Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

Go back and look at the progression of the northern stream low when we had those big euro and gfs runs. That was digging down to our west and crossing our region. Not sliding across to our north. That's the biggest problem I see now. 

[evaporativecooler]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It went the one way that I don't want to see. Northern stream dominant. Squashed the stj south of us then tries to miller b phase with it way later maybe in time to blast eastern New England. 

Didn't we cash in a bunch from northern stream systems back in 2013-2014 with a similar amplitude trough? I know they usually get killed by the apps but maybe we can get something even if the good stuff is suppressed. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said:

Didn't we cash in a bunch from northern stream systems back in 2013-2014 with a similar amplitude trough? I know they usually get killed by the apps but maybe we can get something even if the good stuff is suppressed. 

Not really. Trough was digging deep that year and we have blocking this time. We need exactly what Psu said. Shortwave needs to dig and amplify. Trend with the gfs and now the euro is to flatten flow across the middle of the country. Flat flow keeps the stj stuff south of us. That's a key component for our region.  Right now guidance split 50/50 tonight. Not awe inspiring but not totally depressing either. 

[CAPE]

The "good" runs had some amplitude with the western ridge. Now its flat and lame. The NS energy isn't going to dig much with that look.

[evaporativecooler]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not really. Trough was digging deep that year and we have blocking this time. We need exactly what Psu said. Shortwave needs to dig and amplify. Trend with the gfs and now the euro is to flatten flow across the middle of the country. Flat flow keeps the stj stuff south of us. That's a key component for our region.  Right now guidance split 50/50 tonight. Not awe inspiring but not totally depressing either. 

Thanks, makes sense. Do wish we could get that 13-14 setup again one day though. That was complete gold with low temperature snowfalls in the 20's or teens. 

[psuhoffman]

Here is what I was talking about. Look at the location of the northern stream low as it passes our location 24 hours ago and tonight on the Gfs. Euro trend is the same. I know the times don't match but I wanted to show it's location as it passed our longitude. 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The "good" runs had some amplitude with the western ridge. Now its flat and lame. The NS energy isn't going to dig much with that look.

Yea one of the big issues lately is energy crashing into the PAC NW flattening the ridge and this also muting the trough in the east. It flattens out the whole flow. We're still talking only minor adjustments to get back to where we want but the trends been the wrong way today. I'm not saying that because of a few bad op runs. It's been a bad trend at h5 today on most guidance. It could turn around tomorrow. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea one of the big issues lately is energy crashing into the PAC NW flattening the ridge and this also muting the trough in the east. It flattens out the whole flow. We're still talking only minor adjustments to get back to where we want but the trends been the wrong way today. I'm not saying that because of a few bad op runs. It's been a bad trend at h5 today on most guidance. It could turn around tomorrow. 

Luckily we have time on our side. Lets hope things turn back in out favor over the next couple days.

[Wonderdog]

looking at the past 5 gfs runs, this current run finally brought back snow to our latitude for 0z next Friday. The last run to do that was 24 hours ago. Maybe its finally trending better for us.

[psuhoffman]

Because I don't want to end on a sour note. Geps likes 3 threats. 

 

[Jebman]

Sunday's and Monday's model runs will be better.

This overall 500 mb pattern wants to snow in all of our backyards.

[BristowWx]

6z...somewhat better.  We didn't lose ground from 0z...I would argue slightly better. It snows on Friday verbatim. Maybe room for improvement.  

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z...somewhat better.  We didn't lose ground from 0z...I would argue slightly better. It snows on Friday verbatim. Maybe room for improvement.  

Much better

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Much better

Hi Ji...merry Christmas..I never feel confident enough to say much...might get slammed for it...but I thought much better too

[Cobalt]

Hi Ji...merry Christmas..I never feel confident enough to say much...might get slammed for it...but I thought much better too

I'm half asleep (can't fall asleep) which should double my confidence to say something about the GFS, which I should've. The GFS is much better. NAVGEM looks better too. EPS wasn't as much of a step back as I thought it would be judging by the 0z Euro, which is good


.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I'm half asleep (can't fall asleep) which should double my confidence to say something about the GFS, which I should've. The GFS is much better. NAVGEM looks better too. EPS wasn't as much of a step back as I thought it would be judging by the 0z Euro, which is good


.

Merry Christmas Eve....get some sleep...long week ahead of tracking and over eating

[Jebman]

I am really looking forward to this upcoming week of tracking. Its gonna be good!

[aldie 22]

If I had my way I'd like to see a gradual creep back to a decent solution. I think we have room for this thing to come back a bit...good luck everyone

[Ralph Wiggum]

What happened to the progged Nina Southeast death ridge semi-permanent feature all of the lr ens means were touting as setting up? Man, would have been nice to see that have verified this week with all the stj energy trying to move into that region. Sometimes we wish away certain feature too much.

[PDIII]

33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

If I had my way I'd like to see a gradual creep back to a decent solution. I think we have room for this thing to come back a bit...good luck everyone

Ha ha.. I would hate to be the one who says it... But it is kind of right where we want it to be at this lead... especially with the last two GFS runs trending.. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What happened to the progged Nina Southeast death ridge semi-permanent feature all of the lr ens means were touting as setting up? Man, would have been nice to see that have verified this week with all the stj energy trying to move into that region. Sometimes we wish away certain feature too much.

Still some time for the storm to come back. Gfs and gefs look better.

