Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:09 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Pretty remarkable how far they’ve moved m, and the differences at 500... all 3 of 00z... nam/GFS/GGEM... cake very strong and West.. not far from a good storm even to NYC Expand Must be that data sparse region near Alaska people were talking about. New data gets ingested for all model runs now or just 0z/12z? (Maybe that's where the dropsonde data gets inputted?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Same thing happened with the last 2 snow events. Models really didn’t begin to get a handle on what was going to happen (at least somewhat of a concensus) until the piece of energy made it closer to the coast and/or the northern US/Canadian border. Perhaps this is what’s happening with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It certainly looks like this will be another inside 48hr affair . There's probably going to be zero consistency until the day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Major shift on GEFS... amped coastal tucked and cold for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Idc what surface maps show, this is a snowstorm for most here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This was GFs BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The UKMET through 72 looked pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hard to tell with my maps but Euro looks in line with other 0z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1-2" inches NW the city on the Euro. EWR on east maybe some mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Could be a bigger event. Blocking on models continues to build over Greenland next few days. In other words, models trend toward it shorter term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 NaM dug our energy further south, was a tad slower.. and stronger.. Hudson Valley does well as does SWCT and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:42 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NaM dug our energy further south, was a tad slower.. and stronger.. Hudson Valley does well as does SWCT and NYC Expand Nam is further west with rain to snow for the coast and snow inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:42 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NaM dug our energy further south, was a tad slower.. and stronger.. Hudson Valley does well as does SWCT and NYC Expand Billy can you or anyone else post pic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nam xmas On 12/22/2017 at 2:47 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: Billy can you or anyone else post pic ? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:48 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam xmas Expand Thanks,,,now if only this were to hold true to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Check out how the GFS has been trending (last 7 runs ending w/ today's 12Z) w/ the shortwave that is still over AK/BC, also note the subtle differences with the ridge over Cuba: This system is probably not done trending stronger yet. It appears the 96h 00Z UKMET has the low farther west than any other piece of guidance, so I'm guessing it is more amped/west despite not being able to perfectly interpolate between 72-96h. In my opinion, this is probably another rain event for NYC. Could be a really nice storm for the interior and perhaps a short-lived blizzard in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 3:39 PM, purduewx80 said: Check out how the GFS has been trending (last 7 runs ending w/ today's 12Z) w/ the shortwave that is still over AK/BC, also note the subtle differences with the ridge over Cuba: This system is probably not done trending stronger yet. It appears the 96h 00Z UKMET has the low farther west than any other piece of guidance, so I'm guessing it is more amped/west despite not being able to perfectly interpolate between 72-96h. In my opinion, this is probably another rain event for NYC. Could be a really nice storm for the interior and perhaps a short-lived blizzard in New England. Expand so if you are a snow lover in NYC you want that low to be more EAST am I correct ? Also as asked yesterday I think the Ukimet did a decent job with the last several events , am I mistaken ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ha. The Nam tickling 6" out my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gfs is mostly all rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 White xmas incoming for the interior... GFS @ hr 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Great trends for NE and inland areas if you want snow, not so much near the coast. On the 12z GFS verbatim, the s/w was stronger and slower out west and the lead s/w exited faster, resulting in higher heights out east and the s/w tilting negative faster. This allows the initial inland low to be stronger and hold on longer before the PVA hits the coast and initiates stronger cyclogenesis along the coast. Theres still 2 ways this can happen for the coast. The initial S/w is slower suppressing heights along the east coast and forcing the energy from the storm southward. This would likely result in a weaker storm at our latitude, but a colder one. the second way is this things wraps up very quickly and you're able to get into a well developed wrap-around... those seemingly never work out though edit: also the S/W is slower out west allowing for more spacing. This also results in a further west solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 3:47 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: so if you are a snow lover in NYC you want that low to be more EAST am I correct ? Also as asked yesterday I think the Ukimet did a decent job with the last several events , am I mistaken ? Expand east might work, but the 12Z rgem/ggem is a scenario where dynamic cooling could overwhelm the warm boundary layer - this is dependent on precip becoming moderate to heavy as the low/trof transitions through. even then, snow would have trouble sticking despite it occurring pre-dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 3:53 PM, Sn0waddict said: Gfs is mostly all rain for the coast Expand It's rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nice trends lately for inland areas, but the stronger low will mean more warm air on the coast and probably slush or rain for much of it there. Hopefully the end can snow for a little by me, enough to cover the ground anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:34 PM, jm1220 said: Nice trends lately for inland areas, but the stronger low will mean more warm air on the coast and probably slush or rain for much of it there. Hopefully the end can snow for a little by me, enough to cover the ground anyway. Expand Depends on where the low strengthens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:08 PM, purduewx80 said: east might work, but the 12Z rgem/ggem is a scenario where dynamic cooling could overwhelm the warm boundary layer - this is dependent on precip becoming moderate to heavy as the low/trof transitions through. even then, snow would have trouble sticking despite it occurring pre-dawn. Expand I think this trends even further west, in fact far enough west to the point where even my area in Rockland County rains. The trend so far this winter, and the conditions haven’t changed at all, is storms moving west in the last 48 hours before they hit due to the WAR/+NAO influence. The Euro may have had it right 2 days ago when it was west and amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:42 PM, Snow88 said: Depends on where the low strengthens Expand It would really have to ramp up quickly to make it cold enough for us. Could happen but I’m not optimistic. If I had to guess I’d say the city and coast see an inch or less at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is looking like a no go, agree with Snowman on this one, don't see why this won't trend further west. This is a late bloomer that's chasing the cold, not good for more than a few mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1-3"/2-4" for those around Rt.78 and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gefs are strong and tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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