psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie has that same stream interaction going with the lakes energy that the euro had. No doubt that's a good hit. Ignoring the gfs for a minute (or longer) everything is so close to an epic solution. Just need that trough to dig a little more and phase cleaner and boom. I'm not worried about a cut west. If anything it would be an epic clash if it tried. The cold is pretty locked in. Even if we went to mix it would take an epic WAA thump first probably to erode that airmass. I'm not saying I won't take 6-10" and run but how often is something epic on the table. We have the ingredients just need it to come together better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Looks similar to the Canadian with the low placement Ukmet is quite a bit slower. Cmc is well off the coast by 144. That's a good thing could allow the upper levels to catch up and phase better after 144. Either way it's not the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The King 12/24/17 Reading, UK Show Time - 12:45 am All Tickets Non-refundable Rain or Shine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0z gefs better than the op by a good margin but favors a more suppressed track than previous runs. Looks like a handful have a decent coastal that makes it to SNE. Good enough I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0z GEFS is certainly better than the 18z. Like I said before, it's not uncommon for the ensemble to follow it's op counterpart, but it's a good comeback nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ukmet is quite a bit slower. Cmc is well off the coast by 144. That's a good thing could allow the upper levels to catch up and phase better after 144. Either way it's not the gfs. Agreed, Ukmet is more amped up than the CMC, since it doesn't split the west coast ridge and send a shortwave into BC at 132hrs. It's keeping me from freaking out over the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 You can see the interaction with the energy near the lakes idea is baked into the gefs. Partial support for the idea but it's easy to see it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 0z GEFS is certainly better than the 18z. Like I said before, it's not uncommon for the ensemble to follow it's op counterpart, but it's a good comeback nonetheless. Ironically in a perfect world the gefs would follow the op because both would be accurate. Unfortunately we know they don't mirror each other because the op is always dead on. So we need the ensemble members to be adequately perturbed such that they show us enough of the "other" possible permutations. An ensemble is useless if it's just a bunch of operational minions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Damn, ukie is sweet. This is the second panel of precip in our region. Plenty more to come afterwards. Ukie would be a big or even epic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The King 12/24/17 Reading, UK Show Time - 12:45 am All Tickets Non-refundable Rain or Shine I'm on board... here's my ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 00z UKIE would probably be a big hit seeing the 144 panel of QPF ETA: and after Bob Chill posted above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Oh yea, ukie is really nice. Great slp placement and just getting going...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Oh yea, ukie is really nice. Greatlp placement and just getting going...... That looks really tasty and great.. I'm gathering the SLP off of OBX is just developing, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Anyone have temps on that? The low looks pretty tucked into the coast, without much of an HP feed to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, ukie is sweet. This is the second panel of precip in our region. Plenty more to come afterwards. Ukie would be a big or even epic storm. And it knows where to put that little enhanced dot of qpf lol. It confirms what I thought. Didn't really need to see the qpf. The qpf is one of the least accurate guidance especially from that range. From 100+ let me see the h5 and mslp and I can fill in the rest. That said that's still a beaut to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: That looks really tasty and great There's already .4-.5 qpf otg by 144. Ukie is no doubt a very big event here. The good stuff is just starting at the end of the run. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh yea, ukie is really nice. Great slp placement and just getting going...... Either way it's a big hit. Mecs. If it phases and pulls that low due north from there and tucks it in then we're talking epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 UKMET is a good setup from SLP and QPF, but the temps are a tad iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Anyone have temps on that? The low looks pretty tucked into the coast, without much of an HP feed to the northwest. Don't have temps but it's a clean handoff from TN to the nc/sc border. Wedged hp in front. No way we lose the column imho. Maybe briefly before the ccb takes over. The low is just getting going in that postion and not very strong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Don't have temps but it's a clean handoff from TN to the nc/sc border. Wedged hp upstream. No way we lose the column imho. Maybe briefly before the ccb takes over. Fair enough, always hard to tell what the Ukie shows with such limited maps available. MSLP just looked a little close to the coast on that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Is the GEFS stuck for anyone else? I know the precip is through hr 384, but the snow mean is stuck at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gotta be right because it has the lower Eastern shore as the bullseye. Isn't that map a bit odd? It has the typical upslope on the wstern side of the mtns as the nrn stream does its thing, and the impact on the DELMARVA from the low spinning up. But the higher elevations of WVA, MD and PA in between (including the Allegheny Plateau) gets much lighter accumulations. Don't see that a lot, especially when there appears to be some good LE going on, which often bleeds over to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: That looks really tasty and great.. I'm gathering the SLP off of OBX is just developing, no? That SLP map is almost identical to last nights gfs. So if you want to see what happens, just replay last nights GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Amped said: That SLP map is almost identical to last nights gfs. So if you want to see what happens, just replay last nights GFS. Which was the epic 2 foot run of the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Which was the epic 2 foot run of the GFS... That one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is why I think the ukie would be fine temp wise. At least fine enough for the vast majority of precip being snow. There is no developed low west of the apps or off the coast 6 hours before. It's just a big wave of overunning that is just starting to develop a real low off the coast. No primary tracks west of the apps and the dominant low is off the coast. Even though it looks tucked it's still only just getting going at 144. We know the antecedent air mass is going to be very cold. There will be a battle with waa so some sort of mix line is moving north. My guess is it doesn't get north of central VA. Once the low passes our latitude we cranking on the cold side no matter what. The precip panels leading in don't show heavy precip west of the apps so like amped said...it looks a bit like the 0z gfs last nighr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: This is why I think the ukie would be fine temp wise. At least fine enough for the vast majority of precip being snow. There is no developed low west of the apps or off the coast 6 hours before. It's just a big wave of overunning that is just starting to develop a real low off the coast. No primary tracks west of the apps and the dominant low is off the coast. Even though it looks tucked it's still only just getting going at 144. We know the antecedent air mass I'd going to be very cold. There will be a battle with waa so some sort of mix line is moving north. My guess is it doesn't get north of central VA. Once the low passes our latitude we cranking on the cold side no matter what. That map is all I needed to see. Agreed it should be ok with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Well 35 degrees looks like the high for Christmas in the Cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 EC 500mb matches the UKMET at 72hrs more than it matches the GFS or CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I don't know what's up with the gfs. Just comparing hr 72 with the euro you can clearly see the pac sw and it's barely detectable on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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