mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 There's a clipper on its tail by the time it exits the coast. May be too far north for us, but plenty of time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 What I like most about this run is that GFS 500 mb pattern with this very favorable solution looks much more like the EPS than its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Forgot one thing... Potential stream phase - check 6zGEFS showed this as well. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Well at least we know on paper this pattern can produce an all snow- cold powder bomb for our area. Temps actually fall into the mid teens during the height. Probably 1-2 feet. Where do we go from here? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up You and Mr. IAN both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This is going to be a monster run. Even gives us Christmas snow. Hour 210 looks good, but the whole event starts sub 200 hours at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. This is true, in general. Though the next week event has been a bit all over the place, the setup for something has been there for awhile. Not comparing this in any way at this point, but off the top of my head 3 of the biggest events I experienced here that had (relatively) long lead indications consistently are PD-II (it seemed clear ~5 or so days out we were in for a major overrunning event), Feb. 5-6, 2010 (close to a week out the setup was there), and the Jan. 2016 blizzard (the Saturday before, I distinctly recall all models "locking in" to a big one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. Im on board. Not being one ounce negative. Just stating a 'perfect' scenario is rather elusive. Nobody should be expecting that. CMC shows what could go "wrong"(?) and how we still end up with a SECS. Very optimistic tho.....all players look to be on the field. Really far out in time. It' great to see but the looks will change alot over the next several days. What really has me excited is the snowfall mean on the esembles. For our good snows usually we see this happen out in time and continue and improve on the good look as we close in. There's A lot to like the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load. But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up It really is a Feb 2010 type of progression. Gets started different in the west but what happens east of the MS river reminds me very much of Feb 2010. This will be a good test of the big ones locking in early. We're still on the outer fringe of time. If models are locked in by Sunday then it's time to fasten some seatbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This is true, in general. Though the next week event has been a bit all over the place, the setup for something has been there for awhile. Not comparing this in any way at this point, but off the top of my head 3 of the biggest events I experienced here that had (relatively) long lead indications consistently are PD-II (it seemed clear ~5 or so days out we were in for a major overrunning event), Feb. 5-6, 2010 (close to a week out the setup was there), and the Jan. 2016 blizzard (the Saturday before, I distinctly recall all models "locking in" to a big one).Add Jan 1996 to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load. But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics? Banter...delete this garbage. Who is this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load. But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics? Classic setup for a Mid Atlantic storm. 50/50, High to our north, -NAO, -AO, STJ pumping moisture straight at us. Coastal transfers from TN off the coast. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load. But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics? GFS dropped the big dig idea in the west and looks like a classic sw exiting the rockies with a -ao/nao/50-50 in place. SLP track into western TN and off the coast. 1-2' snow totals in our area with temps in the teens and low 20's. Mix line is so far away that we don't even need to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS dropped the big dig idea in the west and looks like a classic sw exiting the rockies with a -ao/nao/50-50 in place. SLP track into western TN and off the coast. 1-2' snow totals in our area with temps in the teens and low 20's. Mix line is so far away that we don't even need to talk about it. Lame. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: you and me are 2 sick pups lol Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental.... The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Everything right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental.... The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Every right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. Honestly, for the first time in my life I was excited when I saw last night's GEFS and EPS snow mean. First time I can recall those numbers was before 2/10 and the last time 1/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Honestly, for the first time in my life I was excited when I saw last night's GEFS and EPS snow mean. First time I can recall those numbers was before 2/10 and the last time 1/16. GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ji said: these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up A great run and I'd love it if the timing stayed as is! Get the storm in here on Friday and start clean up over the weekend so I can fly off to California as planned first thing Monday morning, Jan 1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental.... The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Everything right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. Too bad Cobalt is asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yeah. The GFS finally figured out that it isnt cutting into a 1050+ HP with a 50/50 in place. The Euro had all the players on the field last night as well. Lets hope it holds serve. Exciting couple of weeks coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Now this is 10+ day so take it for what it's worth, which isn't much. But the GFS is probably showing another big dog (day 11/12) following up our weekend storm though it is showing a hot mess at this time. GFS is continually trying to dump the trough surges in the longer ranges into the southwest and yet in the closer ranges is taking it south and east. We are seeing it occur now out west where the trough is surging SE at this moment instead of into the southwest as originally modeled. And we are seeing the GFS doing it once again with the surge leading into next weekends possible storm. The GFS has now backed off the SW dump in the longer range and is now bringing the surge south and east in model land. If the GFS holds to form it isn't unreasonable to expect the same to happen with surge we see proceeding the day 11/12 storm. So instead of seeing that dump into the southwest, if we were actually to see that moving SE that hot mess at day 11/12 becomes a potential big dog. Again we are talking 10+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 12z GEFS REALLY supports this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it.I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The 12z GEFS REALLY supports this event... Agreed. Still has a pesky cluster up into WV but notable shift towards a transfer further south or straight southern track. Very good run. No two ways around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it. I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php Sorry posted wrong one. Bobs got the right one below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it. I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia. CPC super ensemble. D8+ doesn't show that many big analogs but the correlation score is really low so confidence in any analog on the list is low: ETA: link is embedding yesterday's map. Here's the link to d8+ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS shows a LOT of rather rainy solutions, so if we're going to miss on this one, it looks like it's going to be based on where it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think the biggest shift is the +PNA, look at ridge difference between the 6z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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