The Iceman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 been out all day, has guidance brought this back yet? these big storms always seem to get lost in the mid range and brought back in the 120 hours range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 Lucy is healed and has returned in a BIG way. Went from every model showing a monster storm and epic pattern to a clipper system chance Saturday and an early breakdown of the not-so-epic pattern next week. Progressive patterns with a raging Northern Jet can still get us to avg or even AN snow this year but I had no idea how challenging this pattern was going to be on model forecasts more than 84 hours out. If its any consolation, the Euro and Ukie both have 4-8" across part of SE PA via the clipper/inverted trof/norlun feature on Saturday. Maybe some snow works out via a completely different setup tho I am extremely skeptical......extremely. I dont even want to consider looking at anything past late week at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Not looking good. Story of my youth .....cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Mt Holly early am today on late week threat....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Arctic high pressure continues to build into the region with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for most of this week. Highs top off in the teens across the Poconos and northern NJ, low to mid 20s for most of southeast PA and central and southern NJ, and in the mid to upper 20s across the Delmarva Wednesday through Friday, with the coldest day being Thursday. Overnight lows during this time will range from the single digits to the teens, and as a result, the corresponding lowest wind chills will range from as low as 15 below zero in the Poconos, and from the single digits to as low as 5 below elsewhere. Conditions will be dry through Thursday night, and then the high moves offshore. Low confidence in the forecast from Friday through Sunday. There are stark differences between the 00Z operational GFS and the 00Z ECMWF. The GFS has a weak clipper system passing through the region Friday, and then low pressure forms well offshore Friday night. High pressure then builds into the region Saturday, followed by another weak clipper system Saturday night, and then low pressure forms off the Southeast U.S. Sunday night and Monday. The ECMWF, however, is slower to bring the clipper system on Friday, and does not bring it into the region until late Friday night. With a deeper and sharper upper trough, a secondary low forms off the Mid-Atlantic coast and phases with the approaching clipper system to produce a more significant coastal low over the area Saturday and Saturday night. The CMC- GDPS is dry through Friday, and then the clipper system passes through on Saturday and intensifies offshore on Sunday. As a result, in terms of sensible weather, will forecast slight chance/low chance PoPs for Friday, and then chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday, with PoPs lowering into Sunday. Will keep forecast relatively similar to previous forecast due to this low confidence. Stay tuned, as there is the potential for development late in the week/over the weekend. High pressure then returns for the start of the new week with cold and dry conditions with temperatures again some 15-20 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro has accumulating snow in the region on Dec 30. Clipper merges with energy off SE coast and intensifies as it heads North. Places farther N and E do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 I feel like our area is in a Ryan Howard pattern where the atmosphere keeps throwing pitches low and away every other day and we keep swinging and missing. Eventually we will connect....maybe not a monster shot but an rbi double more likely. But you never know when we'll grab a hold of one and send it over the fence either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I wouldnt discount this one yet.Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Looks like a Clipper will deliver the goods Saturday with just a touch of coastal influence. Guidance zeroing in on a 1-2" look for SE PA but with 15:1 ratios probably closer to 2-4" of powder/fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 0z RGEM is beautiful.....light clipper snows turning moderate with coastal enhancement over SE PA. Has a general 2-5" with 15:1 ratios. Every model is now on board. Even the dang CRAS throws us 2-4". Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM is a fluffy 1-3"/2-4" (assuming 15:1 ratios or higher) across much of Eastern PA. Wouldnt be surprised to see small upticks in qpf starting with afternoon models especially at 0z so as long as the track holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM is a fluffy 1-3"/2-4" (assuming 15:1 ratios or higher) across much of Eastern PA. Wouldnt be surprised to see small upticks in qpf starting with afternoon models especially at 0z so as long as the track holds.Ralph, how's CNJ looking with the latest guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ralph, how's CNJ looking with the latest guidance?Depends which model u trust most but the hi res models like the 3k nam and rgem enhance the precip when the vortmax hits the coast which in laymans terms could yield max totals East of say I476 in SE PA. Again, that is pending the guidance being right. Few inches though looks likely. Eta: Here's a pic of what Im trying to describe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Depends which model u trust most but the hi res models like the 3k nam and rgem enhance the precip when the vortmax hits the coast which in laymans terms could yield max totals East of say I476 in SE PA. Again, that is pending the guidance being right. Few inches though looks likely. Eta: Here's a pic of what Im trying to describe:Ralph, thx much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 12k NAM is in with 1-3" in SE PA based on 15:1-18:1 ratios with temps upper teens to around 20F. Sign me up....could get me over 10" for December. I would take that ANY year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Snow amounts this morning: 6abc and nbc10 going with a coating -2" and CBS3 predicting coating to 1-2" so basically the same. All and all sounds correct. I don't think anyone will get shafted completely nor do I think anyone will exceed 2". If so, just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Looks like a general c-2" deal for tomorrow with some isolated spots up to 3". Temps around 20 to low 20s should keep ratios around 15:1. Broomable fluff event :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The Jan 4 2018 event looks to be developing off shore according to 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Bluescat1 said: The Jan 4 2018 event looks to be developing off shore according to 0Z Euro. It doesn't look real good but I wouldn't take anything super seriously till Sunday at the earliest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Damn NAM got drier for immediate N and W of Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Damn NAM got drier for immediate N and W of Philly...Yeah, definitely trending drier. Wish this were more of a true clipper and not a jet level disturbance moving across. Might squeeze out most of the precip West of the mountains. Sticking with a c-2" tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Damn NAM got drier for immediate N and W of Philly... Yeah, definitely trending drier. Wish this were more of a true clipper and not a jet level disturbance moving across. Might squeeze out most of the precip West of the mountains. Sticking with a c-2" tho. Same here...it's just flip-floppin. Tonight there will be more moisture then drier etc....bottom line 1" - 2" unless the mountains just kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Yeah this is one of those events where radar looks good.........and then the precip reaches the mountains and it doesn't redevelop until after our area. Mount Holly calling for 1-2 inches here which I would certainly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 We'll also be battling low dews and virga. Just whiten the ground and I'll consider that a win. Still, despite lack SECS or better this month, most of us will end up with above average snowfall for Dec -- a big improvement over recent Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 This is pretty typical of these systems around these parts. very rarely do these systems produce much more than coatings. Not much moisture to begin with, then down sloping to reduce the moisture further and extremely low dew points. Coating at best is my guess. Patterns like this suck. Hopefully we cash in at some point, but I am not all that optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 As I always say - give me the cold and at some point the snow will follow....keep the faith....a SECS will happen over the next 2 weeks with all of this continuous cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Not sure what model Glenn is looking at (probably Euro, maybe a combination?) but here are the totals it's spitting out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 hours ago, JTA66 said: We'll also be battling low dews and virga. Just whiten the ground and I'll consider that a win. Still, despite lack SECS or better this month, most of us will end up with above average snowfall for Dec -- a big improvement over recent Decembers. Yeah, I think this little baby could put a smile on this snow lover's face ☺! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 0z NAM looks solid for 1 to max 3 for the PHL metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, Animal said: 0z NAM looks solid for 1 to max 3 for the PHL metro area. Radar looks decent and appears it may arrive earlier than mid morning (8 - 9am)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11.7F Looking forward to seeing some pixie dust powder tomorrow expectations set at 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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