Maestrobjwa Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL So that's the one element that the GFS is not seeing? So essentially...either the other models are all hallucinating, or the GFS is blind? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL That vort is there at 75...into southern Washington... ETA 0Z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Not going to stay up to see what happens, but the shortwave is back on the 0z GFS coming onshore in Washington state. Wasn’t there at that time (0z Wednesday) since last nights 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So that's the one element that the GFS is not seeing? So essentially...either the other models are all hallucinating, or the GFS is blind? Lol Not exactly but a piece of it. The height pattern downstream from the shortwave isn't good either. Flat and sheared. No room for anything to amplify in general. Hopefully that changes shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Didn't most of us get one decent event and some a couple minor ones from the last pattern. For mid December that is producing. Not every good pattern yields a HECS. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This run is likely going back to a solid look extended event.....notable pieces of energy ejecting from the trof in the sw/Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not going to stay up to see what happens, but the shortwave is back on the 0z GFS coming onshore in Washington state. Wasn’t there at that time (0z Wednesday) since last nights 0z run. It's like an X Files episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Welp, gfs looks more in line with other guidance with the shortwave now. Definitely a plus and a relief if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Good moisture return showing up in central Tx at 93/96 as a result. This run looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Even if GFS doesn't show a hit, I'm glad it's in line with the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS looks MUCH better this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Here she comes at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Here she comes at 102 Yup! 105 is night and day difference when looking at 18z. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Improved run through 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 SimIR telling a much better story through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian looks solid. Streams are primed for at least a partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Much less suppression at 108, 500 pattern more favorable. Strong WAA and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Canadian looks solid. Streams are primed for at least a partial phase. I bet you can play 2 cards at once in BINGO too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I bet you can play 2 cards at once in BINGO too! CMC just missed a really big solution. Gfs a bit flat at h5 but nice to see the shortwave back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 To get a decent storm in this, we'll need to turn something on in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Snow at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Canadian looks solid. Streams are primed for at least a partial phase. Yes. The canadian is better. The GFS is still pretty flat at 114 and the CMC is already starting to dig at that point. GFS is starting to come around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Transfer occurs at 117 east of MYR. Need the gfs to get going a little earlier. Just happy it didn’t stay flat this go around. Lends more credence to cmc hit and 12z Euro depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC just missed a really big solution. Gfs a bit flat at h5 but nice to see the shortwave back in business. Even with a barely recognizable shortwave trough on the GFS at 120 there is still a sizable amount of precipitation. It's not super heavy on this run but that tells me that this could easily trend much more amped at still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Close but no cigar. Better then it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs is still flat and sheared. It was only like halfway there to a good event this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Too flat, slides right out after 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: To get a decent storm in this, we'll need to turn something on along the gulf between then and the storm The storm doesn’t get going at this point for a good 20 hrs after this depiction. Maybe less posting and seeing how some of the vets examine these runs, aka bob chill, huff, yoda, Ralph wiggum etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: Even with a barely recognizable shortwave trough on the GFS at 120 there is still a sizable amount of precipitation. It's not super heavy on this run but that tells me that this could easily trend much more amped at still 5+ days out. Now we finally have agreeent on the shortwave after the gfs taking a hiatus. Not worried about the crappy flat solution unless everything trends that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is still flat and sheared. It was only like halfway there to a good event this run. Keep an eye on the next sw on the gfs b in Pac NW.That could be something in 36 hours+ on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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