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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

NAM sand GFS are almost identical as shown above. Very little difference. 

Handles the N/S energy completely different guys. GFS is extra gung ho. 

Edit: that digging of the northern vort is what is assisting the precip totals imo on the gfs. Nam is much more displaced to the north. Without that I’m thinking that the southern stream stays more suppressed. 

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Take a look at that moisture divot off the coast of Jacksonville, FLA on the 84hr NAM though

Good obs. Interesting if it actually heads north from there or if slides harmlessly out. I know I’m extrapolating the Nam but man I’ve been following this basically every 6 hours for days now and am looking for anything that may give us all an advantage. Sorry but I don’t see how it’s similar to the gfs. 

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9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Handles the N/S energy completely different guys. GFS is extra gung ho. 

Edit: that digging of the northern vort is what is assisting the precip totals imo on the gfs. Nam is much more displaced to the north. Without that I’m thinking that the southern stream stays more suppressed. 

 

The digging of the northern vort on the GFS is actually a bias of it and can act to shear out or keep the primary wave from strengthening. Look at the CMC and you can see it keeps the streams separated more like the NAM. It’s good to see more stream separation imo. Otherwise the precip field is nearly identical on the GFS and NAM, it’s definitely not bone dry. 

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

 

The digging of the northern vort on the GFS is actually a bias of it and can act to shear out or keep the primary wave from strengthening. Look at the CMC and you can see it keeps the streams separated more like the NAM. It’s good to see more stream separation imo. Otherwise the precip field is nearly identical on the GFS and NAM, it’s definitely not bone dry. 

Gotcha I see it now. Thanks for the heads up. I see your post (looks like tropical tidbits) I was on instantweather looking at 850s and surface precip and it literally had nothing over TX, whereas the gfs already had moisture blossoming in the same area. 

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NAM temps are colder because it is better at picking up CAD is my guess than GFS

Not sure what to make of the pocket off Jacksonville just yet either but seems to be significant enough for possible LP build maybe??---Have to defer to those more knowledgeable than I

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5 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck.

To be clear, some on here like any and all forms of wintry precip that we can get, including freezing rain, and lots of it 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

To be clear, some on here like any and all forms of wintry precip that we can get, including freezing rain, and lots of it 

Which is why I said most people would not want that. To be honest wishing for bad ice storms is wishing for property damage, economy shut downs, and plenty of other mischief. It is what it is though. Nature will do what it wants to do anyways. 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe 

NAM should handle the cold, dry regime better than the global models. In terms of precip into the dry wedge, it all depends on the storm strength. A good storm with good forcing for accent will easily overcome a dry wedge. A weak one will not

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I've not seen slot of dry wedges, but who knows!? GFS gonna bring the mistletoe 

Guys, to put this into perspective, the 2002 ice storm started out with a dry wedge and dew-points in the single digits above zero. This is 10 degrees colder than that one. We were in the mid 20's during the height of the storm. This would imply temps in the 20 degree range. If that is true, folks to the south of me will be crushed. We are looking at more in the way of frozen here in western NC. Good luck to you posters down that way.

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