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Dec 22-23 Snow/Ice Observations


moneypitmike

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats @CT Rain, the latest HRRR is catching on to the cold and now drags the 0.1-0.25" ice contour down to the station.

In four hours it went from having just elevations in Litchfield Co with FZRA, to almost the whole county greater than 0.1"

Love it. I’m excited to measure some accretion in the AM!

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Classic case of the models not ageostrophic with the sfc winds enough....it prob happens 95% of the time in these setups. The 5% of the time they are right, it's usually for the wrong reason...that they busted on the pressure field in the direction of helping their crappy wind direction forecasts. Even the short term guidance like the HRRR still had BOS with a NNE wind at 05z on their runs a few hours ago. They only are barely figuring it out with an hour of lead time.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic case of the models not ageostrophic with the sfc winds enough....it prob happens 95% of the time in these setups. The 5% of the time they are right, it's usually for the wrong reason...that they busted on the pressure field in the direction of helping their crappy wind direction forecasts. Even the short term guidance like the HRRR still had BOS with a NNE wind at 05z on their runs a few hours ago. They only are barely figuring it out with an hour of lead time.

I think the real problem is going to be the CTRV once the steady stuff arrives. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think the real problem is going to be the CTRV once the steady stuff arrives. 

Assuming the GFS/RGEM are mostly right with some steadier stuff arriving in the morning...I'm not sure how anyone away from the coast is going to be above freezing. The GFS precip scenario would be worse as its heavier...RGEM keeps the precip lighter. There is absolutely nothing to dislodge the cold...the only thing that can offset it is latent heat release, but there won't be much of that overnight with little precip...ad even if there was, we still have a good dewpoint drain going on right now to replenish the supply.

 

The good ageostrophic drain doesn't really start to break down until mid afternoon, and prob NW of 84 and 128 it's still going to be obscenely stubborn.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Assuming the GFS/RGEM are mostly right with some steadier stuff arriving in the morning...I'm not sure how anyone away from the coast is going to be above freezing. The GFS precip scenario would be worse as its heavier...RGEM keeps the precip lighter. There is absolutely nothing to dislodge the cold...the only thing that can offset it is latent heat release, but there won't be much of that overnight with little precip...ad even if there was, we still have a good dewpoint drain going on right now to replenish the supply.

 

The good ageostrophic drain doesn't really start to break down until mid afternoon, and prob NW of 84 and 128 it's still going to be obscenely stubborn.

That's ugly bro, thanks

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2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Live right next to Logan in East Boston. Got home from work 30 min ago everything was wet. Since that time everything has frozen over outside. 31 and dropping 

So glad my relatives cleared customs and we got out of there by 9:00. Just missed the freeze. 

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