Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 I can understand the western and some nova folks not sharing the same enthusiasm yet though. Hopefully that changes here over the next 10 days. 

 

Amen brother! I feel pretty good at this point having the Euro and Ukie in our corner. I dont know what happened to the GFS? We used to be able to work with it because we knew it's biases. But now I dont even know what to think about it. I am not saying it is wrong. We could very well end up suppressed. But so far this winter it has really been on its own alot.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...GFS all on it's own. How often has it turned out to be right when it does this?

Relax. GFS is not the Euro, and we are 6-8 days out. Geez.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Relax. GFS is not the Euro, and we are 6-8 days out. Geez.

True, but I don't like the gefs making the jump. 12z was different. Op sucked but gefs was a crushing. Now they both suck. I'm not married to any solution but I won't just toss and op+ens guidance because it's a bummer. The ukie hasn't been great either the last 2 runs. Always happy having the euro+eps on board of course. But until they all say the same thing for back to back runs we play the game. The gfs+gefs could be right. Deep down we all know this possibility is lurking.lol. 

Eta: we may be 6-8 days out frpm possible snow in our yards but the important pieces coming together are only about 4 days out. 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Amen brother! I feel pretty good at this point having the Euro and Ukie in our corner. I dont know what happened to the GFS? We used to be able to work with it because we knew it's biases. But now I dont even know what to think about it. I am not saying it is wrong. We could very well end up suppressed. But so far this winter it has really been on its own alot.

As one of the western folks it hasn' been very good so far. I have   had a couple dusting so far. Hopefully that changes for us over the next few weeks. Would be great to get a storm that everone in this SUB forum gets a nice accumulating snow.

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Relax. GFS is not the Euro, and we are 6-8 days out. Geez.

We are in a drought. The GFS is trying to keep us there. When in drought, leave it out. The suppression from the north is too strong according to the GFS.

[yoda]

I feel fine with the Euro and EPS in our corner

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

True, but I don't like the gefs making the jump. 12z was different. Op sucked but gefs was a crushing. Now they both suck. I'm not married to any solution but I won't just toss and op+ens guidance because it's a bummer. The ukie hasn't been great either the last 2 runs. Always happy having the euro+eps on board of course. But until they all say the same thing for back to back runs we play the game. The gfs+gefs could be right. Deep down we all know this possibility is lurking.lol. 

Eta: we may be 6-8 days out frpm possible snow in our yards but the important pieces coming together are only about 4 days out. 

Welp, when you think about it,  the gefs have been the "yes" men for the operational lately so the 12z was more of a blip from that routine and now they're back to their "normal. "

[frd]

This is not current but take a look and see there are times the GFS does drop out and the ECM does not. Whether this is happening now hard to tell. 

Like Bob said,  it is possible that the GFS is correct . The superior physics and modeling of the Euro you would think might be more so correct ,but the pattern is so complex right now. We like clarity, but its going to take more time.  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Today has been quite the roller coaster.  3 bad Op runs from the GFS.  Can't be accepted but can't be ignored either.  18z doubled down on 12z which double downed on 6z.  That's more than a blip regardless of the Euro.

Calm down. 18z gfs still has a snowstorm last I checked. It focuses on a later vort. You don't expect timing differences from 7 days out?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Long term models don't look good, the brief +PNA after this threat is a retrograding of AO block/Siberian High, which quickly closes off to Aleutian ridge. It could get pretty warm fast after this few days. 

[PDIII]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Relax. GFS is not the Euro, and we are 6-8 days out. Geez.

the main problem that I see is that we have been 6-8 days out for the last three days.

[wkd]

2 hours ago, Herb@MAWS said:

There was "A.M. Weather" on public TV.

That's the one. Thanks. For some reason I thought it was on public radio. 

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, stormy said:

We are in a drought. The GFS is trying to keep us there. When in drought, leave it out. The suppression from the north is too strong according to the GFS.

Yeah ok, sure, according to the GFS. Not sure your assessment is correct, but lets go with it. Maybe it is right..but wait- which GFS op run would that be out of the last 3 or 4? All the various ops have offered up pretty disparate solutions from run-to-run, so we look to the ensembles, which makes sense as this is a 7+ day threat. Personally I will wait until the EPS looks like total crap for at least a run before I begin to "worry".

[stormy]

35 minutes ago, PDIII said:

the main problem that I see is that we have been 6-8 days out for the last three days.

The main problem is that we are in a drought. A drought is very difficult to recover from.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

The main problem is that we are in a drought. A drought is very difficult to recover from.

A drought of what?  Snow?  

[stormy]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

A drought of what?  Snow?  

Rain and snow. Past 60 days, less than 50% of normal precip. across much of Virginia.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

 

I bet the only true way to determine the full impact of the missing balloon launches would be to run the models on a day when there are full balloon launches available, and have a parallel run with everything identical except the data from one or more launches - and see how different the resulting model output is. Then, see how it verifies compared to reality. 

No way NWS has the kind of manpower and funding to do that.  

[yoda]

Just now, stormy said:

Rain and snow. Past 60 days, less than 50% of normal precip. across much of Virginia.

So... it's because of that that the models are not doing well with our snow chances?

