WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I'd expect really strong frontogenesis to produce a nice banding feature somewhere. Ooh ooh...I know where!! I know where!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a junior version of 12z yesterday. Lots of upside with the progression. Zero temp worries. Backside would be high ratio. .5-.8 qpf for all. Would pile up nicely. Bob, does it have nice overrunning down my way and the Carolinas as well before it transfers and does it get ccb back this way or is it too late out this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Feb/Mar 2015 so not too far back. Time of year seals the deal. This would be around till the inevitable Jan thaw. True, my memory sucks but it seems like drip drip happens fast lately. Be nice to hang onto some pack for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Glad to see we're all on the same page. Good run. Win in my book. Leaves the door open to something bigger too. Upper level stuff swings through and drops another inch for that extra appeal. I know there is upside here but if this event happened it would be 6-12" for everyone in the sub followed by the deep freeze. Perfect way to close the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ooh ooh...I know where!! I know where!! So do I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ooh ooh...I know where!! I know where!! Lol,and I know where it won't set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Bob, does it have nice overrunning down my way and the Carolinas as well before it transfers and does it get ccb back this way or is it too late out this way? I don't know your climo well but it looks like a high end event for the norther half of NC. Especially piedmont and west. Too far south for the coastal bombing but you make up for it with perfect overunning conditions and lots of moisture. We get a lull in storms like this. Our overunning tails as the coastal winds up. You guys would never lull. It would come in, dump half a foot+, then shut off. Party down south dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Upper level stuff swings through and drops another inch for that extra appeal. I know there is upside here but if this event happened it would be 6-12" for everyone in the sub followed by the deep freeze. Perfect way to close the year. I'd take this for sure. But it wouldn't take much to turn into a bigger event either. It phases just a tad late this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Lol,and I know where it won't set up. The trailing upper level energy might wash out the banding in the usual places....nah, who am I kidding. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The trailing upper level energy might wash out the banding in the usual places....nah, who am I kidding. Lol Bob...your headlights are on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro hints at the potential day 11 storm the gefs was all over too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: True, my memory sucks but it seems like drip drip happens fast lately. Be nice to hang onto some pack for a minute That's probably my only complaint with all the big storms we've had since 09-10. They seem to time with the end of the cold pattern. Feb can melt pavement with ease even in the 20's during the day. This particular event (if it happens) brings back thoughts of some of the storms we had in the 80's. Big staying power. Although Feb Mar 03 was pretty special for late season stuff. It was still late season. I want snow in between lanes on the roads for 5 days. Relive the good ole days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro gives VA 1" of snow as the ball drops and has our next event setting up at D9-10 in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ooh ooh...I know where!! I know where!! Warm up the amps, tune up the guitars, the MoCo/HoCo death band is back out on tour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The cold showing up after the storm is starting to rival February 2015 but with a much better sun angle for a deep freeze. Going to be an exhausting 2 weeks of tracking. If the storm on the 29th is a hit, it appears we'll be immediately tracking the next storm right after new year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The trailing upper level energy might wash out the banding in the usual places....nah, who am I kidding. Lol Don't taze me bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro hints at the potential day 11 storm the gefs was all over too. There's potential in between the two as well. That's the saving grace here. All models show a parade of pac shortwaves every 2-3 days. It would take excessive bad luck to swing and miss everything before things shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's potential in between the two as well. That's the saving grace here. All models show a parade of pac shortwaves every 2-3 days. It would take excessive bad luck to swing and miss everything before things shuffle. Yep. It's about as loaded a pattern as we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't taze me bro Nah, your climo is undeniable. I had a run in 14-15 and the 16 blizz was extra kind. I'm done for a while. I'm good with regressing to the middle of the pack. You'll never hear me complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yep. It's about as loaded a pattern as we can get. I wouldn't sleep on the midweek s/w next week. Not for a big event, but a nice vort pass could drop a dusting+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Hopefully the EPS support the OP... would be nice to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Perfect population center stripe. Millions of weenies from the SE to NNE party together on this run. No sub wars or jealousy on this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Perfect population center stripe. Millions of weenies from the SE to NNE party together on this run. No sub wars or jealousy on this panel. That's a beaut Bob. We all score, even at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The pattern isn't going to last forever, I have no doubts a relax will come in mid January. The question is does it relax and reload like we just went through or a true flip to a permanent warm pattern. Looking at the day 15 ensembles I'm not sure I believe a flip. It looks kind of similar to what we are dealing with now. The dominant features of winter so far seem intact but the guidance is trying to dump a trough into the SW again. That idea has been fought off several times already. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a relaxation before reload not a permanent flip when we do warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully the EPS support the OP... would be nice to see that Were at d5-6 so still beyond decent skill for the ops. I'm sure there will be some support for the op but buried in the spread will be the typical upside and swing/misses. The things I'm most interested in is how much support there is for a west track or a phase. Gefs showed virutally no west tracks and a couple bombs. Would love to see the eps support a phase/bomb. The op was very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Perfect population center stripe. Millions of weenies from the SE to NNE party together on this run. No sub wars or jealousy on this panel. 10:1 heh I want that elusive unicorn 15:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 10:1 heh I want that elusive unicorn 15:1 ratio With that setup, I'd imagine the average would be closer to 12:1 and someone (I can guess who!) in banding structures would probably get periods of 15:1 or even a little better. Euro has lows near zero (sub-zero N/W) on the morning of the 2nd. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern isn't going to last forever, I have no doubts a relax will come in mid January. The question is does it relax and reload like we just went through or a true flip to a permanent warm pattern. Looking at the day 15 ensembles I'm not sure I believe a flip. It looks kind of similar to what we are dealing with now. The dominant features of winter so far seem intact but the guidance is trying to dump a trough into the SW again. That idea has been fought off several times already. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a relaxation before reload not a permanent flip when we do warm up. The eps is showing a consolidated trop pv centered in the Arctic by the end the last few runs. Is what it is but the ao/nao forecasts have been terrible this year beyond 7-10 days. We probably won't know where things are going for mid Jan until the end of Dec. If we score big and things go to crap I really won't care. This is shaping up the best early tracking season we've had since I joined eastern in 06. It hasn't been boring one single time since before thanksgiving. I can understand the western and some nova folks not sharing the same enthusiasm yet though. Hopefully that changes here over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Kuchara even better everyone from NC north gets love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern isn't going to last forever, I have no doubts a relax will come in mid January. The question is does it relax and reload like we just went through or a true flip to a permanent warm pattern. Looking at the day 15 ensembles I'm not sure I believe a flip. It looks kind of similar to what we are dealing with now. The dominant features of winter so far seem intact but the guidance is trying to dump a trough into the SW again. That idea has been fought off several times already. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a relaxation before reload not a permanent flip when we do warm up. HM had a chart up on on Twitter and he said that if you want to know the temps for Jan simply look at the last 5 year mean which I believe, if memory serves me correctly, was cold beginning of every Jan most of the last 5 years then climbing up and up then a turn down. To avoid a Jan thaw would be almost inconcievable to most. I still see the basic concensus among most mets a warm up is coming by the second week in Jan., On a side note I see growing mentions that March may be cold . Of course following the concensus in our hobby can prove rather frustrating at the best of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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