WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Post the discussion here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Negative NAO sneaking up.. dont underestimate it, always overperforms when +10mb leads last minute trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 euro took a big step towards the cold/weak solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: euro took a big step towards the cold/weak solution What's it looking like now for Christmas? There's been a lot of bickering and I just want to know what it's trending towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It’s a weak system, NE gets a decent storm.. but colder... 1-2 inches tops until you get well north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Despite all the misinformation going around, the models are trending towards each other - the previously-amped ECMWF to the previously-flat GFS and vice versa. As modeled today, some mood flakes are possible in the NYC metro Monday morning. Accumulations would be difficult to achieve with the boundary layer still above freezing. If better forcing develops earlier than modeled, perhaps up to an inch of wet snow is possible. The problem with all this is that the shortwave responsible is over a data-sparse region of the Alaska panhandle/NE Pac/Canada. The uber-amped ECMWF from 12Z/20th is probably off the table, but there is still room to trend in either direction from today's modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Despite all the misinformation going around, the models are trending towards each other - the previously-amped ECMWF to the previously-flat GFS and vice versa. As modeled today, some mood flakes are possible in the NYC metro Monday morning. Accumulations would be difficult to achieve with the boundary layer still above freezing. If better forcing develops earlier than modeled, perhaps up to an inch of wet snow is possible. The problem with all this is that the shortwave responsible is over a data-sparse region of the Alaska panhandle/NE Pac/Canada. The uber-amped ECMWF from 12Z/20th is probably off the table, but there is still room to trend in either direction from today's modeling. Please post more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The data sparse issue is interesting-sometimes we see big changes 24-48 hrs for this reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Please post more often Seconded thirded fourthed fifthed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Rgem brings our wave through a tad slower, and the boundary is closer to coast, however it sets up a classic W to E precip field.. even Long Island snows, NEPA gets shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nam looks like it’ll play catch-up at 500 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rgem brings our wave through a tad slower, and the boundary is closer to coast, however it sets up a classic W to E precip field.. even Long Island snows, NEPA gets shafted The general zone that gets shafted in these setups usually lies between ABE and FRG. It’s just a question of how wide the zone is. Sometimes it’s 30 miles, sometimes it’s 60-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS looks to hold where it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS looks to hold where it was at 12z It's only out to 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's only out to 45 hours http://www.weatheronline.co.uk Fully loaded here, theres no precip maps, so you have to read 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk Fully loaded here I have stormvista out to 66 looks similiar to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 looks a littler flatter, overall doesnt look great to me at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 the ULL is much further east which is good, woulda looked good if that ULL placement was on the stronger euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Need the energy to dig but I will take snow showers for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 a dusting to all, and to all a goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 big run to run shifts, lots of time, lots of outcomes on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 0z probably shifts wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I would be happy with a dusting. Any more and I have to do snow removal which would suck on Christmas. Going with the seasonal trend I expect the models to become more amped as we move closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 we've had two events trend west inside 48 hours this dec and they both had an issue with missing alaskan raobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 this is in far southeastern alaska. note the sounding time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is in far southeastern alaska. note the sounding time I forgot how to read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nam with a nice trend towards a less flat more amped solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 999 just south of the cape and east of Long Island.. really nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gfs and cmc trended west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc trended west Pretty remarkable how far they’ve moved m, and the differences at 500... all 3 of 00z... nam/GFS/GGEM... cake very strong and West.. not far from a good storm even to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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