mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'll take the Cmc and be done with it. The he!! with the historic runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The run to run changes on the ops and the spread on the ens tells me about anything is still possible- from multiple smaller events, to more a of a all in one big ticket deal. Certainly looks like it should snow in the MA though. What I want to see on the ensembles is a clear trend to less low pressure driving to our west/NW, and a cleaner transition to a coastal south of our latitude. 12z EPS was close, but the 0z muddied things up some. The big storm idea that includes a full/partial phase of NS and SS energy, something like the GFS was showing at 0z, is more risky for at least half of this subforum. Too much of a good thing and a mix or rain enters the picture especially for the cities and SE. Long way to go but it will be fun tracking. Just started to look a little more in-depth into the EPS. I agree it did muddy up the waters somewhat. But I don't buy how it is being portrayed as what looks to be a low driving up into the lakes. Now it could be right or it very well could just be an off run. But I think actually something else is in play here and we are actually seeing the EPS evolve on the evolution of our possible storm. Have some thoughts on that, which would be a positive, but will keep them to myself for the time being. I will say though keep an eye on whether that low in the lakes starts shifting south along with a corresponding increase of lower pressures connecting to the developing coastal low. But as you said, this is some great tracking of which I haven't enjoyed in years. Will be interesting to see what the final outcome is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 You can see why the GEFS went from more focus on the 2ndary low off the coast at 0z to more and stronger members in the GLakes camp at 6. 0z has the PV really flexing and blocking the slp from moving easily into the GLakes which forces more coastal redevelopment. 6z says the PV doesnt dig as much and is slightly farther W. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What continues to bug me is that we have not seen the uber cold the models have advertised this year except for 1 glancing blow in November. I am apprehensive that the near record breaking stuff to our north verifies there or in our back yards. Hence, the west tracks and rainers remain viable options at this range despite operational runs. Of course, the reason the cold has not verified is likely due to the progressive flow, which would work in our favor to minimize western tracks. What a hobby. I honestly am happy to not see the deep cold verify as far south as it was. Initially the look was so suppressive I had fears that we would be in an icebox reading stories about how Charleston was enjoying record breaking snowfalls. How it is portrayed now is probably prime for our location. Just enough suppression from the cold to put us on the northern portion of any potential boundary with enough cushion that only over ampped systems would turn us to rainers but probably only after an extended period of WAA snows. I think the Mid-Atlantic is in the drivers seat and in the prime location at this time for what the models are displaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 42 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What continues to bug me is that we have not seen the uber cold the models have advertised this year except for 1 glancing blow in November. I am apprehensive that the near record breaking stuff to our north verifies there or in our back yards. Hence, the west tracks and rainers remain viable options at this range despite operational runs. Of course, the reason the cold has not verified is likely due to the progressive flow, which would work in our favor to minimize western tracks. What a hobby. while not looking to start the day as a downer...that is an important thing to consider. Its easy to get wrapped into epic model runs, and while confidence of a mod/high impact event is growing, that piece is a rather large key to this snow puzzle. hoping the 6z was just drinking bottom shelf hooch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just started to look a little more in-depth into the EPS. I agree it did muddy up the waters somewhat. But I don't buy how it is being portrayed as what looks to be a low driving up into the lakes. Now it could be right or it very well could just be an off run. But I think actually something else is in play here and we are actually seeing the EPS evolve on the evolution of our possible storm. Have some thoughts on that, which would be a positive, but will keep them to myself for the time being. I will say though keep an eye on whether that low in the lakes starts shifting south along with a corresponding increase of lower pressures connecting to the developing coastal low. But as you said, this is some great tracking of which I haven't enjoyed in years. Will be interesting to see what the final outcome is. The timing/location (and strength) of the PV lobes are largely going to dictate our storm outcome in this pattern. Yes there is some "blocking" but imo it's more of the bootleg variety, and it is not going to lock a vortex in the 50-50 position. Take a look at h5 and also the 850t anomalies on both the 0z and 12z EPS runs, valid for about 0z Friday through 0z Sunday, and you can clearly see the differences and how we could end up with a more suppressed event that stays underneath, to something further north and mixy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I honestly am happy to not see the deep cold verify as far south as it was. Initially the look was so suppressive I had fears that we would be in an icebox reading stories about how Charleston was enjoying record breaking snowfalls. How it is portrayed now is probably prime for our location. Just enough suppression from the cold to put us on the northern portion of any potential boundary with enough cushion that only over ampped systems would turn us to rainers but probably only after an extended period of WAA snows. I think the Mid-Atlantic is in the drivers seat and in the prime location at this time for what the models are displaying. Considering how the models have consistently overdone the cold at range, I want no parts of a trend for less cold as we head into our window beginning mid next week. I will gladly "risk" suppression with deep cold, because the odds of that happening are very low given what we have seen verify so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The timing/location (and strength) of the PV lobes are largely going to dictate our storm outcome in this pattern. Yes there is some "blocking" but imo it's more of the bootleg variety, and it is not going to lock a vortex in the 50-50 position. Take a look at h5 and also the 850t anomalies on both the 0z and 12z EPS runs, valid for about 0z Friday through 0z Sunday, and you can clearly see the differences and how we could end up with a more suppressed event that stays underneath, to something further