Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The eps is showing a consolidated trop pv centered in the Arctic by the end the last few runs. Is what it is but the ao/nao have been terrible this year beyond 7-10 days. We probably won't know where things are going for mid Jan until the end of Dec. If we score big and things go to crap I really won't care. This is shaping up the best early tracking season we've had since I joined eastern in 06. It hasn't been boring one single time since before thanksgiving. I can understand the western and some nova folks not sharing the same enthusiasm yet though. Hopefully that changes here over the next 10 days. 

 

That look has been getting pushed back some the last 48 hours. I have doubts. Gefs and geps isn't as bad wrt the arctic. Could go that way I'm just not convinced it does. I'd rather have good patterns and be worried about day 15 bad looks then the other way around. Pretty sure the EPS had a positive AO/NAO during this time a week ago also. 

[Bob Chill]

Didnt see this posted yet...Geps strongly supports the gefs and euro op type oF progression. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Didnt see this posted yet...Geps strongly supports the gefs and euro op type oF progression. 

Gfs caused a mini freak out moment but all in all 12z runs were a win imo. 

[WhiteoutWX]

Glad to see the OP GFS is out on an island for the most part. The classic case of GFS losing the storm at mid-range? Not sure how much of that is a myth though lol.

[gymengineer]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's probably my only complaint with all the big storms we've had since 09-10. They seem to time with the end of the cold pattern. Feb can melt pavement with ease even in the 20's during the day. This particular event (if it happens) brings back thoughts of some of the storms we had in the 80's. Big staying power. Although Feb Mar 03 was pretty special for late season stuff. It was still late season. I want snow in between lanes on the roads for 5 days. Relive the good ole days 

To be fair, plowing kind of sucked in the 80’s like we were a real southern city or something  

I read the articles about the first Jan 87 storm and it’s like everyone just gave up on attempting to clear roads since it was a surprise. “Maybe it’ll just go away....” 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs caused a mini freak out moment but all in all 12z runs were a win imo. 

Freeking out is something that comes with every single event at range. We're far from done freeking out on this one. Lol. I expect some epic melts over the next 4 days. By then we should be at a point where we might be sure we're getting something no matter what and becomes an exercise in how much. It's a good setup where we can lock into high prob of snow @ d4. Many storms never offer that type of lead confidence. Blocking can be wonderful like that when it works.

I slept in for the first time in weeks and I woke up expecting good things. Then I saw the 6z gfs and was like dammit...then 12z ran before I finished my coffee and the "oh noes" started setting in. 

[poolz1]

MSLP panels look great so far on the EPS.  Bigger signal for coastal than 00z imo

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Freeking out is something that comes with every single event at range. We're far from dome freeking out on this one. Lol. I expect some epic melts over the next 4 days. By then we should be at a point where we might be sure we're getting something no matter what and becomes an exercise in how much. It's a good setup were we can lock into high prob of snow @ d4. Many storms never offer that type of leaf confidence. Blocking can be wonderful like that when it works.

I slept in for the first time in weeks and I woke up expecting good things. Then I saw the 6z gfs and was like dammit...then 12z ran before I finished my coffee and the "oh noes" started setting in. 

How a soon before the fringed talk comes out? I'm looking at you hoff

[WxUSAF]

EPS is much better than the 0z version. Still looks like a few members don't have a full transfer to the coast, but seems to have mostly lost the "cut to Milwaukee" cluster that popped up out of nowhere last night on the 0z.  

[WhiteoutWX]

It's hard to tell from the means if those lower pressure in the Lakes are from a cutter or from the surface trough we've seen extending northwestward from the coast to the northern stream PV rotating in for the phase. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

How a soon before the fringed talk comes out? I'm looking at you hoff

I don't break that out until inside 48 hours. 

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Glad to see the OP GFS is out on an island for the most part. The classic case of GFS losing the storm at mid-range? Not sure how much of that is a myth though lol.

Its not a myth....look at 12z Op.  Call it whatever you want...it went poof.  Over the years, this has happened before and will happen again.  And not only the GFS (today just so happens to be its day).

Edit - it usually finds its way back around 48-72.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

It's hard to tell from the means if those lower pressure in the Lakes are from a cutter or from the surface trough we've seen extending northwestward from the coast to the northern stream PV rotating in for the phase. 

Yeah, true, but I think some of them are the primary low that doesn't die just based on the 24 hour evolution before that panel I posted. Still way better than last night's version. I would expect some flush hits in the members and a solid mean snowfall.  

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Huge cluster of coastals around Day 7 per Eps.  Real nice bump up from 0z

Very supportive and nearly identical to the 12z gefs/Geps and we're just entering the range where it's no longer a fantasy. Great run man. All systems go except the stupid gfs. 18z might be a party. 

[Cobalt]

 

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very supportive and nearly identical to the 12z gefs/Geps and we're just entering the range where it's no longer a fantasy. Great run man. All systems go except the stupid gfs. 18z might be a party. 

Pooper? 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, true, but I think some of them are the primary low that doesn't die just based on the 24 hour evolution before that panel I posted. Still way better than last night's version. I would expect some flush hits in the members and a solid mean snowfall.  

