Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[PDIII]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GEFS we actually see the improvements I want to see in the coming runs. Lows tucked closer into the coast. Seeing slight ridging forming as there is a better representation in the 50/50 and a little better backing of the flow. Also seeing the through dig a touch more and the neg anomalies extending from that trough are extending more so towards the SE coast. 

I really hope this trend continues...

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure what you are asking? Basically just saying the low is much closer to the coast then the previous run. Also runs straight up the coast vs the previous which had a slight NE trajectory. That would be another thing i would expect as well.

 

Looping the 500 you can easily see why the GEFS coastal is closer to the coast and tacks a ride up the seaboard vs sliding out to sea.  Slightly better ridging out west and the NS digging a bit better led to heights rising on the EC ahead of our storm.  If you loop the last few runs of the GEFS at 500, much improved.  I know you know this but just offering some weenie analysis.

[showmethesnow]

I guess the easiest way to show the transition between the over running idea towards the coastal idea is to look at the precip from the last 8 runs. Notice how the precip migrates over the runs.

eta: Notice the axis of heavy precip and the western extent of the precip. Earlier runs have a farther west precip shield with more of an east west axis. The later runs don't have the far western extent and the have a more SW/NE trajectory which is more a signature of a coastal.

[osfan24]

Obviously the Euro run overnight was pretty concerning but I really like the Ukie being in our corner. That model is nothing to sneeze at and did well with our first storm of the year, as well as Irma.

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I really hope this trend continues...

 

Yeah, it is nice to see and its only a few ticks away from real nice...  Like showme and all of us know, we are loaded w/ potential, so it would be great to see us come out of this with some love from above.

I think once we get the cold here, we'll see the noted adjustments that hopefully bring us back to something bigger.  I'm just happy to be talking about it....but would be stoked to be shoveling it...

[showmethesnow]

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looping the 500 you can easily see why the GEFS coastal is closer to the coast and tacks a ride up the seaboard vs sliding out to sea.  Slightly better ridging out west and the NS digging a bit better led to heights rising on the EC ahead of our storm.  If you loop the last few runs of the GEFS at 500, much improved.  I know you know this but just offering some weenie analysis.

Actually as the Ridge out west is currently configured most of the dig by the trough will be induced by what we see in the 50/50 region and how well it can back the flow up. The ridge out west with it's broad base and lack of northern extension IMO is actually hindering dig somewhat as it builds higher heights underneath the dropping trough. Now if we see the northern portion coming in stronger and extending farther northward with less of a base/higher heights it gives a more SE trajectory to the flow which is more conducive to see the trough dropping farther south.

[poolz1]

I know many have already mentioned it but the signal for around Jan 6th keeps getting stronger on the EPS.  Pretty impressive mean for this far out..

[nj2va]

Actually as the Ridge out west is currently configured most of the dig by the trough will be induced by what we see in the 50/50 region and how well it can back the flow up. The ridge out west with it's broad base and lack of northern extension IMO is actually hindering dig somewhat as it builds higher heights underneath the dropping trough. Now if we see the northern portion coming in stronger and extending farther northward with less of a base/higher heights it gives a more SE trajectory to the flow which is more conducive to see the trough dropping farther south.

Ah, thanks for the explanation (and much better insight than I gave!)

[showmethesnow]

My CMC maps are pretty crappy and limited so I can't look to hard into the ensembles but from what I see there was an improvement overnight at both 500 mb and the surface reflection. For whatever that is worth.

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GEFS we actually see the improvements I want to see in the coming runs. Lows tucked closer into the coast. Seeing slight ridging forming as there is a better representation in the 50/50 and a little better backing of the flow. Also seeing the through dig a touch more and the neg anomalies extending from that trough are extending more so towards the SE coast. 

Looking at the individual members on both the EPS and GEFS, there are still quite a few that are NS dominant/miss a phase/phase too late for our area. Multiple ens runs in a row now where that sort of sticks out, which aligns with recent op runs. Part of the issue is the PNA ridge has become flatter in recent runs, which is not as conducive to the NS digging much. The NPAC is chaotic with lots of shortwaves, so plenty of opportunity for better trends going forward. Dont want to end up with the NS low squashing or kicking out the SS energy/phasing late (yay SNE) and our region stuck in the middle with not much of anything. Hopefully we see clear trends away from that option over the coming days.

