Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm so glad I stayed up for this. These weird storms that the models create are pretty amazing. I would sign up for this. 12-24" and then a couple more inches of ice for good luck. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Ends up driving main energy into OV as a cutter but that isnt important right now. The changes in the medium range leading up tp 174ish are the key trends THIS run. Gonna be a lonnnnnnng week with lots of ups and downs probably. Fasten your seatbelts. Im on board the train anyway....choo choo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ends up driving main energy into OV as a cutter but that isnt important right now. The changes in the medium range leading up tp 174ish are the key trends THIS run. Gonna be a lonnnnnnng week with lots of ups and downs probably. Fasten your seatbelts. Im on board the train anyway....choo choo! Yeah this has miller B look to it no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yeah this has miller B look to it no doubt.Very pd2-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Quite the winter storm shaping up for next Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 186-260 is solid precip. Everyone loves a 3 day storm.... Holy Crap!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Is this type of setup even possible? Not only for the CAD to hold, but the intensity of the precip. Would basically look like rain if you looked outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 186-260 is solid precip. Everyone loves a 3 day storm.... Holy Crap!! And another storm way out in fantasy range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Sweet mother of ...... look at 384, cause it never fails to produce..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 if only snow maps went to 384.... Sorry...i'm a visual guy and like perty pictures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 as I'm looking for trends this far out..... I'll take this as a positive one. Gotta go get ready to work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GFS is advertising a high temp of 24 at BWI at 18z Friday, 12/29. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ CAD for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Went to be early last night. Did I miss anything? Lol Gfs. Can't live with, can't live without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 That may very well be the most weenie op run I ever recall seeing in terms of overall chances, cold, and totals. Its obviously not going to play out exactly as depicted but really sick run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Went to be early last night. Did I miss anything? Lol Gfs. Can't live with, can't live without it. EPS was even better. 5.5" mean near New Years for DC. Euro was very var south, but that's not the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If we get anything like advertised on the GFS we are gonna be in for days of ice capped snow. Several inches of snow.. some freezing rain and rain and then an arctic blast. The cold invading in to the CONUS in the beginning of 2018 looks to be pretty legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 ****Just saw the 06z GFS. WOW!!! Tell you what, if my thoughts below are wrong I sure hope they are wrong in this direction. 30+ inches (12" plus a whole bunch of ice), would take that in a heartbeat. And here I was trying to bolster peoples moral. Guess the GFS already did that. *** _________________________________ Been following the models for the last couple of days but have been so busy I really haven't had time to post. Anyway I thought I would get my thoughts out there while I had a chance. *Now remember 'I am a half glass full' sort of guy so take that into account when reading.* Now as far as everything in general. I stick by my statement from last week that this stretch we are heading into has the potential to rival some of the better stretches of cold and snow we have seen in recent memory. But as we all know by now timing and luck play a big part for snow in our region so keep that in mind. Now what I am seeing is an actively moving pv located in a favorable location in Canada for our local, a mean trough that we are continuously on the base or front side of, cross polar flow continuously pumping cold into central and eastern US, an active southern jet not to mention what looks to be 3 jets running through the CONUS at most times, and an active pattern with energy flowing everywhere (all three jets and around the pv itself) from Christmas through the end of the runs. To make it even sweeter it looks as if this general overall pattern I mentioned above will extend beyond the end of the runs, probably by a good bit, as everything for the most part looks very stable. Now barring a major breakdown of the models, I could probably put good money on us doing well over the coming several weeks and feel very comfortable with that bet. As far as Christmas. Except for the fact the cold is coming in quicker we are seeing pretty much what I had expected and somewhat hoped for. And I still would not be surprised if the cold is delayed somewhat from what is currently depicted. Thought the odds of snow (besides some flurries or snow showers) were of low odds because of the progressive nature of the cold and the issues with timing low development to coincide with the cold push. The cold is somewhat muted and we are not seeing the deep southward push into the central part of the country from runs several days ago. We are also seeing the cold pushing in from the northwest vs. previous runs of from the west. These are all good things because it means we will not have the cold overwhelming everything and actually sets up any potential boundary in a much more favorable SW to NE tilt for the days following Christmas. Now as far as the period following Christmas. I am starting to have high hopes for the period from late Wed/Thursday through the weekend. Not going into the nitty gritty but from what I have been seeing from the models suggest we may be possibly looking at a one, two punch. For late Wed/Thursday I would not be surprised in the coming days that the models start keying on a possible storm running from the mid-west and underneath us (there is a possibility that it could be somewhat suppressed). This storm, if it exists, would have a capped upside for our region (2-4 type deal?) because of its progressive nature but the ramifications for the weekend would possibly be huge. At this point everyone has been keying on a possible event over the weekend. Models have been showing just about every solution available (not sure I really buy the solutions showing the huge ridging developing in the central potion of the country nor the northward push into the Mid-west by the low). Now at this point I look at the models and to me they suggest any storm during this time frame would probably be somewhat suppressed. This is where our potential Thur. storm comes into play. At this point the setup shows a suppressive flat flow heading off the east coast even though we see the pv and surface lows located just west of the 50/50 region which would typically back up flow. But in this case the PV is elongated in nature which does nothing to back up the flow. But insert the possible Thursday storm into the equation and what we see is the pv lobe out south and west to accommodate this low moving through the 50/50. This would create backing which would in turn mean that the weekend storm instead of being suppressed and heading out sea would now probably run up the coast from the deep south with tropical jet moisture embedded within it. A possible big ticket item. Now I will mention that the above scenario actually has some support within the ensembles which have an uptick through the Wed/Thur time period and a much more substantial uptick for the weekend. At this point I am not going to parse through the individual members but would not be surprised if some of better looking members have some version of this playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The fact is is that the GFS has been consistently showing CAD event for the last several runs. This morning it went a little Ape Sh%t but hey.. I'll take it. Now.. If we could just get the EURO to agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: ****Just saw the 06z GFS. WOW!!! Tell you what, if my thoughts below are wrong I sure hope they are wrong in this direction. 