PDIII Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will say this....we can always fail but that long duration "downhill slope" in the upper levels shredding everything for days is suspect. I'm not buying into that progression. Cold and suppression probably isn't going to win like that. A pac shortwave hits every couple days. One or more will find a way for someone in the east. Great post. I agree wholeheartedly... We have to get lucky at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What did the Ukie show? Progressive? Squashed? Progressive http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Should have the 12z run at that link soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles are really struggling inside of 10 days right now. They seemingly support whatever the op shows. I expect the 12z gefs to be bad but that's only because the op was bad. I could see an easy fail with an inactive pattern and cold air. This is actually a fairly active pattern. Funny the GFS goes squash city after last nights EPS probably overamped so many storms with the cutter solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Funny the GFS goes squash city after last nights EPS probably overamped so many storms with the cutter solutions. We go through this cycle every freekin year and I think the same thing every freekin time.....why do I go this and what a stupid hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, usedtobe said: A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that. The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution. I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times. Well if anybody should know Canada it should be the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I stand corrected. Gefs looks great. Solid support for the TN valley to NC coast + overrunnng and coastal storm on Fri-Sat. Lol. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We go through this cycle every freekin year and I think the same thing every freekin time.....why do I go this and what a stupid hobby... There are a few rooms left over in Panic. Euro amped solutions at 0z. It’s not over just yet but you know that. The weenie solutions become reality in our minds and they are hard to walk back from don’t care how hardy we are..we are all weenies deep down or we wouldn’t be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We go through this cycle every freekin year and I think the same thing every freekin time.....why do I go this and what a stupid hobby... I feel the same way brother, although as you alluded to GEFS looks way better than the OP. We can only pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I stand corrected. Gefs looks great. Solid support for the TN valley to NC coast + overrunnng and coastal storm on Fri-Sat. Lol. Go figure. You serious Clark? It does look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I stand corrected. Gefs looks great. Solid support for the TN valley to NC coast + overrunnng and coastal storm on Fri-Sat. Lol. Go figure. Ninja’d .... 24 Hour precip panels look legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I feel the same way brother, although as you alluded to GEFS looks way better than the OP. We can only pray. The highest highs and lowest lows. The thing that makes it so dumb is we're grown adults addicted to snowstorms. It's not something I talk about with many people outside of my family. They get it and love it. Other folks....nasomuch...lol Gefs run is rock solid. As good as any I've seen (other than 0z last night) and way better than 6z. Lol. This panel is just about to put us in the comma head ccb snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The highest highs and lowest lows. The thing that makes it so dumb is we're grown adults addicted to snowstorms. It's not something I talk about with many people outside of my family. They get it and love it. Other folks....nasomuch...lol Gefs run is rock solid. As good as any I've seen (other than 0z last night) and way better than 6z. Lol. This panel is just about to put us in the comma head ccb snows. Amen, that would work ! We are going to do this !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Bob please tell me you've cleared your cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just looking at todays UKMET and the surface depiction is looking great at 144. Low pressures streaming up from the gulf into west VA with what looks to be the beginnings of a transfer over to off of roughly OBX. Wish I could see a 500 mb map. eta: actually this is 00Z? Thought it was supposed to be progressive? Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I stand corrected. Gefs looks great. Solid support for the TN valley to NC coast + overrunnng and coastal storm on Fri-Sat. Lol. Go figure. Given the gefs known issues with lack of spread when the op is an extreme outlier it's an even bigger red flag. Beyond that I'm not surprised at anything anymore. I'm more surprised that some throw around such definitive statements about potential storms when we have seen time and again how Mother Nature can pull a rug out at any moment. But I'm not discouraged by that. The thrill of the hunt is part of the fun. Just like sports it wouldn't be fun if we knew the outcome before the game is played. I get disappointed when the eagles lose but I'm still going to watch the next game And im not in the camp that trashes the models and screams chaos. The models can't get the details right from long range. And those details matter for ground truth. But we wouldn't even know there was a threat to possibly bust on in a week without them. People can tell us about wholly worms and the barometric pressure at some arbitrary station in Alaska but truth is very few if any could look at the current conditions globally and accurately predict 7-10 days from now without the computer guidance. So worrying about a day 5+ threat wouldn't even be a thing without them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just looking at todays UKMET and the surface depiction is looking great at 144. Low pressures streaming up from the gulf into west VA with what looks to be the beginnings of a transfer over to off of roughly OBX. Wish I could see a 500 mb map. That is 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ukie is trying to amplify the wave but looks like a miss south by hr144. Still way better solution than the gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: That is 0z Just noticed that. Thought the 00z was supposed to be a bad run but it looks good to me. Maybe the 500's are crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ukie is close. Not a big storm h5 look but close to a respectable event. Much better the the gfs. No doubt there. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z UKIE at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Given the gefs known issues with lack of spread when the op is an extreme outlier it's an even bigger red flag. I saw on another website that the GFS Op was the snowiest ensemble member at 0z and the least snowiest at 6z. Wouldn't be surprised if 12z was also the least snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I saw on another website that the GFS Op was the snowiest ensemble member at 0z and the least snowiest at 6z. Wouldn't be surprised if 12z was also the least snowy. Not the least snowiest because there are other blanks in the mix but there are a lot of ideal tracks. No west tracks at all. The ones that dump take a classic and good track. Eta: overall, the 12z gefs was pretty inspiring. If I never saw the op and just looked at the gefs I would be feeling pretty good about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I saw on another website that the GFS Op was the snowiest ensemble member at 0z and the least snowiest at 6z. Wouldn't be surprised if 12z was also the least snowy. Busy today but took a quick glance at gefs. Go figure after the worst op run they might be the snowiest gefs run yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We go through this cycle every freekin year and I think the same thing every freekin time.....why do I go this and what a stupid hobby... Like the clockwork precision of the swallows returning to Capistrano, we return to the models every 6 hours for some guidance. I’m pretty sure it’s a biological thing, just like with the swallows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Sorry if this is already posted... 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well that's all folks. This storm is not coming back. It's gone like 2/2006, 12/2010, and 10/2011, an 3/2017. Oh wait 12z euro is digging nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Well that's all folks. This storm is not coming back. It's gone like 2/2006, 12/2010, and 10/2011, an 3/2017. Oh wait 12z euro is digging nevermind. Some will be digging your grave with more posts like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Some will be digging your grave with more posts like that one. Euro is probably a hit based on the troff in the pacnw at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro is probably a hit based on the troff in the pacnw at 96. Ti me, looks more like yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Well that's all folks. This storm is not coming back. It's gone like 2/2006, 12/2010, and 10/2011, an 3/2017. Oh wait 12z euro is digging nevermind. I know you're being funny but our area got 10-20" from 2/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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