lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Let’s get it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Thanks for starting separate thread. Cleans things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 What a damn dumpster fire disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I know the NAM is still outside it's range but it does have a colder look for the SE at hour 84. As others have stated it will probably lead the way with any CAD configuration and warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 HP same strength just moving a little faster: GFS Precip about the same HR 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 108 this storm is suppressed. Some light snow over central NC but this would have to get going fast to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The storm is completely gone on the 12z GFS lmfao!! Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS: poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well I hope this is about the time when the GFS usually loses the storm only to bring it back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: The storm is completely gone on the 12z GFS lmfao!! Unreal. Yeah crazy. The only thing I can say is we've seen the models do this in the past at this particular time range. I think the Christmas storm model runs did the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 oh GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 @FallsLake that is the first thing I actually thought of was the time period right now, basically 5 days out. I do think it will look better than this crap when all is said and done. I truly do trust the CMC and NAVGEM over the GFS lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 IS the CMC frozen? Been stuck at 96 for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, CADEffect said: IS the CMC frozen? Been stuck at 96 for a while now. It's moving again. At 120 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC is still a nice hit. It does miss the first wave but gives us this for the second: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CMC is still a nice hit. It does miss the first wave but gives us this for the second: Good to see it staying consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I believe the 1-3storm is going to be a big storm on this run, looking good at 172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Hr 192 snow breaking out over ATL and N Central GA. Miller A incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well thats interesting...and confusing :GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Nevermind, squashed and strung out for the 12z. All of the players are here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The Ukie and NAVGEM will save this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? I think at this point, it feels like EVERY run (at least of the GFS) is an outlier. So all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? Again, not being disrespectful. I kinda have the same problem. The last night 0z GFS and Canadian gave me (in North TX) a nice ice storm next week. But both showing nothing now To be honest it’s been showing it for days, along with ensemble support. It began to lose it last night and now we have what we have today. All is not lost and GFS is notorious for pulling this. Good to see we still have CMC support on our side. Really need the EURO to show something at least decent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's starting to feel like the cold is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's starting to feel like the cold is overdone. With those dew points showed above, there's plenty of cold. Even if the high didn't set up correctly or jumped off the coast it would web bulb down below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS is giving me about 40 to 50 percent chance of .5 QPF by day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GEFS is giving me about 40 to 50 percent chance of .5 QPF by day 6. Harder to make out what the GEFS is showing but it looks like temps for RDU don't go above freezing for the entire event and there's ~ 1.25 of precip. So a big storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anyone have gefs snow mean for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Posted in the other thread, but FWIW, the 12z GFS ensemble mean was snowier than the 6z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here’s a sampling of ensemble members from the 12z GEFS. As you can see the OP GFS isn’t well supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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