Great run. Especially when you toggle 0z. Seeing the big jump in ky/tn is another vote of confidence that the west track is losing support. Can really ask for a better ens suite than 12z. 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Huge cluster of coastals around Day 7 per Eps.  Real nice bump up from 0z

Pretty much fits the pattern. It supports a track much closer to the coast than the euro shows.  Question as always is does the mid atlantic get screwed?  

[Buddy1987]

Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM?

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM?

Didn't notice the NAVGEM...bad?

EDIT:  suckage

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

It's hard to tell from the means if those lower pressure in the Lakes are from a cutter or from the surface trough we've seen extending northwestward from the coast to the northern stream PV rotating in for the phase. 

When I loop the h5 and mslp panels it looks like the low pressure near the lakes is exlcusively caused by the northern stream energy rotating through and is not caused by a cluster of west tracks. Seems the eps backed off a good bit on the west tracks just like the other 12z ens. Very impressive ens agreement today for a solid event and it's obvious by d5-6. Still not in high confidence rage yet. Just need to get through 2-3 more days and we can drop the "if" discussion and start the "how much" one. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Didn't notice the NAVGEM...bad?

EDIT:  suckage

Yea man NAVGEM was a suppressed piece. Will say tho it had been good, so maybe one blip for the 12z run. 

[psuhoffman]

JMA is with us. For what it's worth. 

qpf jumps about .75 during that time. 

[wkd]

1 hour ago, das said:

Like the clockwork precision of the swallows returning to Capistrano, we return to the models every 6 hours for some guidance. I’m pretty sure it’s a biological thing, just like with the swallows. 

I think there may be something to the biological aspect of this hobby. I have met people from all walks of life that have surprised me with their addiction to weather.  For the young folks in here I can assure you that you will probably be cursed with this addiction for the rest of your life. I recently turned 71 and have been excited about storms, in particular snowstorms for as long a I can remember. The introduction of computers and the internet made this hobby doubly addictive. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

JMA is with us. For what it's worth. 

qpf jumps about .75 during that time. 

For another discussion but always wonder what makes a bad model bad?  I mean no one sets out to build a crappy weather model.  Yet we have no faith in this one and others.  Wonder if they just don't update the algorithms or was it a POS from the beginning.  What's preventing a JMA from becoming a Euro.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

I think there may be something to the biological aspect of this hobby. I have met people from all walks of life that have surprised me with their addiction to weather.  For the young folks in here I can assure you that you will probably be cursed with this addiction for the rest of your life. I recently turned 71 and have been excited about storms, in particular snowstorms for as long a I can remember. The introduction of computers and the internet made this hobby doubly addictive. 

Being powerless and the fact that weather can be damn exciting is a nice combo.

Eps showing a straight miller A signal d13. Lol. Madness man. Madness. 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When I loop the h5 and mslp panels it looks like the low pressure near the lakes is exlcusively caused by the northern stream energy rotating through and is not caused by a cluster of west tracks. Seems the eps backed off a good bit on the west tracks just like the other 12z ens. Very impressive ens agreement today for a solid event and it's obvious by d5-6. Still not in high confidence rage yet. Just need to get through 2-3 more days and we can drop the "if" discussion and start the "how much" one. 

The only way that lakes low becomes an issue is if the southern stream part of this equation washes out and we end up rooting for a northern stream phase miller b. There are a few ensembles that do that. The euro control does it. Not enough to be overly concerned but imo that's our greatest risk of a fail. With that low and upper support so far back like that if the initial stj wave doesn't materialize things would probably take too long to get going for us if we're relying on a phase with that lakes low. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, wkd said:

I think there may be something to the biological aspect of this hobby. I have met people from all walks of life that have surprised me with their addiction to weather.  For the young folks in here I can assure you that you will probably be cursed with this addiction for the rest of your life. I recently turned 71 and have been excited about storms, in particular snowstorms for as long a I can remember. The introduction of computers and the internet made this hobby doubly addictive. 

In the late 1970's it was more of a surprise, when a storm moved closer or bombed out, now with 24 /7 weather models and smart phones you always know ( ha ha most times ) what is going to go down in this addictive hobby.  

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, wkd said:

I think there may be something to the biological aspect of this hobby. I have met people from all walks of life that have surprised me with their addiction to weather.  For the young folks in here I can assure you that you will probably be cursed with this addiction for the rest of your life. I recently turned 71 and have been excited about storms, in particular snowstorms for as long a I can remember. The introduction of computers and the internet made this hobby doubly addictive. 

Being a high school student, I can fully agree with what you said about the addiction. What started as following The Weather Channel in 4th or 5th grade so I would know if there would be storms so school would be cancelled has become something different. Weekend storms are as good as weekday storms now. The part about school being cancelled is just another extra part of it.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

For another discussion but always wonder what makes a bad model bad?  I mean no one sets out to build a crappy weather model.  Yet we have no faith in this one and others.  Wonder if they just don't update the algorithms or was it a POS from the beginning.  What's preventing a JMA from becoming a Euro.

We have some experts here that can probably give a better answer but my educated guess is the details. One of the advantages the euro had for years was a better data assimilation and initialization program and higher resolution. All those things take computing power and money. Then there is all the fine tuning and attention to details in upgrading the algorithms to deal with discovered biases and flaws. Again that takes funding. My guess is these others are either newer to the game and not there yet like the German or lack the funding to do all those little things in other cases.