mrdaddyman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 18z nam looks like a whiff for eastern NC on the 27th This is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Isn't that the first wave where it was preferred not to be strong so the 2nd would have more punch? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: Everybody jump: Reminds me of this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: CMC doesn't give much love this far west, looks like a eastern Carolina's storm. Wait for the NW trend. It will happen. Aleays does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Wait for the NW trend. It will happen. Aleays does. You get a NW trend and then you get nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Isn't that the first wave where it was preferred not to be strong so the 2nd would have more punch? Yes! Good signs early on the 18z happy hour runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 4 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: Wait for the NW trend. It will happen. Aleays does. You get a NW trend and then you get nothing but rain. Not in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GEPS still showing a strong storm signal. Mean is up overall. 00Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Sure is a confusing system. I just want snow. Seems like that’s impossible with this where I live. Either ice or rain. Huh? There is no model showing anything close to rain for GSP. Most models have mostly sleet falling, some of the more suppressed one's are showing mainly snow or a sleet/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 WPC has spoken: WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE SPECIFICS AND LONGER TERM RAMIFICATIONS/TRANSITIONS WITHIN THIS WINTRY PATTERN INCLUDING ICE/SNOW THREATS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER GRIDS SHOW A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW PROBABILITIES THROUGH MID-LATER WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN EMERGING WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN OVER AR, GA, AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND ANY POSSIBLE TROWAL/NORLUN TROUGH-LIKE FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Sure is a confusing system. I just want snow. Seems like that’s impossible with this where I live. Either ice or rain. I think this threat is storm or no storm. Not sure the NW trend is applicable here. We ice/snow or we're dry. Very concerned for this threat seeing the UKMET went dry and the Euro is really nothing to write home about. Even the ensembles. I know the CMC did well on the last event (not mby) but I like to have the UKMET and EURO ensembles honking. Hopefully we see some big trends the other way tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: I think this threat is storm or no storm. Not sure the NW trend is applicable here. We ice/snow or we're dry. Very concerned for this threat seeing the UKMET went dry and the Euro is really nothing to write home about. Even the ensembles. I know the CMC did well on the last event (not mby) but I like to have the UKMET and EURO ensembles honking. Hopefully we see some big trends the other way tonight and tomorrow. This is somewhat typical.... there will most likely be an up-tick in the QPF as we approach verification time. This doesn't always happen, but it is almost expected in the 24-48 hour mark. It will not be long before the storm gets into some of the the high resolution models' time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 German model has good qpf and we know the past few winters it has actually been solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 If I am remembering correctly, the 2/2004 storm was in this same position. I dont think we can even approach the edge of the cliff until this thing gets onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: German model has good qpf and we know the past few winters it has actually been solid. Yes it does and yes it has. It did great with last years storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The german model has almost the entire event with temps in the teens, with it dropping to around 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 German model doesnt account for ice does it? If not, you can discount anything south of the VA border as far as accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: If I am remembering correctly, the 2/2004 storm was in this same position. I dont think we can even approach the edge of the cliff until this thing gets onshore. Yep, and once within 72, I remember watching the mid and low.level temps gradually trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 and for what its worth, the german model has light snow passing through Wednesday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, kvegas-wx said: German model doesnt account for ice does it? If not, you can discount anything south of the VA border as far as accums. It does appear to actually. It just has a strong initial thump of heavy snow, about 6-9 hours of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At 66 the GFS looks a little stronger with our wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Yep, and once within 72, I remember watching the mid and low.level temps gradually trend colder. Wasn't the 2/2004 storm a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: At 66 the GFS looks a little stronger with our wave. Stronger and further north it seems so far. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs amplifying the N/S big time at 87. Don’t think it’s what we want to see. edit: welp I stand corrected. 18z looks much better compared to 12z at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Chris Justus update: "Morning models indicate ice threat Thursday night and Friday is increasing. Beyond that, if the models are to be believed we would have another shot at wintry weather on News Years Eve Sunday, one week from today. Temperatures New Years Day morning could dip into the upper teens in the Upstate, single digits for the mountains." He will be steaming live on Facebook at 5:15pm eastern today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Gfs amplifying the N/S big time at 87. Don’t think it’s what we want to see. At hour 96 looks real similar to the time range at 12z. Maybe a little more precip building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: At hour 96 looks real similar to the time range at 12z. Maybe a little more precip building. I think we'll end up with a slightly better result. Not as good as what we've seen on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is going to be a better run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: This is going to be a better run... Gfs going hulk mode at 105 wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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