Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs is still flat and sheared. It was only like halfway there to a good event this run. Good run up til like 108 or so then took a dump. The gfs progressive ns bias in play?? Doesnt want to dig the energy in the plains/midwest like other guidance. It will come around over next few runs I am guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Too flat, slides right out after 126. Yeah really ugly, trending flatter every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Keep an eye on the next sw on the gfs b in Pac NW.That could be something in 36 hours+ on the GFS Yea, lol but after seeing what the gfs did today I have even less confidence in a trailing wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian 4-8" not accounting ratios above 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 @Bob Chill......right on the $$ (as always) irt cmc..,,,so close to being huge. Still a good hit but man, that h5 look just missed at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian has been very good this year on all 3 events imby. I'm throwing my faith with it until it fails me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Canadian has been very good this year on all 3 events bomby. I'm throwing my faith with it until it fails me. Cmc was very steady last 2 runs. Almost identical @ hr138. Like seeing consistency anywhere right now. Hopefully the ukie looks like the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS still has the 2nd event on the 31th like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Round 2 @ 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Round 2 @ 180? More flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs is like Edward scissorhands with shortwaves. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Amped said: More flurries? Beggers can’t be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: More flurries? Those poor shortwaves don't stand a chance with the gfs lately. It's like a hacker removed the amplification algorithm to torture us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Beggers can’t be choosers Disaster run anyway you cut it. 500mb flow is straight from Kansas to Bermuda. Not going to get any overrunning with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Takeaway is that the 0z GFS is better than the 18z, 12z, and 6z. It took 2 runs for last nights 0z run to completely devolve into the 12z, so maybe come 6z or 12z it will be back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ooh ooh...I know where!! I know where!! I definitely know where it will not set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 A couple weenies around Philly did something to piss the gfs off. Not that we do much better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Elon Musk about trusting the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie...geez..looks amped http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Love to see that precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Pretty sure that would be a nice hit on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie...geez..looks amped http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo I'll take my chances with this Looks similar to the Canadian with the low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Welp, gfs looks more in line with other guidance with the shortwave now. Definitely a plus and a relief if nothing else I don't know what the final result will be, and even if all the models showed the same thing they can all be wrong from this range easily. But when all other guidance has a shortwave there and the gfs simply doesn't have it at all...I'm fairly confident it's just missing something. It's not likely that all other guidance would conjure up a non existent vort and manage to all make that same mistake. It could fail for many other reasons, not all the EPS were hits, but that's not it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Love to see that precip map Post it when it comes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ukie has that same stream interaction going with the lakes energy that the euro had. No doubt that's a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian would be ideal moderate snow. 6-10" for entire region. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know what the final result will be, and even if all the models showed the same thing they can all be wrong from this range easily. But when all other guidance has a shortwave there and the gfs simply doesn't have it at all...I'm fairly confident it's just missing something. It's not likely that all other guidance would conjure up a non existent vort and manage to all make that same mistake. It could fail for many other reasons, not all the EPS were hits, but that's not it. Glad my untrained weather thinking is on the same page with yours on this one...Even to me that didn't seem right that all the other models would just hallucinate, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Canadian would be ideal moderate snow. 6-10" for entire region. We take. Gotta be right because it has the lower Eastern shore as the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian would be ideal moderate snow. 6-10" for entire region. We take. Its gotta be right. I would be screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian would be ideal moderate snow. 6-10" for entire region. We take. Would be a nice way to end the year and bring in the new year!! Exciting times!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The Ukie appears to have weaker HP to the north than the other models. But I dont have precip panels past 72 to see what happens with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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