Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. Still has a pesky cluster up into WV but notable shift towards a transfer further south or straight southern track. Very good run. No two ways around that. Hey Bob, care to post the Low Location panel? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Heh.... these look as tasty as a Ruth Chris steak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I step out for an hour and now boom!? Lol. Awesome, but I’ll believe all of this when the Euro plays Dr. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Hey Bob, care to post the Low Location panel? Thanks! Still a lot of spread. 2 distinct camps. One supports the 12z op and the other supports the 6z op. You can see the west cluster and transfer cluster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z GEFS backed off on the ridge in the south and increased the bootleg -NAO look compared to 6z. This mean panel does not favor a big west track from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 nope, move that topic along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not sure I would trust the GEFS in the extended so much. Huge disconnect at range with GEFS. Compare the 500's, 850's and surface temps. at the end of the run to see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure I would trust the GEFS in the extended so much. Huge disconnect at range with GEFS. Compare the 500's, 850's and surface temps. at the end of the run to see what I mean. as many swings as were seeing in the medium range.... duly noted..... There's enough to chew on next week, and thats still many runs (panic attacks) away.... (panic attack is being used jokingly here...) Im taking the better ridging out west as my win for the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Strong progression toward N Pacific ridge on models today and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: as many swings as were seeing in the medium range.... duly noted..... There's enough to chew on next week, and thats still many runs (panic attacks) away.... (panic attack is being used jokingly here...) Im taking the better ridging out west as my win for the day... Not going to spend any time looking into (post 10 day after all) but it probably fits in with my previous post a few minutes ago about where the GFS was dumping the trough surge out of Canada into the Southwest and I thought it would more likely verify as a dump southeast. 500mb and surface temps reflect the GEFS members probably being in two camps with one dumping into the SW and the other south and east. Yet the 850 temps argue for a trough surge south and east. Might be something to keep an eye on in the coming days, a dump SE probably sets us up for another run at something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 To my eye....500/700 for 12z GEPS evolution for a majority of the run is better than yesterday. We'll worry about 10+ in 5-7.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The miller B's that scare the heck out of me are the ones with a moisture starved NS shortwave rounding the base and THEN getting going. This "should" be a well developed system well west of here. Models are showing a well developed pac shortwave with plenty of precip getting forced under strong HP. Even if it's a northern WV coastal jump, both our yards get good precip regardless. I think we can all live with that. If the transfer happens in KY to the coast then both our areas get under the pivot and CCB. Feb 2010 comes to mind but not nearly the same magnitude. some of our better events (from a SECS/MECS point of view) are those west to east systems that tap the gulf into the TN valley and undercut us. those can often produce those not too little, not too much 3-6/4-8"+ storms. kinda hoping this is one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This wasn't mentioned. Ukie day 6 map. Limited maps available, but here's the precip map. Looks d@mn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Trough looks to be setting up much better for the weekend. We should not see a suppressed solution with our system on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Trough looks to be setting up much better for the weekend. We should not see a suppressed solution with our system on this run. Showme for the PBP. Would be nice to have this continue the "how we snow" trends of the season so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro gearing up for something after day 7. Probably similar to last nights GGEM at the surface, but more zonal at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Seeing some major differences on the surface (EPS), have a low pop off the coast and head OTS day 6/7 as well as the configuration of the highs pressing in from the nw is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 JMA has a phased neg tilt trof out West next week centered around the Dakotas. Huge ridge in East with strong lp in Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is ejecting things in pieces. Still going to work but not a big storm solution this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think we are going to really like this solution coming up in a couple of frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I am trying to go off of free maps here. But it looks like the low is popping at the Sc/NC border at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is ejecting things in pieces. Still going to work but not a big storm solution this run. Looking at 500mb anomalies it is total opposite from last run and tries dumping a full trof out West now late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro looks off with such abundant moisture flow from west coast to east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We've got Euro support at 192h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is ejecting things in pieces. Still going to work but not a big storm solution this run. Looking at 500mb anomalies it is total opposite from last run and tries dumping a full trof out West now late week. Yea, the most important thing (snow and not rain) comes out of it so just another iteration with a snowy result. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Well, the biggest ones are sniffed out early. This may be the case as well. Consensus is impressive for the signal of a storm. Still working out the track of the storm, and this will be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yea, the most important thing (snow and not rain) comes out of it so just another iteration with a snowy result. I'm good with that. Agreed. We can still score in that setup. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 That's a weird run. 2 wave progression. First one is clean and second one is dirty. Just more stuff to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's a weird run. 2 wave progression. First one is clean and second one is dirty. Just more stuff to ponder. Euro holding things back in or near the sw.....carp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.