Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18Z NAVGEM definitely way more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 18Z NAVGEM definitely way more amped. 00z NAM is def more “diggy” looking as well out to 63. Looking like it’s trying hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 18Z NAVGEM definitely way more amped. This is the model that led the way on the last event. It has the hot hand right now. It increased totals as we approached verification. I would pay close attention to it for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 32 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS trend with the piece of energy...looks to be a little slower/stronger past few runs and further south. Seen this movie before. Slowly amps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Nam is bone dry at the end of its run. Night and day difference between it and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Nam is bone dry at the end of its run. Night and day difference between it and the GFS. Not in the NAM's wheelhouse yet. It has very poor verification scores at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Nam is bone dry at the end of its run. Night and day difference between it and the GFS. Is it slower building the moisture or the high suppression being that severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam is bone dry at the end of its run. Night and day difference between it and the GFS. Doesn’t look that much different to me? Nam GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam is bone dry at the end of its run. Night and day difference between it and the GFS. That’s because it only goes out to 84 hours. Our system is beyond that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Doesn’t look that much different to me? Nam GFS imageproxy.php NAM is a little more southward and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: That’s because it only goes out to 84 hours. Our system is beyond that timeframe. NAM and GFS are almost identical as shown above. Very little difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: NAM sand GFS are almost identical as shown above. Very little difference. Handles the N/S energy completely different guys. GFS is extra gung ho. Edit: that digging of the northern vort is what is assisting the precip totals imo on the gfs. Nam is much more displaced to the north. Without that I’m thinking that the southern stream stays more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Look at the temp difference, nearly identical in everywhere but South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Handles the N/S energy completely different guys. GFS is extra gung ho. Take a look at that moisture divot off the coast of Jacksonville, FLA on the 84hr NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Take a look at that moisture divot off the coast of Jacksonville, FLA on the 84hr NAM though Good obs. Interesting if it actually heads north from there or if slides harmlessly out. I know I’m extrapolating the Nam but man I’ve been following this basically every 6 hours for days now and am looking for anything that may give us all an advantage. Sorry but I don’t see how it’s similar to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Handles the N/S energy completely different guys. GFS is extra gung ho. Edit: that digging of the northern vort is what is assisting the precip totals imo on the gfs. Nam is much more displaced to the north. Without that I’m thinking that the southern stream stays more suppressed. The digging of the northern vort on the GFS is actually a bias of it and can act to shear out or keep the primary wave from strengthening. Look at the CMC and you can see it keeps the streams separated more like the NAM. It’s good to see more stream separation imo. Otherwise the precip field is nearly identical on the GFS and NAM, it’s definitely not bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: The digging of the northern vort on the GFS is actually a bias of it and can act to shear out or keep the primary wave from strengthening. Look at the CMC and you can see it keeps the streams separated more like the NAM. It’s good to see more stream separation imo. Otherwise the precip field is nearly identical on the GFS and NAM, it’s definitely not bone dry. Gotcha I see it now. Thanks for the heads up. I see your post (looks like tropical tidbits) I was on instantweather looking at 850s and surface precip and it literally had nothing over TX, whereas the gfs already had moisture blossoming in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @snowlover91 just so you don’t think I’m crazy. Won’t allow me to load 18z gfs, but moisture is much more prominent on its run when comparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 NAM temps are colder because it is better at picking up CAD is my guess than GFS Not sure what to make of the pocket off Jacksonville just yet either but seems to be significant enough for possible LP build maybe??---Have to defer to those more knowledgeable than I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Take a look at that moisture divot off the coast of Jacksonville, FLA on the 84hr NAM though go back a few frames and play it to 84hr, it looks like it is heading due east OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck. To be clear, some on here like any and all forms of wintry precip that we can get, including freezing rain, and lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: To be clear, some on here like any and all forms of wintry precip that we can get, including freezing rain, and lots of it Which is why I said most people would not want that. To be honest wishing for bad ice storms is wishing for property damage, economy shut downs, and plenty of other mischief. It is what it is though. Nature will do what it wants to do anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Only thing interesting on the 84 NAM is the DP’s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 pack, That's a long ride up from negative-3F (KRDU) to +32. Will never make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Only thing interesting on the 84 NAM is the DP’s... I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe NAM should handle the cold, dry regime better than the global models. In terms of precip into the dry wedge, it all depends on the storm strength. A good storm with good forcing for accent will easily overcome a dry wedge. A weak one will not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: This is always the one thing that has confused the hell out of me. Super low dew points mean the Air is dry correct? So would we want higher dew points? I agree. I wonder what the wet bulbs would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe Guys, to put this into perspective, the 2002 ice storm started out with a dry wedge and dew-points in the single digits above zero. This is 10 degrees colder than that one. We were in the mid 20's during the height of the storm. This would imply temps in the 20 degree range. If that is true, folks to the south of me will be crushed. We are looking at more in the way of frozen here in western NC. Good luck to you posters down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only thing interesting on the 84 NAM is the DP’s... Why does it seem to hit a wall at the GA/SC border or is it just still in the process of advecting SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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