lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points? Lots and lots of evap cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Guys, to put this into perspective, the 2002 ice storm started out with a dry wedge and dew-points in the single digits above zero. This is 10 degrees colder than that one. We were in the mid 20's during the height of the storm. This would imply temps in the 20 degree range. If that is true, folks to the south of me will be crushed. We are looking at more in the way of frozen here in western NC. Good luck to you posters down that way. That is the only time that I recall that North GA did not get much ice if any ice (at least my area) from a wedge when under an ice storm warning. Had a 33 degree pouring rain the whole night, not even a trace of ice that I can recall. I assume this would be different here. I think we got like over 2" that night, so perhaps it's a good thing it didn't freeze. At the time, however, I was totally bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Pilotwx said: Virga I'd rather have a burgs storm than 33 and rain, all day everyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points? The drier the air is at the on-set of a precipitation event, the more evaporational cooling you will get. It is a product of latent heat transfer via evaporation. So, you want those dew points as low as you can get them to start, that is if you are rooting for a frozen/freezing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GFS still trying to entertain the idea of a 27th flurry fest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Out to 90, GFS is a little flatter with the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Out to 90, GFS is a little flatter with the wave Damn, thought the GFS was on the comeback! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC is a little south of its previous run, but it's a decent run for eastern NC and eastern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC appears less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks funky with that precip along the gulf, the some stretches up to the Midwest!? Is that two separate pieces of energy!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Similar temps on the GFS run, but less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Another run, another trip to ice storm city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I hope we are still far enough out that they are all losing the storm, and we need the energy to get sampled in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Heavier precip further south on GFS also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Trend is clear here... wave is wayyy too flat and not enough ridging out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 If the 00z Euro don't come in better tonight, folks in Northern and western NC can stick a fork in a decent winter storm idea................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Trend is clear here... wave is wayyy too flat and not enough ridging out west The thing with this storm is that even .1 or .2 qpf could cause real problems falling with temps in upper teens to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The energy isn’t. even. onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: If the 00z Euro don't come in better tonight, folks in Northern and western NC can stick a fork in a decent winter storm idea................. The happy New Years storm will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Either this thing is going to come back more amped tomorrow or it's going to keep trending more flat and squashed out. The trends are clear at this point. Flat wave/Precip south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The energy isn’t. even. onshore. Exactly, but the trend is less precip on every decent model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: The happy New Years storm will save us! Maybe? That's seems to be about all we have to chase atm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Either this thing is going to come back more amped tomorrow or it's going to keep trending more flat and squashed out. The trends are clear at this point. Flat wave/Precip south. It's going to Cuba. Either that or Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 New UKMet looks slightly less amped than the GFS even at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: The energy isn’t. even. onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: If the 00z Euro don't come in better tonight, folks in Northern and western NC can stick a fork in a decent winter storm idea................. Not to be too IMBY, but is it still showing decent moisture up into North GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Rule #3 Guys: 3. Do not ever declare a bust when an event is just unfolding. You'll get burnt 99 times out of 100 and end up pissing people off. This is actually probably more important than the first two guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Tried bringing this up earlier but post got deleted for whatever reason. Turning into typical northern stream dominated system that will really only impact the NE...there is a chance if enough of that energy that comes out to stay together to bring some light icing/snow. There may be a surface reflection out off the SE coast but that won't throw precip back west until it all consolidates and pounds Boston. Hopefully the first week of Jan brings something has some potential. You can see the trend of the GFS digging the NS energy further SW and our SS energy evaporating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 00z CMC with a 1 2 punch and looks juiced for a 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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