FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here's the 12z GEFS snow depth at hour 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Does that include ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, broken024 said: Does that include ice I don't know. It is snow depth so I would assume it uses a little bit of logic. edit: but thinking about it, most individual runs shows a lot of ice. So maybe this is all frozen and freezing types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 54 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I don't know. It is snow depth so I would assume it uses a little bit of logic. edit: but thinking about it, most individual runs shows a lot of ice. So maybe this is all frozen and freezing types. For sure some of those accumulations will be ice for NC. I would probably halve (at least) those totals. Still a great signal from an ensemble method this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anyone seen the UK? Looked like precipitation was really south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, broken024 said: Does that include ice It's a stock 10:1 with snow flag triggered which does not incorporate a mixed bag. Just looking at H5 amoms, unsure if we do that anymore. The difference between the 0 and 12z GFS is pretty striking. The lack of a retrograding SE ridge allows for less amplification of the trough in to the MS valley, a result of the ULL being flattened in upper Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Add the NAVGEM to the suppressed and out to sea solution. It was previously amped, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If it gets as cold as what is forecast, Usually this far south with that much cold it's SUPER SUPPRESSION you have to worry about! That's my concern right now................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: If it gets as cold as what is forecast, Usually this far south with that much cold it's SUPER SUPPRESSION you have to worry about! That's my concern right now................. Poor MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 A TON of legitimate strikes on the 12z GEFS. The OP was out to lunch in regards to it’s suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is gonna be juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, msuwx said: Euro is gonna be juicier. Yeah...euro looks pretty scary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Yeah...euro looks pretty scary lol Fook yea!! GEFS mean and Euro on board. Here we go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Yeah...euro looks pretty scary lol Yep.... huge ice storm for N GA, much of NW 2/3rds of SC, southern, central NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If you love major ice storms this Euro run is for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Can’t complain about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here’s a sampling of ensemble members from the 12z GEFS. As you can see the OP GFS isn’t well supported. How about for north Texas? Maybe earlier than SE (0z Friday) or no go?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 “Euro’d” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro prior to the onset of the event has TDs into the teens all the way to GA/SC line stretching into northern 1/2 of GA. Drops KCHS to 34 at 06z 12/29. EURO eroding southern edge of the wedge too quickly with steady precipitation with such a strong wedge established. Don't forgot its slight warm bias as well. This is a classic CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Robert has chimed in on FB: "The European Model remains adamant on tapping the Gulf around Thursday, sparking a low pressure that turns into a Beast Snowstorm , and IceStorm---depending on your location. Kentucky northern TN, mostly all snow. Heavy snow totals most of NC, upper SC ....major sleet and probably a narrow ice band , but intense in Atanta across northern Georgia and much of central SC." Read more on his FB page WXSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, broken024 said: Anyone seen the UK? Looked like precipitation was really south Yeah UKMet was colder but broad and weak with the wave. Pretty much a miss though it has some light precip in the eastern Carolinas. We may some drugs to get thru this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z Euro Ens Mean is a healthy storm with strong damming, much like the operational run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro Ens Mean is a healthy storm with strong damming, much like the operational run Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM? Don’t forget the GEPS is in the CMC/Euro camp too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Don’t forget the GEPS is in the CMC/Euro camp too. Just saw in MA forum you can add the JMA to the for us camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Just saw in MA forum you can add the JMA to the for us camps. Just eye balling it, it looks like a little over 1" of QPF at RDU during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The GFS usually does this, just like last storm. It loses the storm or shows a different solution, while the other models come around to the solution it had before it changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, ajr said: Can’t complain about this... What is the link to create these new graphics on Weather.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro/GFS/CMC ensemble means basically all look the same - healthy storm with strong damming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Posted this in the other thread but it belongs here. Euro has a shortwave/energy in SE Oregon/N Nevada moving SE at 96 and digging while the GFS has barely anything.Huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.