NEGa Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, Lookout said: I think we could see a decent portion of the storm as sleet across at least northeast sections of the state...with potentially mostly sleet in the upstate..fortunately. Soundings for the first half of the storm look very cold. canadian and euro wetbulbs suggest temps dropping as low as 23 to 25...with gfs in the upper 20s. But right off the surface, canadian has 925mb temps of -7 to -8c and nearly -10c in the upstate...euro/gfs is -4 to -5c.. So the worst of the freezing rain could end up being in the western half of north ga and parts of north central ga...and sc...depending on exactly how cold the low levels are and the extent of the warm nose. It seems the upstate at least is solidly in the sleet category so far..and ne ga is 50/50...which would make for quite a mess still. From what I can tell at this point the models are showing a pretty classic CAD set up. While the run to run differences are there,if this storm comes to fruition it will most likely be the “typical” ice set up for n ga at least. If the cold air is deep enough maybe a few flakes but probably sleet/frz rain. Will be interesting to see how deep the cold air is and where the warm nose is able to get in enough for the frz rain. With the very low dew points being shown now this could be a sleet fest for ne ga and the upstate until/unless the warm nose works up to change to frz rain i am sure at some point some models will show the “1.5” qpf of ice and people will freak lol. Yes it can happen but the extreme ice amounts usually don’t end up happening. Appears the chances are getting better that a lot of us will see frozen precip this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GEFS is slightly drier this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GEFS is slightly drier this run 18z CMC looks a little stronger with our vort through 84. Doesn’t go out past that on off hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Anyone have the 18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SNOW MAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Here are individual members. Pretty good agreement now of a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 CJ was excited on the 6 o'clock news!! Said Friday event would change to rain, lol! But was about to pop while talking about the Monday possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: Here are individual members. Pretty good agreement now of a decent storm. Just a quick glance and only 3-4 whiffs on there and as you said, lots of decent hits!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CJ was excited on the 6 o'clock news!! Said Friday event would change to rain, lol! But was about to pop while talking about the Monday possibility! Thought it would be too cold for just rain??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CJ was excited on the 6 o'clock news!! Said Friday event would change to rain, lol! But was about to pop while talking about the Monday possibility! He did. He put the upstate at 60% at this point which is pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Just a quick glance and only 3-4 whiffs on there and as you said, lots of decent hits!! Yesterday we had a lot more with nothing, the fact that only 3 or 4 are whiffs now is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Starting to get optimistic here in the east that we may do ok this time around...especially with the second wave....just need those lows to stay offshore and moving ENE OTS to keep most of us in the game.....a 1000 MB low 200 miles east of Hatteras moving ENE is about our perfect track for central and eastern NC.....hell even the OBX will score some accumulating snow with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just a quick glance and only 3-4 whiffs on there and as you said, lots of decent hits!! I count 6 whiffs...11 solid hits. I think we know how this ends. The day 8-9 threat looks promising...I think I have typed the preceding statement a few times over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Mean snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Mean snowfall... Does this map count all frozen as snow..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Mean snowfall... I think something may be wrong with that. Or the GEFS is really amped and it’s a raging sleet fest in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Does this map count all frozen as snow..? No, don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: No, don’t think so. Oh okay so most everyone is sleet and zr. Great. I have high snow hopes for the next system though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think something may be wrong with that. Or the GEFS is really amped and it’s a raging sleet fest in WNC Only pack could bring the Christmas cheer like that! Look at the mean GFS totals through Jan7, from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Looks like 6 million Atlantans are going to be in the dark . Probably would be saved somewhat in the case a severe ice storm occurred by the fact Irma took out a bunch of weaker trees. When we were hit in New York by Sandy in 2012 many places which had outages during Irene a year earlier didn’t have outages the 2nd time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Only pack could bring the Christmas cheer like that! Look at the mean GFS totals through Jan7, from 18z This what you guys want....no way we go the next 2 weeks without a 2-4” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 53 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think something may be wrong with that. Or the GEFS is really amped and it’s a raging sleet fest in WNC Almost had a board wide melt down with this map if counted all frozen as snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Well, unless things change, with such a strong wedge, the only thing that could keep me from a power-outage icestorm is if there isn't as much QPF, which appears to be the only variable that is somewhat up in the air. Also, if this high is really so strong and cold, perhaps my area N of ATL will even be cold enough for some sleet to save me from tree crashing zr. It seems like Gwinnett to Forsyth to Dawson E/NEward always seems to do well in wedges, especially as strong of one as this is being progged to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Does this map count all frozen as snow..? I think that’s a 6 or 12 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: Well, unless things change, with such a strong wedge, the only thing that could keep me from a power-outage icestorm is if there isn't as much QPF, which appears to be the only variable that is somewhat up in the air. Also, if this high is really so strong and cold, perhaps my area N of ATL will even be cold enough for some sleet to save me from tree crashing zr. It seems like Gwinnett to Forsyth to Dawson E/NEward always seems to do well in wedges, especially as strong of one as this is being progged to be. Atleast my area does something well for once........Freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hopefully the mountains will get all snow that ice is power outages for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hammer said: Looks to be a little east of me. I definitely would love some wintry mix ️- and I enjoy Power as much as the next guy. . Pro If this SFC high/wedge is as strong as advertised, you will be getting zr too. Cherokee can get hit hard too, especially the east part. The areas that usually don't get much zr in strong wedges are to your west in Bartow and Nward, and especially NW GA; places like Dalton, Calhoun, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Does anyone have freezing rain amount predictions as of yet? . There's all kind of maps out that would suggest it's lights out for much of North GA but this far out I don't think anyone could really give you anything but a WAG. Personally, I expect to be able to take pics of the ice but I have no clue how much we'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GFS trend with the piece of energy...looks to be a little slower/stronger past few runs and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: This what you guys want....no way we go the next 2 weeks without a 2-4” event. I hope not, but there are plenty of ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 oh my God the German model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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