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

My CMC maps are pretty crappy and limited so I can't look to hard into the ensembles but from what I see there was an improvement overnight at both 500 mb and the surface reflection. For whatever that is worth.

Let me tell you what. I truly feel like the CMC has been leading the way on this thing. Hasn’t really wavered much at all. The Euro is a tad concerning but it too has been up and down this year. Let’s hope for some more magic at 12z. Merry Christmas to you! 

[Interstate]

37 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know many have already mentioned it but the signal for around Jan 6th keeps getting stronger on the EPS.  Pretty impressive mean for this far out..

Always the 10 day storm

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Always the 10 day storm

Always some banter 

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually as the Ridge out west is currently configured most of the dig by the trough will be induced by what we see in the 50/50 region and how well it can back the flow up. The ridge out west with it's broad base and lack of northern extension IMO is actually hindering dig somewhat as it builds higher heights underneath the dropping trough. Now if we see the northern portion coming in stronger and extending farther northward with less of a base/higher heights it gives a more SE trajectory to the flow which is more conducive to see the trough dropping farther south.

Had not seen this post when I made my previous one..

As for the 50-50 low, because the NA "blocking" is more of the bootleg variety, multiple PV lobes/vortices are swinging into/moving through the 50-50 region, and not really getting slowed/hanging around 50-50 underneath a legit block. In this scenario, seems it will take proper timing to get the "help" we want from that feature. IMO we really need to see the PNA ridge more amplified like it was on previous runs, rather than relying on meager blocking/50-50 low and good timing to produce a sharper trough. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Always some banter 

Yeah I know... just showing some frustration.  I mean we joke about the 10 day storm... but it is the truth around this part of the woods.

[Bob Chill]

I'm with CAPE and PSU right now. We have trended away from easy/overrunning to complicated/northern stream. 

If we miss out on the stj/overrunning piece to the south and rely on the northern stream saving the day we have a lot of history that I don't want to see a repeat of. The setup has trended towards a higher probability of us being in noman's land between the 2 features. 

If there is any trend I want to see with the gfs/euro/cmc today it's better flow amplification that aims the overrunning piece back at us. 0z ukie is the last run I've seen that keeps that idea alive. 

I didn't like the eps or 6z gefs much at all. 

 

 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with CAPE and PSU right now. We have trended away from easy/overrunning to complicated/northern stream. 

If we miss out on the stj/overrunning piece to the south and rely on the northern stream saving the day we have a lot of history that I don't want to see a repeat of. The setup has trended towards a higher probability of us being in noman's land between the 2 features. 

If there is any trend I want to see with the gfs/euro/cmc today it's better flow amplification that aims the overrunning piece back at us. 0z ukie is the last run I've seen that keeps that idea alive. 

I didn't like the eps or 6z gefs much at all. 

 

 

Merry Christmas.  That I think might be a bridge too far with the SS.  That moisture return out of TX while better on 6z gets squashed/sheared to varying degrees by that flow.  Save the Ukie, 6z might be the best we see for the Friday part of the equation but I hope to be way off. 

[Buddy1987]

Looks like the SREF would be good at the end of the run with the precip in TX. Hopefully a good start to the 12z suite.

[North Balti Zen]

Relatedly, I am way south for the holiday, on the nc/sc border in Brevard south of Asheville - the chances for snow here end of week have ticked up and it appears to be because of what chill is pointing to - the southern piece running ahead and sliding south of our area and risk of mid-Atlantic getting caught in between that and northern energy. I always have nightmares of Boxing Day when it trends toward this kind of setup.

 

eta - I am coming back in time for our snow. We’re gonna get snow. Snow.

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with CAPE and PSU right now. We have trended away from easy/overrunning to complicated/northern stream. 

If we miss out on the stj/overrunning piece to the south and rely on the northern stream saving the day we have a lot of history that I don't want to see a repeat of. The setup has trended towards a higher probability of us being in noman's land between the 2 features. 

If there is any trend I want to see with the gfs/euro/cmc today it's better flow amplification that aims the overrunning piece back at us. 0z ukie is the last run I've seen that keeps that idea alive. 

I didn't like the eps or 6z gefs much at all. 

 

 

Darn