poolz1 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Much better progression on the GFS. Totally dropped the big dig idea. Now looks like a conventional way we get cold/snow in these parts. It will change a million more times but getting rid of the big dig/cut progression will put people at ease. Seems to be the trend this season...after all, xmas was supposed to be a blowtorch with a big SW cutoff a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Progressive shortwave over the rockies, confluence overhead, and big stj tap. Beautiful panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wow, MAJOR changes on the 12z GFS, check out the ridge out West....1052mb H in the N half of the country...vort out west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 -AO - check -NAO - check 50/50 - check +PNA - check SW exiting rockies - check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 MAJOR storm methinks on GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Absolute friggin textbook look....Literally could be right out of the Kocin book....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Forgot one thing... Potential stream phase - check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We got the -NAO and the 50-50 lows working for us this run. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Forgot one thing... Potential stream phase - check I was just gunna post that.....2/6/10 is all I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I was just gunna post that.....2/6/10 is all I saw On paper this is a classic big dog for the MA. I'm not sure what else to add... check out this stj. good god man....crippling ice storm in the lower midwest too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Forgot one thing... Potential stream phase - check Also, looks like a banana 1051 H sliding in to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017122112&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Snowing with temps in the upper teens and low 20's. Please just lock this one up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It looks like an acceptable solution based on the pattern as depicted. I feel that winter weather would be a strong possibility if that scenario played out as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Epic, epic storm here on the 12z GFS, and that is without a full phase, just clean STJ energy and N stream help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Already transferring at 198 hours to a Low off the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017122112&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 TN to the coast jump. This is a Feb 2010 analog run right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS, Please be the trend and not a blip!! That is all I want for Christmas! Late gift that is...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wow! So much better than having that thing head up toward the Ohio Valley area. ETA: And notice that the 2m temps are in the 20s on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This might be one of the longest duration snowstorms I've ever seen on a model run....The STJ just fuels all this moisture and because of the block the Northern stream is just taking its good ol time to pick up the surface low and take it N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 204 hour panel, which I couldn't link, is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Someone warm up the digital snow thread... FWIW, the CMC backed off its monster storm in our area. It still gives us some snow, but it looks like it no longer develops the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wonderful run, beautiful trends at H5. Obviously going to be changes tho over the next week. Expectations should be tempered as this look right now is almost TOO perfect to remain for 7+ days. Takeaway thus far? Threat for a high impact event second half of next week in the East is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 204 hour panel, which I couldn't link, is great 210 is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wonderful run, beautiful trends at H5. Obviously going to be changes tho over the next week. Expectations should be tempered as this look right now is almost TOO perfect to remain for 7+ days. Takeaway thus far? Threat for a high impact event second half of next week in the East is increasing. Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 More snow on the Positive Snow Depth change than 10:1 snowfall map! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2017122112&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yeah, it's a good pattern. I'd be worried about the drier scenario because it is La Nina and this has been the happening for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wonderful run, beautiful trends at H5. Obviously going to be changes tho over the next week. Expectations should be tempered as this look right now is almost TOO perfect to remain for 7+ days. Takeaway thus far? Threat for a high impact event second half of next week in the East is increasing. One thing I like is no big 50/50 low causing massive suppression gradient N&W like most big snows since 2010, of course just one run and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. Im on board. Not being one ounce negative. Just stating a 'perfect' scenario is rather elusive. Nobody should be expecting that. CMC shows what could go "wrong"(?) and how we still end up with a SECS. Very optimistic tho.....all players look to be on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah, it's a good pattern. I'd be worried about the drier scenario because it is La Nina and this has been the happening for a while. You do realize we have had big snowstorms in La Niña Patterns correct ? It all depends where the tropical forcing sets up in the pacific ...this pattern is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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