Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Overall upper air pattern, ensembles, and most ops now support a legit threat in this window. Post thoughts, discussion, model runs, maps, etc pertaining to this potential wintry weather here. I will narrow title date range when guidance comes in-line. Right now some faster than others. Normally I wouldnt make a dedicated thread this early, but when almost all guidance has the potential for *something*, chances are better than not that they are sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 -EPO, -AO, neutral NAO trying to trend negative via ridge bridge, with active STJ and sprawling Arctic HP along Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm with you on this threat Ralph. with how bullish the ens look and the pattern we have in place, it seems very likely we get a storm in this time frame. the question to me is if it is going to be a Secs or mecs? there isn't really anything I look at right now and see a major red flag towards this being a miss. seems like Christmas now is trending towards an advisory event. good years tend to produce snow no matter what and the trend this year has been towards snow. won't be surprised of some places have their average for the year at the end of the month. in fact I was kind of banking on this in my winter forecast. most of the snow now through mid Jan. once the pattern changes I don't think we will get much more if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like most models support a really nice front end thump on this one. Has been showing up for days now with the 6Z today noting a really heavy front end. Nice to have something like this to track. Plus, the 384 hour fantasy storm....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z gfs has better looking ridge and positioning out West. Continues to back off digging a trof over the Rockies which allows for less ridging upstream. -NAO looks better with -AO and +PNA "ridge bridge" connection. MECS this run.....widespread. All the major players on the KU checklist are there. Wish this were 24 hours out and not 7+ days. At least we know the potential is there for something classic....that is my takeaway for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS in support. Notable increase in precip on the mean. Nothing the likes of which I ever recall seeing at this range on an ens mean. Eta: around 2" liquid equivalent SE PA between Midday Wed 27th and Sun AM Dec 31. There must be some mega heavy hitters in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 28-30th signal is looking huge right now. Will have to wait a couple days to see how guidance trends, or doesn't trend, but possibly a HECS on the horizon? I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Most of our historic storms were actually well modeled in advance. will be interesting if this is the case. There are a lot of good indicators for a storm hit right now which is a great sign. Also with the qpf and widespread nature of the storm, there is much less room for a big swing as there isn't a tight gradient. I really think this is going to be a big hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Was enjoying the euro very much it looked decent enough although it breaks next weeks storm into two pieces, then i checked snowfall totals by 18z on the 30th- 1" , taking into account the .5-1" on Christmas lol Must find my Dr NO pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Put me down for the ECM crippling ice storm .6" qpf temps in the teens and 20's and a dark New Years holiday. 3" snow then a lot of ice hello winter 94 if that happens which is doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is a disaster if you want snow next week. If you want the region shutdown and without power for days to weeks, it is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Drastic differences on the 18Z GFS Storm much further north at 168. Much closer to where it was 6Z and 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Moderate overrunning snows throughout region 180 and 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Mod-heavy snows throughout region 192. SNJ and SDE rain. Very nice CAD signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 SEPA looks to flip past 204, with most precip through the area. This setup looks more plausible to me than the 12Z. although I do believe this run is taking the western low way to far north as the primary, so I'd expect a transfer a bit sooner with 850s crashing back. Obviously still a LONG way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 I wouldnt get too invested in ops runs at this range as they will bounce all around with small nuances leading up to storm from run to run which have massive impacts farther out in time. GEFS are a thing of beauty tho. Actually thru their entire run. Probably best looking weenie ens mean I've seen in a long long time thru the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 0z EPS is the kind of stuff dreams are made of. Cold air source originating in Siberia comes across globe into E Canada funnelling into CAD/CCB look. Slp on mean near perfect transfer and positioning. -AO ridge bridge to western NAO region. Precip mean thru Saturday night on the 30th doubled for our region from 12z from .7" liquid thru the week to a little over 1.5" LE. Those are some robust numbers on a mean prog.....some BIG hitters on the individuals I would suspect. Real nice moisture transport look from several areas in play....Baja, quasi Pineapple connection, GOM, then Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a crippling ice storm as we get closer. cold air will be in place but with the lack of a neg nao could see this taking a track that means ice. would be a historic ice storm imo I don't see a scenario at this time where the cold air wouldn't hold. this will be frozen one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Not a good 12z suite so far today with GFS/GEFS/CMC with a weak well south event next week. Hopefully just one of those blips we get with these things a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ralph, good post in the midatlantic thread about losing the SER too much. Suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 all from 1//30 - 1/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Leaves me 1" shy of my normal winter snowfall before New Year's Eve that is an acceptable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 lol Euro shows a legit HECS for the entire Northeast. Timing got pushed back though into the 31st-1st of January which may have helped the phasing overall. Its a great look to have until it changes in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 18 gfs shows a nice hit from a coastal toward the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Good to see the GFS got the big dog back on the wagon Even hints at another stray dog 3-4 days further in fantasy land Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I think you should update the thread dates...Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 39 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: I think you should update the thread dates... Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk I wouldn't screw up a good thing/flow. We all know what's going on....let things roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 I think you should update the thread dates...Sent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkDo you have a suggestion? Models have 3 waves rolling thru the stj between Dec 27 and Dec 30 and they all handle them differently. Any of the 3 could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ancient Mayan curse of starting a storm thread for a long range threat strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z ECM OP returns the storm chance, looks like the CMC SECS'y looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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