Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We have some experts here that can probably give a better answer but my educated guess is the details. One of the advantages the euro had for years was a better data assimilation and initialization program and higher resolution. All those things take computing power and money. Then there is all the fine tuning and attention to details in upgrading the algorithms to deal with discovered biases and flaws. Again that takes funding. My guess is these others are either newer to the game and not there yet like the German or lack the funding to do all those little things in other cases. 

It also probably helped that the Euro was behind a paywall (at least the details such as snowfall or precip). This must've given some funding to fix those biases.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Being powerless and the fact that weather can be damn exciting is a nice combo.

Eps showing a straight miller A signal d13. Lol. Madness man. Madness. 

 

Gefs and EPS both look locked and loaded from a potential standpoint. I agree that it would take some biblical bad luck to strike out in this pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

In the late 1970's it was more of a surprise, when a storm moved closer or bombed out, now with 24 /7 weather models and smart phones you always know ( ha ha most times ) what is going to go down in this addictive hobby.  

Many of us older folks can relate to this.... I called 936-1212 incessantly in the 70s. Would get super pissed when the afternoon updated recording was delayed. Would happen often when events were near. Also this one..... flipping between the 3 news stations trying to listen to all 3 weather segments that happened at the same time....lol. TWC came out and it was game set match. 

My wife loves storms too and we would leave TWC on 24/7. We also make special plans for snow events and both sit by the window watching snow fall for hours. We make special meals too. It's entertaining as hell and I agree that it appears to be biological for some reason. I doubt cavemen loved blizzards though...LOL

 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Many of us older folks can relate to this.... I called 936-1212 incessantly in the 70s. Would get super pissed when the afternoon updated recording was delayed. Would happen often when events were near. Also this one..... flipping between the 3 news stations trying to listen to all 3 weather segments that happened at the same time....lol. TWC came out and it was game set match. 

My wife loves storms too and we would leave TWC on 24/7. We also make special plans for snow events and both sit by the window watching snow fall for hours. We make special meals too. It's entertaining as hell and I agree that it appears to be biological for some reason. I doubt cavemen loved blizzards though...LOL

 

I love this .........Back then in the winter months I use to have my weather radio on 24/7 , plus listening to KWY 1060 AM. Newsradio for Accuweather updates , ( On TV is was  Jim O'Brien  -  I loved that guy, miss him dearly after his sky diving death  ) and glancing at my outside cheapo weather station , while recording my local weather obs too.  I like your story Bob , thanks for sharing ! 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs and EPS both look locked and loaded from a potential standpoint. I agree that it would take some biblical bad luck to strike out in this pattern. 

Eps is the second weeniest run I've ever seen with events still out 5 days. The 0z run on the 22nd still holds the throne but this run is damn close. Close to 1.5" mean precip for everyone once the cold pattern sets in. 

If you believe the eps 15 days out...the retreating high on the Jan 7th marks the end of cold and NA shifting into a more pac air regime. Will be interesting to watch the transition and if it holds. A Jan relax is almost guaranteed at some point. What happens beyond that is anyone's guess. Weeklies say winter is over for a while. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Many of us older folks can relate to this.... I called 936-1212 incessantly in the 70s. Would get super pissed when the afternoon updated recording was delayed. Would happen often when events were near. Also this one..... flipping between the 3 news stations trying to listen to all 3 weather segments that happened at the same time....lol. TWC came out and it was game set match. 

My wife loves storms too and we would leave TWC on 24/7. We also make special plans for snow events and both sit by the window watching snow fall for hours. We make special meals too. It's entertaining as hell and I agree that it appears to be biological for some reason. I doubt cavemen loved blizzards though...LOL

 

I remember in high school in the mid 90s always listening and watching the the news updates to read the tea leaves of how things were trending. Waiting for the 5 day business planner on TWC. Even then I noticed we were better off when it showed snow to our south at day 4/5. But that lead to the thrill of the Friday late night news in 96 when Bob Ryan broke in mid newscast without any graphics or anything ready yet to say "this is going to be big".  Will always be one of the top weather moments. We just knew it was coming after that. 

My wife and now my son love snow too. One of our first trips together was getting stuck in "Nemo" in CT.  She helped dig us off the highway.  I knew she was a keeper then. 

[HighStakes]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Many of us older folks can relate to this.... I called 936-1212 incessantly in the 70s. Would get super pissed when the afternoon updated recording was delayed. Would happen often when events were near. Also this one..... flipping between the 3 news stations trying to listen to all 3 weather segments that happened at the same time....lol. TWC came out and it was game set match. 

My wife loves storms too and we would leave TWC on 24/7. We also make special plans for snow events and both sit by the window watching snow fall for hours. We make special meals too. It's entertaining as hell and I agree that it appears to be biological for some reason. I doubt cavemen loved blizzards though...LOL

 

Yes. Would call to the point my mother would yell at me to get off the phone.

Some right remember Elliott Abrams doing the local weather spots for WCBM in Baltimore during the early 80's. His voice and the way he would deliver the forecast was vintage.

