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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ends up driving main energy into OV as a cutter but that isnt important right now. The changes in the medium range leading up tp 174ish are the key trends THIS run. Gonna be a lonnnnnnng week with lots of ups and downs probably. Fasten your seatbelts. Im on board the train anyway....choo choo!

Yeah this has miller B look to it no doubt.

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted

If we get anything like advertised on the GFS we are gonna be in for days of ice capped snow.  Several inches of snow.. some freezing rain and rain and then an arctic blast. The cold invading in to the CONUS in the beginning of 2018 looks to be pretty legit 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

****Just saw the 06z GFS. WOW!!! Tell you what, if my thoughts below are wrong I sure hope they are wrong in this direction. 30+ inches (12" plus a whole bunch of ice), would take that in a heartbeat. And here I was trying to bolster peoples moral. Guess the GFS already did that.  :) ***

_________________________________

Been following the models for the last couple of days but have been so busy I really haven't had time to post. Anyway I thought I would get my thoughts out there while I had a chance.

*Now remember 'I am a half glass full' sort of guy so take that into account when reading.*

Now as far as everything in general. I stick by my statement from last week that this stretch we are heading into has the potential to rival some of the better stretches of cold and snow we have seen in recent memory. But as we all know by now timing and luck play a big part for snow in our region so keep that in mind. Now what I am seeing is an actively moving pv located in a favorable location in Canada for our local, a mean trough that we are continuously on the base or front side of, cross polar flow continuously pumping cold into central and eastern US, an active southern jet not to mention what looks to be 3 jets running through the CONUS at most times, and an active pattern with energy flowing everywhere (all three jets and around the pv itself) from Christmas through the end of the runs. To make it even sweeter it looks as if this general overall pattern I mentioned above will extend beyond the end of the runs, probably by a good bit, as everything for the most part looks very stable. Now barring a major breakdown of the models, I could probably put good money on us doing well over the coming several weeks and feel very comfortable with that bet.

As far as Christmas. Except for the fact the cold is coming in quicker we are seeing pretty much what I had expected and somewhat hoped for. And I still would not be surprised if the cold is delayed somewhat from what is currently depicted. Thought the odds of snow (besides some flurries or snow showers) were of low odds because of the progressive nature of the cold and the issues with timing low development to coincide with the cold push. The cold is somewhat muted and we are not seeing the deep southward push into the central part of the country from runs several days ago. We are also seeing the cold pushing in from the northwest vs. previous runs of from the west. These are all good things because it means we will not have the cold overwhelming everything and actually sets up any potential boundary in a much more favorable SW to NE tilt for the days following Christmas.

Now as far as the period following Christmas. I am starting to have high hopes for the period from late Wed/Thursday through the weekend. Not going into the nitty gritty but from what I have been seeing from the models suggest we may be possibly looking at a one, two punch. For late Wed/Thursday I would not be surprised in the coming days that the models start keying on a possible storm running from the mid-west and underneath us (there is a possibility that it could be somewhat suppressed). This storm, if it exists, would have a capped upside for our region (2-4 type deal?) because of its progressive nature but the ramifications for the weekend would possibly be huge. At this point everyone has been keying on a possible event over the weekend. Models have been showing just about every solution available (not sure I really buy the solutions showing the huge ridging developing in the central potion of the country nor the northward push into the Mid-west by the low). Now at this point I look at the models and to me they suggest any storm during this time frame would probably be somewhat suppressed. This is where our potential Thur. storm comes into play. At this point the setup shows a suppressive flat flow heading off the east coast even though we see the pv and surface lows located just west of the 50/50 region which would typically back up flow. But in this case the PV is elongated in nature which does nothing to back up the flow. But insert the possible Thursday storm into the equation and what we see is the pv lobe out south and west to accommodate this low moving through the 50/50. This would create backing which would in turn mean that the weekend storm instead of being suppressed and heading out sea would now probably run up the coast from the deep south with tropical jet moisture embedded within it. A possible big ticket item.

Now I will mention that the above scenario actually has some support within the ensembles which have an uptick through the Wed/Thur time period and a much more substantial uptick for the weekend. At this point I am not going to parse through the individual members but would not be surprised if some of better looking members have some version of this playing out. 

