Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The highest highs and lowest lows. The thing that makes it so dumb is we're grown adults addicted to snowstorms. It's not something I talk about with many people outside of my family. They get it and love it. Other folks....nasomuch...lol Gefs run is rock solid. As good as any I've seen (other than 0z last night) and way better than 6z. Lol. This panel is just about to put us in the comma head ccb snows. Boy you weren’t kidding! That is a sick GEFS run! Dang. Funny as well. My father and I are always into it. Wife could care less and half the public looks at me like I’m speaking Mandarin. At this point idc I will take having my backyard look like the Rockerfeller Ice Skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know you're being funny but our area got 10-20" from 2/06 Yeah it was pure sarcasm. Wouldn't give up on this pattern until 48hrs before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro pretty much exactly like the gefs mean. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Day 5 is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Impressive CAD on euro. Very cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro pretty much exactly like the gefs mean. Lol Then Matt should be in any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro 500mb height map at 144h looks a lot more like the 12z CMC than the 12z GFS. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Snowing 7am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The secondary is where the primary should be, and the coastal is the 3rd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Busy today but took a quick glance at gefs. Go figure after the worst op run they might be the snowiest gefs run yet this winter. Precip maps looked real nice. Next panel beyond what Chill shared, showed deform from the coastal.... Turbulence light has turned off. We will now commence serving cocktails.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 994 off the coast east of ocean city at 168...should be a good based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The secondary is where the primary should be, and the coastal is the 3rd low. That's a nice 50-50 low showing up. Much deeper than the previous few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Lock it up. Not the biggest solution but perfect transfer/progression for overrunning followed by ccb. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Then Matt should be in any moment. Solid hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Precip maps looked real nice. Next panel beyond what Chill shared, showed deform from the coastal.... Turbulence light has turned off. We will now commence serving cocktails.... Gefs had another big coastal signal day 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Phasing begins near h168. Looks a bit east, but at day 6 not bad. Like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6-8".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: 6-8".... Cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lock it up. Not the biggest solution but perfect transfer/progression for overrunning followed by ccb. Great run. It's close to something even bigger. Can't quite get all the energy to consolidate and phase in, but it's not far off. Still a general 4-8"/5-10" of cold powder. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Cold? Like a [fill in favorite line] Very close to a phased nuke too. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Cold? Plenty. Impressive CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Cold? yes..temps 20-22 for duration of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lock it up. Not the biggest solution but perfect transfer/progression for overrunning followed by ccb. Great run. Just missed something bigger. Upper levels lagged behind and got to the party late. Slightly more in sync and it would have been a big solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: It's close to something even bigger. Can't quite get all the energy to consolidate and phase in, but it's not far off. Still a general 4-8"/5-10" of cold powder. Sign me up. It was a junior version of 12z yesterday. Lots of upside with the progression. Zero temp worries. Backside would be high ratio. .5-.8 qpf for all. Would pile up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: yes..temps 20-22 for duration of storm Been awhile for one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Phasing begins near h168. Looks a bit east, but at day 6 not bad. Like the trend. Ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS remains the outlier both high and low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Been awhile for one of those Feb/Mar 2015 so not too far back. Time of year seals the deal. This would be around till the inevitable Jan thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is a nice run but so were a number of GEFS members. I think one of the GFS problems is how strong and round it makes the upper system over Canada and that suppress the wave. My gut feeling is that the GFS is wrong. Of course I could be totally wrong. Anyway, I'd certaintly lean to the GEFS mean and the Euro. The StormVista snow algorithm is pretty conservative compared to many others and it gives DC around 6 inches and puts me in 6-8. If the surface pattern were to evolve exactly as forecast with the big and cold surface ridge to our north and then were to develop the low long the coast like it is forecaster, I'd expect really strong frontogenesis to produce a nice banding feature somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Phasing begins near h168. Looks a bit east, but at day 6 not bad. Like the trend. 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's close to something even bigger. Can't quite get all the energy to consolidate and phase in, but it's not far off. Still a general 4-8"/5-10" of cold powder. Sign me up. 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Like a [fill in favorite line] Very close to a phased nuke too. Great run. 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just missed something bigger. Upper levels lagged behind and got to the party late. Slightly more in sync and it would have been a big solution. Glad to see we're all on the same page. Good run. Win in my book. Leaves the door open to something bigger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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