griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro is nothing but NW flow....light precip right on the SC coast is it, and it's rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro is nothing but NW flow....light precip right on the SC coast is it, and it's rain there storm should be right around 114 yep shes bone dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It goes back to what Pack posted earlier....we've lost some of our stream splitting / stream separation, so there's less of a digging wave and no backing of the flow to the SW over the southeast states. Onward we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: storm should be right around 114 Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Does it bring in the the same cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 00z Navgem was pretty good. Has the storm with precip back into S KY and S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Does it bring in the the same cold? Not the mega cold like the last run (next weekend and into early Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Well that got out of hand quickly. Maybe it comes back tomorrow. Maybe not. At least you guys will get the cold you wanted so badly. Still looking like an outside chance of a bomb on New Years. Things could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Well that got out of hand quickly. Maybe it comes back tomorrow. Maybe not. At least you guys will get the cold you wanted so badly. Still looking like an outside chance of a bomb on New Years. Things could be worse To me anyway, plain cold has it's own beauty. Sure would be nice to get some snow to go along with it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 NAM is a decent bit north from 0z, good bit of precip breaking out Wednesday AM over MS and AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 hours ago, JoshM said: Delete The h5 and h7 shortwaves never really phase at those levels. You can see at H7 RH values there is some interaction but minor. But a weak low SE of New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 A Christmas miracle! Y'all got a stocking full of NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The 6z GFS has the storm back !!! Great start to a wonderful day! Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Lump of coal moment: NYE storm, cold rainer! Edit: a little slop in the CAD regions. A lot weaker though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 FWIW: 06z RGEM shows a wintry band for SE-E. NC Wednesday morning like previous models have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwick20 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I don't think all hope is lost on this one just yet.. How many times over the years have we seen the models pick up on a storm 8-10 days out only to lose it around 5 days out then bring it back 3 or 4 days out. I expected this storm to all but disappear at some point. Now let's see if it starts creeping back into the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, cwick20 said: I don't think all hope is lost on this one just yet.. How many times over the years have we seen the models pick up on a storm 8-10 days out only to lose it around 5 days out then bring it back 3 or 4 days out. I expected this storm to all but disappear at some point. Now let's see if it starts creeping back into the runs. This. I’ll take a suppressed look this far out nine times out of ten. Feeling bullish about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 54 minutes ago, cwick20 said: I don't think all hope is lost on this one just yet.. How many times over the years have we seen the models pick up on a storm 8-10 days out only to lose it around 5 days out then bring it back 3 or 4 days out. I expected this storm to all but disappear at some point. Now let's see if it starts creeping back into the runs. Yup! It trips me out how people are jumping off the cliff and all hope is lost mentality. Heck...we have AWESOME SIGNALS for a wintry pattern in the next week to week and a half. It will all work itself out. While we are on the subject of "getting the shaft", I cannot stand when you have almost total consistency with the major models for days and days on end and then you realize during the beginning of the event that it is NOT going to be ANYTHING like the monster snows shown for days and the warnings from the NWS end up being for naught. Now that is what I call a MAJOR KICK IN THE SHA-BEEP. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Yup! It trips me out how people are jumping off the cliff and all hope is lost mentality. Heck...we have AWESOME SIGNALS for a wintry pattern in the next week to week and a half. It will all work itself out. While we are on the subject of "getting the shaft", I cannot stand when you have almost total consistency with the major models for days and days on end and then you realize during the beginning of the event that it is NOT going to be ANYTHING like the monster snows shown for days and the warnings from the NWS end up being for naught. Now that is what I call a MAJOR KICK IN THE SHA-BEEP. LOL. Sadly we know this all to well here in the south haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mclean02 said: Sadly we know this all to well here in the south haha You got that right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 yep most the time if not all the time storms are lost just to reappear 3 or 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Personally, I'm skeptical that this ever becomes a significant winter event for the majority of the board. Sometimes storms disappear like farts in the wind...never to return. Today's 12z suite should be a good indication one way or the other. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm starting to sweat a little bit. We definitely need to stop this trend with the 12z runs. This would be a terrible of waste of a perfect pattern with an excellent wedge if we can't generate any precip. It would be par for the course though.... It seems like every storm i'm in a good spot only for the last second shift 50 miles north that leaves me mostly rain; however, when that last second shift would be to my benefit, it will probably go the other way. Exact thing happened to me for the Feb. 2014 storm when Columbia got 9 inches of snow. I was certain that one would shift north, but it never did. The precip shield did expand a little bit towards the event and I got 3 inches, but nothing like the usually northwest shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwick20 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The 12z runs may show us to a degree but I'm thinking the Oz runs tonight will give us a better picture of whether the hammer start hitting the nail on this one or whether we're all excited about its potential. Maybe it's just the Christmas spirit but I feel like things will trend our way tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Long time lurker trying to learn. Latest GEFS looks a bit wetter to me. Others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'm starting to sweat a little bit. We definitely need to stop this trend with the 12z runs. This would be a terrible of waste of a perfect pattern with an excellent wedge if we can't generate any precip. It would be par for the course though.... It seems like every storm i'm in a good spot only for the last second shift 50 miles north that leaves me mostly rain; however, when that last second shift would be to my benefit, it will probably go the other way. Exact thing happened to me for the Feb. 2014 storm when Columbia got 9 inches of snow. I was certain that one would shift north, but it never did. The precip shield did expand a little bit towards the event and I got 3 inches, but nothing like the usually northwest shift. I know what you mean. I will NEVER forget the 12" of snow i got IMBY for the February, 2014 Snow Storm. They originally called for 6"-8" and we ended up with 12"-13", due to THUNDERSNOW and the comma head setting up over my area. It was so awesome to see it OVER PERFORM. That storm and the February 2004 storms are both excellent reminders that anything can change at the last minute and you end up getting a LOT MORE than ANYONE saw coming. I hope we see a storm like that this season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, fritschy said: yep most the time if not all the time storms are lost just to reappear 3 or 4 days out. This is a good point and have seen it happen over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'm starting to sweat a little bit. We definitely need to stop this trend with the 12z runs. This would be a terrible of waste of a perfect pattern with an excellent wedge if we can't generate any precip. It would be par for the course though.... It seems like every storm i'm in a good spot only for the last second shift 50 miles north that leaves me mostly rain; however, when that last second shift would be to my benefit, it will probably go the other way. Exact thing happened to me for the Feb. 2014 storm when Columbia got 9 inches of snow. I was certain that one would shift north, but it never did. The precip shield did expand a little bit towards the event and I got 3 inches, but nothing like the usually northwest shift. Meh, it was all just going to be ZR anyways. I would much rather have it pan out when we have a shot at mostly or all snow instead of a crippling economic damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The fact the normally northern stream dominant and better northern stream handling GFS has more of an event on Thursday into Friday gives me higher than normal confidence the Euro is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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