30+ inches (12" plus a whole bunch of ice), would take that in a heartbeat. And here I was trying to bolster peoples moral. Guess the GFS already did that. *** _________________________________ Been following the models for the last couple of days but have been so busy I really haven't had time to post. Anyway I thought I would get my thoughts out there while I had a chance. *Now remember 'I am a half glass full' sort of guy so take that into account when reading.* Now as far as everything in general. I stick by my statement from last week that this stretch we are heading into has the potential to rival some of the better stretches of cold and snow we have seen in recent memory. But as we all know by now timing and luck play a big part for snow in our region so keep that in mind. Now what I am seeing is an actively moving pv located in a favorable location in Canada for our local, a mean trough that we are continuously on the base or front side of, cross polar flow continuously pumping cold into central and eastern US, an active southern jet not to mention what looks to be 3 jets running through the CONUS at most times, and an active pattern with energy flowing everywhere (all three jets and around the pv itself) from Christmas through the end of the runs. To make it even sweeter it looks as if this general overall pattern I mentioned above will extend beyond the end of the runs, probably by a good bit, as everything for the most part looks very stable. Now barring a major breakdown of the models, I could probably put good money on us doing well over the coming several weeks and feel very comfortable with that bet. As far as Christmas. Except for the fact the cold is coming in quicker we are seeing pretty much what I had expected and somewhat hoped for. And I still would not be surprised if the cold is delayed somewhat from what is currently depicted. Thought the odds of snow (besides some flurries or snow showers) were of low odds because of the progressive nature of the cold and the issues with timing low development to coincide with the cold push. The cold is somewhat muted and we are not seeing the deep southward push into the central part of the country from runs several days ago. We are also seeing the cold pushing in from the northwest vs. previous runs of from the west. These are all good things because it means we will not have the cold overwhelming everything and actually sets up any potential boundary in a much more favorable SW to NE tilt for the days following Christmas. Now as far as the period following Christmas. I am starting to have high hopes for the period from late Wed/Thursday through the weekend. Not going into the nitty gritty but from what I have been seeing from the models suggest we may be possibly looking at a one, two punch. For late Wed/Thursday I would not be surprised in the coming days that the models start keying on a possible storm running from the mid-west and underneath us (there is a possibility that it could be somewhat suppressed). This storm, if it exists, would have a capped upside for our region (2-4 type deal?) because of its progressive nature but the ramifications for the weekend would possibly be huge. At this point everyone has been keying on a possible event over the weekend. Models have been showing just about every solution available (not sure I really buy the solutions showing the huge ridging developing in the central potion of the country nor the northward push into the Mid-west by the low). Now at this point I look at the models and to me they suggest any storm during this time frame would probably be somewhat suppressed. This is where our potential Thur. storm comes into play. At this point the setup shows a suppressive flat flow heading off the east coast even though we see the pv and surface lows located just east of the 50/50 region which would typically back up flow. But in this case the PV is elongated in nature which does nothing to back up the flow. But insert the possible Thursday storm into the equation and what we see is the pv lobe out south and west to accomadate this low moving through the 50/50. This would create backing which would in turn mean that the weekend storm instead of being suppressed and heading out sea would now probably run up the coast from the deep south with tropical jet moisture embedded within it. A possible big ticket item. Now I will mention that the above scenario actually has some support within the ensembles which have an uptick through the Wed/Thur time period and a much more substantial uptick for the weekend. At this point I am not going to parse through the individual members but would not be surprised if some of better looking members have some version of this playing out. Great post! As we all have said during this December, some winters, it just wants to snow. We'll see if this holds true after the 1st week of January, or if we're lucky, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I can’t believe i listened to Ralph Wiggum. Saw his post about it “not getting there yet” and closed the browser. Then i come back and.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps. They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 240hr maps are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps. They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 240hr maps are fine. I thought accums only go out to 240 on GFS... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 no. maps for snow for an entire run can be found and they are being posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 so if the posted maps even remotely pan out, will it be enough to get IAN to return to the forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS Snow mean through day 16 is impressive to say the least Signal of a snowy period is there. We just need a bit of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looking at the precip type maps on the GFS and comparing to that snow map shows you why snow maps are trash, particularly in mix events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I can’t believe i listened to Ralph Wiggum. Saw his post about it “not getting there yet” and closed the browser. Then i come back and....Lol. Still not fully there yet either. If primary didnt ride up the OV and over the Eastern GL and instead redeveloped as a Miller B offshore like Euro/CMC then the GFS would have been widespread 3-5' with 7' lollis. Sheer insanity run Randy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think I jinxed it too.. In a good way though. I said that the 12z run would show a big hit, thinking that the 6z run would be to our North. Only as good as digital snow this far out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Here is the warming at 10mb 500mb With 10mb remaining the same through early January, Evolution favors 500mb-centered ridging to recenter around 10mb anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, H2O said: Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps. They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 240hr maps are fine. If I own some of that, my apologies. It was early and board was largely asleep (cept fr that rockstar drinking Cobalt n Wiggie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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