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah ok, sure, according to the GFS. Not sure your assessment is correct, but lets go with it. Maybe it is right..but wait- which GFS op run would that be out of the last 3 or 4? All the various ops have offered up pretty disparate solutions from run-to-run, so we look to the ensembles, which makes sense as this is a 7+ day threat. Personally I will wait until the EPS looks like total crap for at least a run before I begin to "worry".

Yep. I' m in wait and see mode right now. There' so many Pac. Short waves. Odds are one of those have to bring the goods. May not be a huge storm but we would have to be very unlucky to not see accumulating snow over the next 2 weeks. Famous last words...lol

[osfan24]

GEFS taking a major step back is actually a bit eyebrow raising, but it's just one run and again, I'm not really taking anything too seriously until we get to model runs on the 26th.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

A drought of what?  Snow?  

Yeah thats kinda my question too. I am not aware of any drought conditions in our sub-forum. I could be wrong. Its been pretty damn moist here though, and snowfall is above avg for the month.

[Cobalt]

It took the Blizzard of 2016 until the Sunday before (the event happened on the Friday after) to get full consensus that it was big and that it was NOT going to miss us. This will be different, and I think we'll have consensus sometime on Monday. 

[psuhoffman]

18z gefs isn't a jump of a cliff run. If we isolate the day 6-9 period at 12x there were 11 flush 5"+ hits. 18z that dropped to 8. Not a statistically huge difference. There are another five 2-4" hits. Then a group of 7 total misses of which 3 are a miller b northern miss and 4 suppress both waves south. That's up from 4 total misses at 12z. But the misses are split between north and south. Basically the 18z went back to being a shotgun blast vs a sniper rifle. No sugar coating it was worse but it wasn't a "where did the storm go" run. There are still plenty of big hits in there. I'm not bothered by the misses to the south. I do not want to see the northern stream miller b camp increase in future runs. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

18z gefs isn't a jump of a cliff run. If we isolate the day 6-9 period at 12x there were 11 flush 5"+ hits. 18z that dropped to 8. Not a statistically huge difference. There are another five 2-4" hits. Then a group of 7 total misses of which 3 are a miller b northern miss and 4 suppress both waves south. That's up from 4 total misses at 12z. But the misses are split between north and south. Basically the 18z went back to being a shotgun blast vs a sniper rifle. No sugar coating it was worse but it wasn't a "where did the storm go" run. There are still plenty of big hits in there. I'm not bothered by the misses to the south. I do not want to see the northern stream miller b camp increase in future runs. 

This.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

18z gefs isn't a jump of a cliff run. If we isolate the day 6-9 period at 12x there were 11 flush 5"+ hits. 18z that dropped to 8. Not a statistically huge difference. There are another five 2-4" hits. Then a group of 7 total misses of which 3 are a miller b northern miss and 4 suppress both waves south. That's up from 4 total misses at 12z. But the misses are split between north and south. Basically the 18z went back to being a shotgun blast vs a sniper rifle. No sugar coating it was worse but it wasn't a "where did the storm go" run. There are still plenty of big hits in there. I'm not bothered by the misses to the south. I do not want to see the northern stream miller b camp increase in future runs. 

I agree 100 percent with rather seeing misses to the south.  Much easier for the trend north.. Seems like once it trends .north of us it's game over

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

So... it's because of that that the models are not doing well with our snow chances?

The models are doing fine. They are extrapolating normal reactions to atmospheric realities. The huge problem here is that we do not have normal conditions. I have observed gracious precip. projections several time during the past 60 days at 5-10 days only to see it dry up in the 48 hr. preview.

[EastCoast NPZ]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah thats kinda my question too. I am not aware of any drought conditions in our sub-forum. I could be wrong. Its been pretty damn moist here though, and snowfall is above avg for the month.

It's been very dry.  Before tonight's .28" I had .28" since Nov 7.  Tonight doubled by precip total from the previous 7 weeks.  Still, that raises my total to just .56".

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, stormy said:

The models are doing fine. They are extrapolating normal reactions to atmospheric realities. The huge problem here is that we do not have normal conditions. I have observed gracious precip. projections several time during the past 60 days at 5-10 days only to see it dry up in the 48 hr. preview.

You're making a mountain out of a mole hill.

1.  It's been somewhat dryer then normal. Not a Sahara level drought.

2. It doesn't take much qpf to get a good snowstorm relatively speaking. 

3. Most of this subforum has already achieved close to climo snow for the month. 

4.  It rained most of last night and all day today across the northern 1/2 of this region. 

Of all the things I'm worried about atmospheric drought memory is on page 7 just below "do I have too much iron in my diet" and just above "I wonder why the deer keep pooping behind that one bush in my yard". 

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's been very dry.  Before tonight's .28" I had .28" since Nov 7.  Tonight doubled by precip total from the previous 7 weeks.  But, that raises my total still to just .56".

The NCEP has most of Va. in a moderate drought. I hope with every opportunity that it will break. Last 24 hrs. .08 rainfall when 48 hrs. previous projections were .60". 23% of normal precip. in December in Shenandoah Valley.

Significant snowfalls do not occur when in drought.

I pray it breaks next weekend.

[Buddy1987]

Fwiw, 18z NAVGEM much less suppressed and more amped looking. Good sign when this model is more amped. MAY prove the gfs is out to lunch. 00z will be interesting.