burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'm starting to sweat a little bit. We definitely need to stop this trend with the 12z runs. This would be a terrible of waste of a perfect pattern with an excellent wedge if we can't generate any precip. It would be par for the course though.... It seems like every storm i'm in a good spot only for the last second shift 50 miles north that leaves me mostly rain; however, when that last second shift would be to my benefit, it will probably go the other way. Exact thing happened to me for the Feb. 2014 storm when Columbia got 9 inches of snow. I was certain that one would shift north, but it never did. The precip shield did expand a little bit towards the event and I got 3 inches, but nothing like the usually northwest shift. i actually quoted the wrong storm here... I'm thinking of the storm where Columbia, SC jackpotted, maybe it was like february 2010??? Columbia peeps will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Grayman said: Long time lurker trying to learn. Latest GEFS looks a bit wetter to me. Others? Yes...I counted 14 out of 21 that were solid hits with more then half of those really heavy QPF. All the members that were heavier QPF had more northern stream interaction that pulled the southern low further n to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yes...I counted 14 out of 21 that were solid hits with more then half of those really heavy QPF. All the members that were heavier QPF had more northern stream interaction that pulled the southern low further n to the coast. This ones toast! Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 WPC Update EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 AM EST MON DEC 25 2017 VALID 12Z THU DEC 28 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 01 2018 ...WIDESPREAD ICE/SNOW THREAT WITHIN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK... OVERALL PATTERN AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH SOME 500 HPA RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRESSION IN THE SUBTROPICS ARE EXPECTED TO BROADEN/WEAKEN OTHERWISE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH THE RIDGE'S EXISTENCE IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPSTREAM GYRE ALOFT WHICH STRENGTHENS/RETROGRADES INTO THE BERING SEA WITH TIME. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES HELP ASSERT REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO OFFER POOR RUN-TO-RUN AND RANDOM DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW IN THE 4-7 DAY TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY WITH SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT. DESPITE THE JUMPINESS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...FORECAST SPREAD HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASINGING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUES CONTINUE TO LIE WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE EAST COAST HEADING INTO THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND WHICH TRACKS INTO/NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA BY AROUND NEXT SUNDAY AND A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THROUGH A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITION. UPDATE...THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH RECENT GFS RUNS WITH THE ERN PACIFIC FEATURE MOVING INTO BC AND THE PAC NW AND DOWNSTREAM ALSO TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED LOW/QPF/WINTER WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THE EARLIER RELEASED WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. THAT SOLUTION OFFERED LESS AMPLITUDE/MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE 12 UTC ECMWF...BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISITED IF THE UPCOMING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THE UPCOMING QPF AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROGS WILL SHOW THIS TREND. WEATHER/THREATS HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE SPECIFICS AND LONGER TERM RAMIFICATIONS/TRANSITIONS WITHIN THIS WINTRY PATTERN INCLUDING ICE/SNOW THREATS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER GRIDS SHOW A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW PROBABILITIES THROUGH MID-LATER WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN EMERGING WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN OVER AR, GA, AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND ANY POSSIBLE TROWAL/NORLUN TROUGH-LIKE FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas everybody! Kinda like the looks of the Nam at 12z with the trajectory of the moisture in TX at 34 with the first wave. Looks like it may be trying to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Merry Christmas everybody! Kinda like the looks of the Nam at 12z with the trajectory of the moisture in TX at 34 with the first wave. Looks like it may be trying to overperform. The 27th storm or the 29th? If I recall, someone said if we had a stronger wave on the 27th, it would hurt the 29th wave? But the 29th wave has been trending drier, so it couldn't hurt what's not there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The 27th storm or the 29th? If I recall, someone said if we had a stronger wave on the 27th, it would hurt the 29th wave? But the 29th wave has been trending drier, so it couldn't hurt what's not there! Eh out to 42 looks fairly similar in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @45 the Nam is really attempting to dig the pac energy down the intermountain west. Let’s see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 So I guess we're now in wait and see mode to see if the models bring the storm