Started getting the WC in late 86 right before the great period in 87.

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Many of us older folks can relate to this.... I called 936-1212 incessantly in the 70s. Would get super pissed when the afternoon updated recording was delayed. Would happen often when events were near. Also this one..... flipping between the 3 news stations trying to listen to all 3 weather segments that happened at the same time....lol. TWC came out and it was game set match. 

My wife loves storms too and we would leave TWC on 24/7. We also make special plans for snow events and both sit by the window watching snow fall for hours. We make special meals too. It's entertaining as hell and I agree that it appears to be biological for some reason. I doubt cavemen loved blizzards though...LOL

 

thanks for the jog back down memory lane.  733-1111 for me.  I'd call over and over when storms were coming, and like you, waited for updates as i heard on the radio that things were looking up for a storm. 

 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

I love this .........Back then in the winter months I use to have my weather radio on 24/7 , plus listening to KWY 1060 AM. Newsradio for Accuweather updates , ( On TV is was  Jim O'Brien  -  I loved that guy, miss him dearly after his sky diving death  ) and glancing at my outside cheapo weather station , while recording my local weather obs too.  I like your story Bob , thanks for sharing ! 

He was the best.  RIP Jimbo.

 

[pasnownut]

I still have a NOAA radio that i use around home and at cabin...

WXL 40 for home, and WXM94? for cabin 

[Sparky]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ooh ooh...I know where!!  I know where!!

here?

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps is the second weeniest run I've ever seen with events still out 5 days. The 0z run on the 22nd still holds the throne but this run is damn close. Close to 1.5" mean precip for everyone once the cold pattern sets in. 

If you believe the eps 15 days out...the retreating high on the Jan 7th marks the end of cold and NA shifting into a more pac air regime. Will be interesting to watch the transition and if it holds. A Jan relax is almost guaranteed at some point. What happens beyond that is anyone's guess. Weeklies say winter is over for a while. 

If this coming 15 days is as advertised I doubt anything the rest of winter gets to that level. And a relax has to happen somewhere. But my take is if we score 2 good events here and go into that relax already satisfied then all we need it to luck our way into 1-2 more modest events the rest of the way and we will remember this as a good if not great winter. Even if the rest of winter is no match for the front half I doubt we don't have any threats or windows of opportunity. Even last year we had some chances here and there. Give me a couple hits then I'll take my chances the rest of the way. And I still have my doubts that a flip to warm will last all winter. 10-15 days maybe. But the rest of the way?  Dunno. The relax being hinted at seems to correspond with when the mjo could be heading into warm phases. So that makes sense. But that wave will progress and we will probably have another go at cold or at least null phases by sometime in February which is still our snowiest month. Long range is extra ambiguous this year so give me snow now and I'll let the chips fall where they may later. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

here?

[Bob Chill]

Another eps run with 10 consecutive days at or below freezing. Coldest yet for the first 3 days of Jan. Impressive AF

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If this coming 15 days is as advertised I doubt anything the rest of winter gets to that level. And a relax has to happen somewhere. But my take is if we score 2 good events here and go into that relax already satisfied then all we need it to luck our way into 1-2 more modest events the rest of the way and we will remember this as a good if not great winter. Even if the rest of winter is no match for the front half I doubt we don't have any threats or windows of opportunity. Even last year we had some chances here and there. Give me a couple hits then I'll take my chances the rest of the way. And I still have my doubts that a flip to warm will last all winter. 10-15 days maybe. But the rest of the way?  Dunno. The relax being hinted at seems to correspond with when the mjo could be heading into warm phases. So that makes sense. But that wave will progress and we will probably have another go at cold or at least null phases by sometime in February which is still our snowiest month. Long range is extra ambiguous this year so give me snow now and I'll let the chips fall where they may later. 

 

I agree about the MJO phases and maybe we do get back into a favorable pattern. What I find interesting about later in the winter was a post made by Don S in the NY thread earlier today. He said, when we get to Feb the - AO and the + PNA are not as important as they are now,  as the wavelenghts shorten and things are more dependent on other factors.

Granted, he is focusing on the NYC area. I wonder the relationship to our area. I would think because of our lattitude we need some blocking.     

Hmm,  interesting and Don knows his stuff.   

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another eps run with 10 consecutive days at or below freezing. Coldest yet for the first 3 days of Jan. Impressive AF

And if we can get a snowpack to add to that....we can call ourselves Aaron Burrrrrrrrr for at least a couple weeks!

[wkd]

Memory lane:

I used to listen to a radio show out of Owings Mill Maryland(think that's right). Came on at 6:30 or 7:00 in the morning and lasted about 30 min I believe. Good in depth analysis of the weather nation-wide. I was so pissed when it went off the air.

[smokeybandit]

Such a weird conflict for me.  I'm going to the Fiesta Bowl next weekend.  But part of me doesn't want to leave and miss the snow (if it happens)

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another eps run with 10 consecutive days at or below freezing. Coldest yet for the first 3 days of Jan. Impressive AF

If DC is 9 F. wonder what BWI is ?

