BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: CMC round 1... This would be an ideal setup. Wave revs up late to avoid pulling a primary low up the TN valley. Really good ratios too. I can’t mention that enough. -10 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 A third or even fourth one at hr186? Goodness. I need to create these threads more often. How do the temps look on the latest model runs for this next week? Colder? Warmer? Same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 UK looks like it whiffs...but can't tell for sure until we get precip panels at 12:30pm. That isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS lets out a lot of leading energy from the wave over the SW which allows the sfc low to race ahead of the HP. We want to see the wave hold its own to give the HP time to move east. (This is for the new years event.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 850s aren’t quite as cold as I thought(-7) but it’s also falling into surface temps in the teens(!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS & CMC Totals for Both Systems Combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GEFS looks great, 85 special all the way down to GA. Mack special really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: So the UK caved? How much of a difference is it? Take it with a grain of salt because it’s hard to tell with what I have so far but it looks like it has didlypoo for even GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS looks great, 85 special all the way down to GA. Mack special really. Still hasn't loaded on WxBell, how about I-40 north? Any love at all? And so the UK has totally lost the storm? Am I reading that correctly from others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Does it look like to you guys that The GFS and CMC model backed off precipitation a bit? I haven’t compared the qpf. But just looking at the P-type maps and comparing them to previous runs it looks weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Still hasn't loaded on WxBell, how about I-40 north? Any love at all? And so the UK has totally lost the storm? Am I reading that correctly from others? Have to wait another 15 for the UK but it didn’t look amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 48 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Really good ratios too. I can’t mention that enough. -10 850s yeah this is the look we want right here, here in the east we are cold enough for all snow and will do well under the heavier bands and then inland you guys will have plenty of QPF left with high rates for lots of powder....would expect yall to do better than what the CMC shows for totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GEFS weaker with the primary and stronger with the coastal low. That's good to limit the ice impact, better for high ratio snow coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This has the makings of an eastern Carolina special--and they deserve it. It makes sense given the pattern. If a storm is to buck the NW trend, this is probably the one. Good luck to all regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ukie has the shortwave north over WA at 60-72,not like Oregon 12 hours ago. Big difference it doesn't dig and amp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wow said: GEFS weaker with the primary and stronger with the coastal low. That's good to limit the ice impact, better for high ratio snow coverage. Worse for I-77 and west, if a coastal is the main show. Precip never makes it back to here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12z GEFS thru 192 ...be aware this includes ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z GEFS thru 192 ...be aware this includes ice Can see the next round in TX! Good times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Worse for I-77 and west, if a coastal is the main show. Precip never makes it back to here! Do you want ice? Getting more precip from a stronger primary low sitting in KY is what you'd get. I'd rather take less precip and snow with 20:1 ratios falling in sub-20 degree air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Can see the next round in TX! Good times ahead! Mack, how did the GEFS handle our early December backend dusting event? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Does it look like to you guys that The GFS and CMC model backed off precipitation a bit? I haven’t compared the qpf. But just looking at the P-type maps and comparing them to previous runs it looks weaker. CMC had very heavy amounts in the Southern Half of SC - 1.2". Overall, the QPF amounts changes looked very meager compared to the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Anyone have the individual snow maps from gefs for this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ukie is bone dry,zippo. Had over 1'' 12 hours ago to not a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: Do you want ice? Getting more precip from a stronger primary low sitting in KY is what you'd get. I'd rather take less precip and snow with 20:1 ratios falling in sub-20 degree air. I won't have temps in the low 20s, and coastals 99% of the time, don't get precip back here, like Matthew for example! Not even drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie is bone dry,zippo. Had over 1'' 12 hours ago to not a drop. If the Euro is dry, let panic ensue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Happy hour with the CMC today...round 2. Thanks man! UGH...wish we could get a better cold thickness top to bottom and lessen the ICE aspect of the storm. We still have plenty of time and chances to see the track become more optimum. Looks like a widespread shot at wintry weather for most of us SE Peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 CMC doesn't give much love this far west, looks like a eastern Carolina's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 As impressive as the GEFS is with moisture, it makes you wonder how long it’ll take for the OP to reflect as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, broken024 said: Anyone have the individual snow maps from gefs for this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie is bone dry,zippo. Had over 1'' 12 hours ago to not a drop. I like the ideas the UKMet presents for SE winter storms, a lot....but it is prone to do this dance of amped run to suppressed run, etc....it can be a little jumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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