wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Some places in NENC may squeeze out an inch or 3 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: boom I guess it’s wetter than the 06z was. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC has it snowing in the Bahama’s. Complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC suppresses the storm, hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Snowmap isnt awful for triangle areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Verbatim the GFS is a nice little snow from RDU to ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: CMC has it snowing in the Bahama’s. Complete whiff. Bahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Canadian is rough.... a complete whiff for everyone including lower GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 nw trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: grasping straws In NC, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: In NC, yes! I think we all are right now. I'm not even sure I will get much of anything down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Good start to a trend hopefully. Low popped closer to the coast. Precip a little stronger and further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: In NC, yes! That German model the digimon came in super wet, has .3 to .4 from you to ColdRain. More SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: That German model the digimon came in super wet, has .3 to .4 from you to ColdRain. More SE. Post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Canadian is rough.... a complete whiff for everyone including lower GA/SC. That's a concern, but hours 84 and 90 on GFS, gets our ground white, with sleet or snow! CMC was a lot wetter the last run, possibly a blip! Watch the UKMET and NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Post it. Now we are grasping when we have to resort to the this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Verbatim the digimon is crippling to SC and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Verbatim the digimon is crippling to SC and GA. These wierd models, icon, digimon, Pokemon models came to everyone's attention last year, but they did really well on last years storm 3-5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Now we are grasping when we have to resort to the this model Did well last winter storm if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Did well last winter storm if I recall correctly. Yeah the German model is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Did well last winter storm if I recall correctly. That has me with about .6" of precip. I will gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The ICON has some of the highest resolution amd actually runs off some of the schemes the EURO does. Last night's 00z cycle was much drier amd I expected theEURO to follow suit. Now, with the 12z cycle wetter, i suspect thd EURO will have some trend back to a wetter solution. Key differences: The ICON is much quicker with the moisture, starting earlier Thursday instead of late Thursday, which likely could mean its emphasizing the lead wave a little more and/or just quicker with the timing of the moisture field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Good start to a trend hopefully. Low popped closer to the coast. Precip a little stronger and further inland Personally, I don't want closer to the coast. We haven't seen anything here since 2014. Closer to the coast means we get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: The ICON has some of the highest resolution amd actually runs off some of the schemes the EURO does. Last night's 00z cycle was much drier amd I expected theEURO to follow suit. Now, with the 12z cycle wetter, i suspect thd EURO will have some trend back to a wetter solution. Key differences: The ICON is much quicker with the moisture, starting earlier Thursday instead of late Thursday, which likely could mean its emphasizing the lead wave a little more and/or just quicker with the timing of the moisture field. It's really odd. Usually we have these kind of questions at day 5+ and especially 7+, but now we're within ~3 days and still not really knowing QPF amounts, isn't this kinda rare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 27 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Good start to a trend hopefully. Low popped closer to the coast. Precip a little stronger and further inland Personally, I don't want closer to the coast. We haven't seen anything here since 2014. Closer to the coast means we get rain. I think central and eastern N.C. needs the low stronger, this will bring it further north but bring in more precip, we should still be cold enough for snow given the high placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 UKMet is very flat...looks like the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: It's really odd. Usually we have these kind of questions at day 5+ and especially 7+, but now we're within ~3 days and still not really knowing QPF amounts, isn't this kinda rare? Fast flow, lots of pieces of energy floating around, lots of issues for the models! May have to wait on nowcasting! Would love for this precip, if there is any, to arrive Thursday morning , like the Icon showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: It's really odd. Usually we have these kind of questions at day 5+ and especially 7+, but now we're within ~3 days and still not really knowing QPF amounts, isn't this kinda rare? The model mayhem has been for a better word ... extreme the last few years. Basically think of the OP guidance as another variable in an ensemble. Slightly different points lead to drastically different outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: These wierd models, icon, digimon, Pokemon models came to everyone's attention last year, but they did really well on last years storm 3-5 days out Well it’s hard to take Pokémon and GFS over UK/Euro. I just looked at the EPS, counted 22 or so members that get precip back to Raleigh and your area. Roughly half of those were big amounts. But 28 whiffs. Going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Fast flow, lots of pieces of energy floating around, lots of issues for the models! May have to wait on nowcasting! Would love for this precip, if there is any, to arrive Thursday morning , like the Icon showed! Why the morning as opposed to the evening? I'd think we'd want the evening so the damming could be firmly established so we can wet-bulb to the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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