back to life? My forecast calls for 50 pops freezing rain at 28 thursday night, so with that kinda temp, I'm almost positive that we would have alot of sleet in North GA. It'd be a shame with such a cold wedge to not have any precip to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Nam doing some Nam things out to 51. I think it looks better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Any update buddy? How does it look at 84hrs--for overall I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Any update buddy? How does it look at 84hrs--for overall I mean Our through 66 for me on the NAM and it definitely is improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 After about 42hrs only can look for overall set up. Hopefully not suppression or dampening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 NAM trended in the right direction compared to 06z... let's hope all the models start moving that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: NAM trended in the right direction compared to 06z... let's hope all the models start moving that direction. I knew I jinxed it. Dangit. Now all of the models will start trending wetter and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Nam looks solid at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Any update buddy? How does it look at 84hrs--for overall I mean Def trended the precip more NW overall. Heavier precip into SC this run. It’s def trying just don’t know if it’s gonna be what everyone had hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 If the really suppressed solutions verify, there could still be a devastating ice storm for places like augusta, GA to Charleston, SC. Even the dry models have 1/2 inch or more of liquid falling there with temps in the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Nam looks solid at 84. yeah, a solid ice storm... 81hr has me in sleet, 84hr ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The NAM is almost always the most amped so thats not good news for folks in NC hoping for snow or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I have a question: With the initial airmass SO dry to start with and getting drier with the strong CAD continuing to settle in, won't it take a good bit of precip just to moisten the atmosphere enough to even get anything to the ground? I don't mean to rain on everyone's parade, but was just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looking for trends on the 84 NAM is one thing. Taking it at face value is nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: I have a question: With the initial airmass SO dry to start with and getting drier with the strong CAD continuing to settle in, won't it take a good bit of precip just to moisten the atmosphere enough to even get anything to the ground? I don't mean to rain on everyone's parade, but was just wondering. The models account for evaporation in their qpf outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 WxBrad said chances have increased for dozen precip Thursday! On FB about 30 minutes ago, but has most in a 10% chance!? Wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Def trended the precip more NW overall. Heavier precip into SC this run. It’s def trying just don’t know if it’s gonna be what everyone had hoped for. Looking at the 12Z NAM Op at hour 78, and knowing the CLIMO for our areas, this looks good so far, taken at face value. In that frame, you see the low trying to pick up steam off of the Carolina Coast. This has a look where there will be upper level disturbances kicking things up. One other thing to note is that it looks like this may move more in a direction of one storm beginning around New Years. Still trying to get a handle on the initial wave-I guess. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds, but something is gonna POP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I just want to point out, (not that it will be the case this time), but 96hrs out from our last event, the Euro showed zero precipitation in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: I have a question: With the initial airmass SO dry to start with and getting drier with the strong CAD continuing to settle in, won't it take a good bit of precip just to moisten the atmosphere enough to even get anything to the ground? I don't mean to rain on everyone's parade, but was just wondering. Yes, you are correct, but the models allows for that when they calculate total accumulated precip. Some of the QPF is lost to evaporation. That is a part of why the totals are not as heavy back to the west. They will have more virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: The models account for evaporation in their qpf outputs. Cool thanks. I hope I'm not too far NW for this storm. Let the NW and wetter trend commence! It has been awhile since I was forecast to be 28 with winter precip, so I have almost no doubt I would have alot of sleet compared to all zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 yeah, a solid ice storm... 81hr has me in sleet, 84hr ZR Ice sucks. Let's hope the 850's cool to below 0 so it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Not sure how far north the NAM would get with precip but it did fairly well with todays storm for the NE from that range. Its really to bad...although for those that don't want ice it's a good thing but if we had WSW flow with how warm that gulf is with those temps. It's seems like every winter storm the past few years the SE ridge has made it's presence felt...that would be the one thing that could help get more precip further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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