FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Gfs going hulk mode at 105 wow!! Yep, nice little storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yep, nice little storm: Literally just missed something MUCH larger, as the low off the coast begins to deepen rapidly as it’s pulling away. plenty of time to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: So we should cliff dive then at Lookout’s place? hehe...cliff is probably closed for this round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Last three runs pull the developed low closer and closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Should be some juiced up ensemble members here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Should be some juiced up ensemble members here in a bit. Yep, i'm betting so, even though this run was slightly drier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Lookout it appears this area is gonna have a nasty ice storm...not what we really want. Sleet is fine but ice can stay away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Okay Happy Birthday to me if we actually end up with snow here...I saw the ice but did not see the snow totals...hope more snow less ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: 4” of ice... I will freaking cry That would only equate to .4” of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. Snow ratios should be higher than the standard 10:1 ratios, so this could be a nice treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is from 12z..look at how deep the atmosphere is saturated. You're going to do better than usual with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: 4” of ice... I will freaking cry No it generates 10:1 snow totals from anything that is frozen (snow and sleet) or freezing rain. So your probably looking at .4 to .5 qpf of freezing rain. Still a bad ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Round 2 is spooling up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1053mb HP over Nebraska at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Round 2 is spooling up Yep..slower too, which what we need there. Stronger wave over N Mex. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Way colder at the 850 level out to 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Boy the 12z Euro really moist here. (Not)! ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MWK LAT= 36.45 LON= -80.55 ELE= 1247 12Z DEC24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 24-DEC 6.0 3.1 1020 75 13 0.00 569 552 SUN 18Z 24-DEC 7.8 2.3 1017 70 17 0.00 566 552 MON 00Z 25-DEC 6.6 2.0 1014 78 36 0.00 562 550 MON 06Z 25-DEC 4.9 -4.6 1015 59 2 0.00 552 540 MON 12Z 25-DEC -2.6 -12.6 1024 45 2 0.00 556 538 MON 18Z 25-DEC 0.3 -11.4 1026 33 4 0.00 558 537 TUE 00Z 26-DEC -0.8 -9.2 1028 42 23 0.00 559 536 TUE 06Z 26-DEC -1.2 -4.1 1030 42 68 0.00 558 535 TUE 12Z 26-DEC -2.7 -5.5 1033 56 92 0.00 559 533 TUE 18Z 26-DEC 3.2 -5.0 1032 39 63 0.00 560 534 WED 00Z 27-DEC -0.9 -4.5 1032 66 38 0.00 561 536 WED 06Z 27-DEC -2.4 -3.8 1031 68 47 0.00 562 537 WED 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -3.6 1031 71 65 0.00 561 537 WED 18Z 27-DEC 5.1 -6.3 1030 44 22 0.00 561 537 THU 00Z 28-DEC -1.8 -4.9 1033 53 12 0.00 563 537 THU 06Z 28-DEC -6.3 -5.2 1037 39 10 0.00 563 535 THU 12Z 28-DEC -7.8 -6.0 1038 34 17 0.00 565 535 THU 18Z 28-DEC -1.9 -6.3 1036 23 25 0.00 563 535 FRI 00Z 29-DEC -4.7 -5.7 1035 37 87 0.00 562 535 FRI 06Z 29-DEC -4.8 -5.5 1033 34 100 0.00 561 535 FRI 12Z 29-DEC -5.2 -4.9 1031 50 89 0.02 559 535 FRI 18Z 29-DEC -0.6 -2.8 1027 41 83 0.00 557 536 SAT 00Z 30-DEC -2.4 -1.6 1025 56 43 0.00 556 536 SAT 06Z 30-DEC -2.4 -0.7 1021 58 54 0.00 552 535 SAT 12Z 30-DEC -2.5 -0.7 1017 67 73 0.00 551 538 SAT 18Z 30-DEC 7.2 -2.8 1007 48 55 0.00 544 538 SUN 00Z 31-DEC -7.1 -17.0 1016 39 5 0.02 535 523 SUN 06Z 31-DEC -12.8 -22.8 1022 36 20 0.00 530 514 SUN 12Z 31-DEC -14.6 -22.0 1026 41 14 0.00 531 511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck. I will take ice. Anything wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Round 2 a big hit as well via the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 23 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, nice little storm: It’s rare to see the GFS have the wedge at this range back that far into GA. It usually is badly underestimated even inside 72 and rarely has it to ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Round 2 a big hit as well via the 18z GFS need just a tiny shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think it would be easier if we keep round 2 focused to the other thread? It’s getting confusing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. Jackpot band creeping north and stronger every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The ensembles are going to be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, GAdawg said: Lookout it appears this area is gonna have a nasty ice storm...not what we really want. Sleet is fine but ice can stay away. I think we could see a decent portion of the storm as sleet across at least northeast sections of the state...with potentially mostly sleet in the upstate..fortunately. Soundings for the first half of the storm look very cold. canadian and euro wetbulbs suggest temps dropping as low as 23 to 25...with gfs in the upper 20s. But right off the surface, canadian has 925mb temps of -7 to -8c and nearly -10c in the upstate...euro/gfs is -4 to -5c.. So the worst of the freezing rain could end up being in the western half of north ga and parts of north central ga...and sc...depending on exactly how cold the low levels are and the extent of the warm nose. It seems the upstate at least is solidly in the sleet category so far..and ne ga is 50/50...which would make for quite a mess still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: I think we could see a decent portion of the storm as sleet across at least northeast sections of the state...with potentially mostly sleet in the upstate..fortunately. Soundings for the first half of the storm look very cold. canadian and euro wetbulbs suggest temps dropping as low as 23 to 25...with gfs in the upper 20s. But right off the surface, canadian has 925mb temps of -7 to -8c and nearly -10c in the upstate...euro/gfs is -4 to -5c.. So the worst of the freezing rain could end up being in the western half of north ga and parts of north central ga...and sc...depending on exactly how cold the low levels are and the extent of the warm nose. It seems the upstate at least is solidly in the sleet category so far..and ne ga is 50/50...which would make for quite a mess still. Hoping to get a front end thump of snow before going to sleet. Think the models have this starting Thursday night? Give us the 12 hour early finger of moisture, hopefully Thursday morning is good and cold to start!? Mid 20s should do, with some single digit dp's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hoping to get a front end thump of snow before going to sleet. Think the models have this starting Thursday night? Give us the 12 hour early finger of moisture, hopefully Thursday morning is good and cold to start!? Mid 20s should do, with some single digit dp's! Oh yes the finger! Should hopefully see that develope on the Nam by tomorrow. But with these dew points could be mostly virga. But i like your thinking and wouldnt surprise me a bit if it doesnt start as light snow thursday by lunch just looking at the timing off todays runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18 hours straight of ice, time to have me a store run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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