modeling for qpf. Hopefully this one continues the trend and we can squeeze out .25 or more and its powdery snow. My signature quote from isohume about ghosts and the GFS says it best. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro looking like CMC at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Euro looking like CMC at 57 hours. Now everybody can cliff dive at Lookout’s place. Merry Christmas. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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