 

 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

****Just saw the 06z GFS. WOW!!! Tell you what, if my thoughts below are wrong I sure hope they are wrong in this direction. 30+ inches (12" plus a whole bunch of ice), would take that in a heartbeat. And here I was trying to bolster peoples moral. Guess the GFS already did that.  :) ***

_________________________________

Been following the models for the last couple of days but have been so busy I really haven't had time to post. Anyway I thought I would get my thoughts out there while I had a chance.

*Now remember 'I am a half glass full' sort of guy so take that into account when reading.*

Now as far as everything in general. I stick by my statement from last week that this stretch we are heading into has the potential to rival some of the better stretches of cold and snow we have seen in recent memory. But as we all know by now timing and luck play a big part for snow in our region so keep that in mind. Now what I am seeing is an actively moving pv located in a favorable location in Canada for our local, a mean trough that we are continuously on the base or front side of, cross polar flow continuously pumping cold into central and eastern US, an active southern jet not to mention what looks to be 3 jets running through the CONUS at most times, and an active pattern with energy flowing everywhere (all three jets and around the pv itself) from Christmas through the end of the runs. To make it even sweeter it looks as if this general overall pattern I mentioned above will extend beyond the end of the runs, probably by a good bit, as everything for the most part looks very stable. Now barring a major breakdown of the models, I could probably put good money on us doing well over the coming several weeks and feel very comfortable with that bet.

As far as Christmas. Except for the fact the cold is coming in quicker we are seeing pretty much what I had expected and somewhat hoped for. And I still would not be surprised if the cold is delayed somewhat from what is currently depicted. Thought the odds of snow (besides some flurries or snow showers) were of low odds because of the progressive nature of the cold and the issues with timing low development to coincide with the cold push. The cold is somewhat muted and we are not seeing the deep southward push into the central part of the country from runs several days ago. We are also seeing the cold pushing in from the northwest vs. previous runs of from the west. These are all good things because it means we will not have the cold overwhelming everything and actually sets up any potential boundary in a much more favorable SW to NE tilt for the days following Christmas.

Now as far as the period following Christmas. I am starting to have high hopes for the period from late Wed/Thursday through the weekend. Not going into the nitty gritty but from what I have been seeing from the models suggest we may be possibly looking at a one, two punch. For late Wed/Thursday I would not be surprised in the coming days that the models start keying on a possible storm running from the mid-west and underneath us (there is a possibility that it could be somewhat suppressed). This storm, if it exists, would have a capped upside for our region (2-4 type deal?) because of its progressive nature but the ramifications for the weekend would possibly be huge. At this point everyone has been keying on a possible event over the weekend. Models have been showing just about every solution available (not sure I really buy the solutions showing the huge ridging developing in the central potion of the country nor the northward push into the Mid-west by the low). Now at this point I look at the models and to me they suggest any storm during this time frame would probably be somewhat suppressed. This is where our potential Thur. storm comes into play. At this point the setup shows a suppressive flat flow heading off the east coast even though we see the pv and surface lows located just east of the 50/50 region which would typically back up flow. But in this case the PV is elongated in nature which does nothing to back up the flow. But insert the possible Thursday storm into the equation and what we see is the pv lobe out south and west to accomadate this low moving through the 50/50. This would create backing which would in turn mean that the weekend storm instead of being suppressed and heading out sea would now probably run up the coast from the deep south with tropical jet moisture embedded within it. A possible big ticket item.

Now I will mention that the above scenario actually has some support within the ensembles which have an uptick through the Wed/Thur time period and a much more substantial uptick for the weekend. At this point I am not going to parse through the individual members but would not be surprised if some of better looking members have some version of this playing out. 

 

 

Great post! As we all have said during this December, some winters, it just wants to snow. We'll see if this holds true after the 1st week of January, or if we're lucky, next week.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps.  They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 

240hr maps are fine.  

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps.  They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 

240hr maps are fine.  

I thought accums only go out to 240 on GFS... ?

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
I can’t believe i listened to Ralph Wiggum.  Saw his post about it “not getting there yet” and closed the browser.  Then i come back and....
Lol. Still not fully there yet either. If primary didnt ride up the OV and over the Eastern GL and instead redeveloped as a Miller B offshore like Euro/CMC then the GFS would have been widespread 3-5' with 7' lollis. Sheer insanity run Randy.
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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps.  They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 

240hr maps are fine.  

If I own some of that, my apologies. It was early and board was largely asleep (cept fr that rockstar drinking Cobalt n Wiggie). 

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