[showmethesnow]

Ignoring the fact that it is an op run, and an off run to boot (*** yes @BristowWx I know this has been settled ages ago, just tweaking you  ) we did see improvements on the 06Z run vs. the 00Z where I wanted to see them at 500 mb. Little better backing of the flow from the 50/50 region as well as a corresponding response with the barest hints of ridging showing up. We are also seeing lower height anomalies now showing up extending from the pv/associated trough southward and rotating towards the southeast. This fits into my thinking for quite awhile now that we wouldn't be dealing with a mostly over running event and then a coastal (as shown days ago) but more of a stronger coastal feature with possible NS interaction. And over the last day or two the models, from what I have been seeing, I think the models have been caught between these solutions trying to resolve the conflict.

Now if my thoughts have any merit, I would expect to see in the next day or two some vast improvements on the runs as the models lock onto the coastal ideal. Now as I said I think we will probably be dealing with NS interaction (Miller B ), which brings it's own perils, but in this case I think we would probably be fine and just leave it at that. What I will be looking for in the coming runs is more amplitude to the wavelengths (Better ridging between the 50/50 and trough, and better dig with the trough) I also hope to see deeper anomalies from the pv/trough extending farther south/eastward towards OBX/Se coast. Also would hope to see the coastal tucking in closer to the coast and the timing of its progression slowing somewhat.

At this point we are in wait and see mode but I still have high hopes. Been through this process too many times, where the models lose the big storm signal through this time period, only to bring it back around day 3 or so.

 

[PDIII]

Obviously a long way to go... But if we could get incremental improvement like we saw from 0z to 6z we would be back in the game.  Much better northern stream system

[PDIII]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been through this process too many times, where the models lose the big storm signal through this time period, only to bring it back around day 3 or so.

 

Yup...that this happened with our 2-4 event a couple Fridays ago. This is a thing. I don't know know why it is a thing... But it is.

 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Ignoring the fact that it is an op run, and an off run to boot (*** yes @BristowWx I know this has been settled ages ago, just tweaking you  ) we did see improvements on the 06Z run vs. the 00Z where I wanted to see them at 500 mb. Little better backing of the flow from the 50/50 region as well as a corresponding response with the barest hints of ridging showing up. We are also seeing lower height anomalies now showing up extending from the pv/associated trough southward and rotating towards the southeast. This fits into my thinking for quite awhile now that we wouldn't be dealing with a mostly over running event and then a coastal (as shown days ago) but more of a stronger coastal feature with possible NS interaction. And over the last day or two the models, from what I have been seeing, I think the models have been caught between these solutions trying to resolve the conflict.

Now if my thoughts have any merit, I would expect to see in the next day or two some vast improvements on the runs as the models lock onto the coastal ideal. Now as I said I think we will probably be dealing with NS interaction (Miller B ), which brings it's own perils, but in this case I think we would probably be fine and just leave it at that. What I will be looking for in the coming runs is more amplitude to the wavelengths (Better ridging between the 50/50 and trough, and better dig with the trough) I also hope to see deeper anomalies from the pv/trough extending farther south/eastward towards OBX/Se coast. Also would hope to see the coastal tucking in closer to the coast and the timing of its progression slowing somewhat.

At this point we are in wait and see mode but I still have high hopes. Been through this process too many times, where the models lose the big storm signal through this time period, only to bring it back around day 3 or so.

 

while i know some argue about "off hour runs" and losing (and then finding) the storms, as there is little reasoning/science behind those theories, there is no doubt some truth to it.  As many of us have been doing this for many years, we've all seen it.  Like you, I think that if this is one of those times, that tonight/tomorrow, we start to notice some of the improvements that you state above.  I wish there was some way/someone that had the data to say "this is one of those storms"...because of x,y,z....(like euros bias of holding back in SW).

going to be a fun week (I hope).

Nut

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the 06Z GEFS we actually see the improvements I want to see in the coming runs. Lows tucked closer into the coast. Seeing slight ridging forming as there is a better representation in the 50/50 and a little better backing of the flow. Also seeing the through dig a touch more and the neg anomalies extending from that trough are extending more so towards the SE coast. 

[Wonderdog]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GEFS we actually see the improvements I want to see in the coming runs. Lows tucked closer into the coast. Seeing slight ridging forming as there is a better representation in the 50/50 and a little better backing of the flow. Also seeing the through dig a touch more and the neg anomalies extending from that trough are extending more so towards the SE coast. 

Is that like what the UKIE was showing last night with the tucked low? Is that what you are referring to?

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

while i know some argue about "off hour runs" and losing (and then finding) the storms, as there is little reasoning/science behind those theories, there is no doubt some truth to it.  As many of us have been doing this for many years, we've all seen it.  Like you, I think that if this is one of those times, that tonight/tomorrow, we start to notice some of the improvements that you state above.  I wish there was some way/someone that had the data to say "this is one of those storms"...because of x,y,z....(like euros bias of holding back in SW).

going to be a fun week (I hope).

Nut

Irregardless of what the models have been spitting out the last day or so my hopes have not diminished any. Much of what I have been seeing since we began tracking this threat actually fits in with bias/tendencies of the models so I am not sweating it. All I know is that there is a lot of potential lined up in this pattern and it wouldn't take much to take these crappy runs and turn them around and make them special. But potential doesn't mean snow so I guess we wait and see.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Is that like what the UKIE was showing last night with the tucked low? Is that what you are referring to?

Not sure what you are asking? Basically just saying the low is much closer to the coast then the previous run. Also runs straight up the coast vs the previous which had a slight NE trajectory. That would be another thing i would expect as well.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure what you are asking? Basically just saying the low is much closer to the coast then the previous run. Also runs straight up the coast vs the previous which had a slight NE trajectory. That would be another thing i would expect as well.

That was it, thanks. Guess maybe if things evolve that way this week, that the UKIE would have been the first to sniff it out this week.