Wow .......pretty crazy for so far out. 

What does a deep snow cover do take off 8 degrees or so ?? 

In Dec 2003 or Dec 2005 there was a Dec snowfall near the 5 th ( no surprise there )  , but I looked and my thermometer was almost zero .

 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I agree about the MJO phases and maybe we do get back into a favorable pattern. What I find interesting about later in the winter was a post made by Don S in the NY thread earlier today. He said, when we get to Feb the - AO and the + PNA are not as important as they are now,  as the wavelenghts shorten and things are more dependent on other factors.

Granted, he is focusing on the NYC area. I wonder the relationship to our area. I would think because of our lattitude we need some blocking.     

Hmm,  interesting and Don knows his stuff.   

Don is 100% correct. Margin months like Dec and Mar need something anomalous to be in place to get good events. That's why Dec usually sucks. Lol. 

Jan/Feb can produce with a flawed pattern. Especially Feb becuase you get better clashes of precip and cold. PD2 looks terrible on paper if you look at the numerical teleconnections. There is much less to fret over in Jan/Feb. Jan's barely needs neg temp departures to do something. With that being said, we can definitely have shutout patterns during jan/Feb. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, frd said:

If DC is 9 F. wonder what BWI is ?

Wow .......pretty crazy for so far out. 

What does a deep snow cover do take off 8 degrees or so ?? 

In Dec 2003 or Dec 2005 there was a Dec snowfall near the 5 th ( no surprise there )  , but I looked and my thermometer was almost zero .

 

EPS mean says 9F also.  IF we get some solid snow cover and IF we get a trailing arctic high to park overhead one night with no winds and clear skies, than I could see much of the area getting down into the single digits.  I'm still super skeptical that places like DCA get that cold.  

[gymengineer]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember in high school in the mid 90s always listening and watching the the news updates to read the tea leaves of how things were trending. Waiting for the 5 day business planner on TWC. Even then I noticed we were better off when it showed snow to our south at day 4/5. But that lead to the thrill of the Friday late night news in 96 when Bob Ryan broke in mid newscast without any graphics or anything ready yet to say "this is going to be big".  Will always be one of the top weather moments. We just knew it was coming after that. 

One of my favorite memories of high school too. That was the “winter of the ETA.” He saw the 0Z ETA run that had the low in the classic position and abundant QPF while the MRF had been too progressive. (HPC did a good job identifying the potential of the pattern, and the Euro was fine.) 

Bob Ryan identified top-3 potential and I ran upstairs to yell at my parents: “He’s so brave!” Probably the forecasting highlight of his career.

Then people started over-relying on the ETA— or just telling the viewing public what it showed verbatim. The first example was the 12”+ forecast for 1/12/96. Thankfully that got tamed down to 4-8” the day before.

[Cobalt]

 

[WxUSAF]

Wow...clearest signal I've yet seen from the EPS in terms of precip/snow for the Chill storm.  And a clear signal for a follow up storm around the 4th-5th.  

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow...clearest signal I've yet seen from the EPS in terms of precip/snow for the Chill storm.  And a clear signal for a follow up storm around the 4th-5th.  

Wow.. through the 7th we have a 95% chance of getting 2" or more of snow during that time if the EPS were right

[astarck]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another eps run with 10 consecutive days at or below freezing. Coldest yet for the first 3 days of Jan. Impressive AF

Impressive that the 25th percentile on the 3rd is right at 0 degrees for the low. Or even the 95th percentile on the 2nd is at 33 degrees for the high. That’s impressive agreement.

[Buddy1987]

@Cobalt one of the better write-ups DT has done in a little bit. He tends to get super b*tchy sometimes, but he produced a good synopsis here. 

[mitchnick]

We will thaw in January,  no doubt. Never made this call before, but we will get a SSW this year. Base state is in our favor and the pv has already done some crazy stuff and we've haf some anamolous ridge around the Pole.  It's ripe for it to happen.  I think that results in a decent pattern for ay leadt 10-14 days.

[H2O]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don is 100% correct. Margin months like Dec and Mar need something anomalous to be in place to get good events. That's why Dec usually sucks. Lol. 

Jan/Feb can produce with a flawed pattern. Especially Feb becuase you get better clashes of precip and cold. PD2 looks terrible on paper if you look at the numerical teleconnections. There is much less to fret over in Jan/Feb. Jan's barely needs neg temp departures to do something. With that being said, we can definitely have shutout patterns during jan/Feb. 

Exactly. A pattern relaxing in J-F isn’t as dire as Dec or Mar. climo works for us so if we have a snowpack or been in a deep freeze for a while early in the season it can help with any marginal that happens if the pattern changes a little. Stuff now helps down the road

[poolz1]

HGR...11 day stretch below freezing.  Should be some good Potomac River pics coming soon...Love walking the toe path with snow on the ground and chunks of ice flowing down the river.  Makes you feel alive..