msuwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: CMC doesn't give much love this far west, looks like a eastern Carolina's storm. We’ve reached that point prior to a storm. In the end, we all know 9 times out of 10 Frosty winds up shoveling out a foot. Seriously though, all of this is within the noise range in this type of complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The wave pass on the CMC is really good. It's ensemble mean looks good Wave pass on GFS has improved a little the last two runs...not as good as CMC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, msuwx said: We’ve reached that point prior to a storm. In the end, we all know 9 times out of 10 Frosty winds up shoveling out a foot. Seriously though, all of this is within the noise range in this type of complex setup. Ha, the stock Frosty post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ice down to southern GA on the CMC...that's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Ice down to southern GA on the CMC...that's crazy I agree. That would be historic in and of itself, however, the CMC is on an island with that thinking. But... might as well post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I can only see the jma out to 72hrs. But it is definitely going to be super amped/ wet with our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I can only see the jma out to 72hrs. But it is definitely going to be super amped/ wet with our storm. Is the JMA biased to be too amped? I was thinking it was, even though it was one of the leaders with last Januarys storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I can only see the jma out to 72hrs. But it is definitely going to be super amped/ wet with our storm. 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Is the JMA biased to be too amped? I was thinking it was, even though it was one of the leaders with last Januarys storm. THIS! Anytime you want a trend more north and west, you want the JMA to be super amped, which yes it does have a bias. Lends credence to the fact that this thing is far from over from showing its final solution, especially with ensembles so wet on multiple models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 From 48 to 72 jma is wet in Lousiana,Al,Miss. Looks like .75, wating on the 96 panel. Cold is in place top to bottom in my area and a few others as well it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Mack, how did the GEFS handle our early December backend dusting event? Thanks I think it's mean actually had us with 2-3" of snow/ice, it did well on the NW ATL bullseye tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro out to 72. Weak wave is in Wash state....nothing impressive looking with it thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: THIS! Anytime you want a trend more north and west, you want the JMA to be super amped, which yes it does have a bias. Lends credence to the fact that this thing is far from over from showing its final solution, especially with ensembles so wet on multiple models. You still holding out hope for us in SWVA or should we give this one to the RDU guys? NAVGEM was a total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro at 84 a little flatter then 0z with the energy. Don’t want to lose the Euro and UK...2 best scoring models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The EURO looks awfully flat at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro out to 102...it's certainly not amped up. Could end up like UKMet or maybe it gets going late again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro looks a lot like the UKMet at 500mb. But at 111, it has wintry mix N and Central GA into central SC save the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At 114, light snow in W NC and southern NC...mix still going in same areas of GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro gets going decently again this run, just late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Always hope lol!! Seen this show so many times where we get all pissy and then the trend starts happening. The models are dropping like flies. No model gives us over an inch at this point. I'd like to say "Well let's turn to the 12/31 event" but at this stage it's looking like the 29th threat at the same stage so who's to say we don't lose both? Troubling times ahead it seems. If we go 0-2 or 0-3 I may end it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro gets going decently again this run, just late I stopped looking..Mack said we were ledge shopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Everybody jump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is exactly where I want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Everybody jump: I think that snow hole in the NW Piedmont is Frosty's place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Still looks like we down in the ATL area are looking at a legitimate ice storm threat despite the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Everybody jump: For joy? Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: This is exactly where I want it x2, perfectly positioned 4 days out. They always come back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: x2, perfectly positioned 4 days out. They always come back north. I’ve been in so many day four/five jackpots that never pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Guys it’s more or less a timing issue with the Euro and gfs for that matter. If it gets going sooner watch out. Too dismissive still on a lot of people’s ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 JMA turned out like I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Everybody jump: For joy, yes. That's exactly where I want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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