north and mixy. Have been stressing over the last few days about what we want to see in the 50/50 with the pv configuration. That is pretty much what will dictate the features up stream (ridging, pv/trough running to the north and through the east) as well as our possible weekend storm. Elongated pv through that region with little to no backing of the flow and it hurts our chances with the coastal but probably increases our chances in regards to an overrunning event. But if we see that pv feature lobed out south and west we see much better backing of the flow where we see the ridge and trough respond in a favorable way for coastal development for our region. I think this may be the reason you are seeing two camps within the members. At this point I think the potential coastal has a higher impact storm potential then the overrunning but there is no denying the possibilities with all the moisture available for an over running event. At this point though I favor the mostly coastal solution and though it may seem counter intuitive from what it showed I think the overnight EPS actually was favoring that as well. I will wait a run or two to see if my thoughts in that regards has any merit or just wishful weenie thinking on my part though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Considering how the models have consistently overdone the cold at range, I want no parts of a trend for less cold as we head into our window beginning mid next week. I will gladly "risk" suppression with deep cold, because the odds of that happening are very low given what we have seen verify so far. Actually think that we will probably see that settle down somewhat. The over playing of the cold seemed to be an initial response to the pattern flip to this regime and hopefully nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 With GFS and Euro showing significant snows potentially, I am trying to learn about the different ways they are going about giving me snow. What is the earliest we will see which one is being set up to be more accurate? I guess what I am trying to ask is at what point do the models part ways to get to what we are seeing? Thanks in advance! I am really trying to learn this stuff and not clog the discussion with amateur questions but I am truly curious about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Between the ops runs and the ensembles we still have no idea what is going to happen. The eps are spitting out a wide range of outcomes at this point. That alone tells me that the ops runs are pretty much worthless. The one concern I am seeing this morning is the southern stream is not crazy active like it was even on yesterday' runs. At least all of the models are advertising a pattern that we can usually score in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looking at the overnight GEPS, the MSLP evolution looks similar to last night’s GEFS (not saying the 60H 2 foot epic storm) in that there’s a small camp that took the primary into the OH Valley but most have a transfer from TN to SC/NC. A pretty classic look for our area. A fun week ahead of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's never happened as far as I know and that in itself is a big flag. Not that it takes much explaining why a 60+ hour storm is unlikely. Pd2 was the longest duration I've seen and there was a lull between the overunning and coastal. Gfs had no lull whatsoever. Lol. Don't remember the duration of Pd2 specifically but it was close to 48 hours I think. 51 hours in Clarksburg with no zero precip lull and no mixing. There was a 3-4 hour period of light snow at transfer time. Just south in Gaithersburg, there was a lull for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6z GFS was definitely a cautionary tale as to how this could go wrong. If the initial wave is too weak the overrunning is weaker and further south, then the PV overpowers everything, to the benefit of not many. I don’t like how it agrees with the 0z Euro on that first wave and I hope this doesn’t become a trend. The overrunning was a sure fire way everyone at least saw some snow. Take that out then we are basically hoping for a northern stream wave to dig enough to get the mid Atlantic in play. And we all know how hard that can be at this latitude. These are the things I’ll be looking for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 What's pretty cool is, models had started to show an Aleutian ridge developing after New Years and general strengthening of the Greenland vortex. Between 6z and 18z yesterday, this idea did a 180 on models, with a troughy N Pacific. With Stratospheric winds expected to weaken in the next few days, it looks likely that this pattern evolves into negative NAO in January. So, -EPO now... +PNA after the storm chance... evolves into -NAO early to mid January. The storm today is much wetter, and models are wet through how far they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 stop attacking me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: 6z GFS was definitely a cautionary tale as to how this could go wrong. If the initial wave is too weak the overrunning is weaker and further south, then the PV overpowers everything, to the benefit of not many. I don’t like how it agrees with the 0z Euro on that first wave and I hope this doesn’t become a trend. The overrunning was a sure fire way everyone at least saw some snow. Take that out then we are basically hoping for a northern stream wave to dig enough to get the mid Atlantic in play. And we all know how hard that can be at this latitude. These are the things I’ll be looking for today. Very interesting , If I may ask a question, if this does not become the trend today are we out of the woods ? When do you expect the Euro and the EPS to latch onto the most likely scenario? This weekend or early next week? It seems once a certain trend takes place close to the short range with the Euro it normally does not reverse course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z kicking off...put on the tracking gear. I'm nervous but ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: I actually thought the op Euro looked better then 12z overall thru 144 and that's medium range not la la land. Looking forward to today's runs It did but that's deceiving. The 12z run totally squashed the lead vort which is the one the gfs was developing. But by doing that it left enough energy behind to amp up the next vort and bomb out. 0z looks better initially because it develops that lead wave some but it's running into a brick wall and can't do much for us but it then leaves nothing behind to develop what was the uber storm on the 12z run. The possible flaw I see in the 28-30 setup is timing. That initial wave on the 28th might be coming out too soon. Its way ahead of the upper level trough so it could very easily get suppressed under us. But it could develop just enough to not allow anything behind it to get going when the upper energy approaches. Then we get a wave to our south and eventually something bombs way to our northeast and we're left with some breeze and cold. The earlier gfs runs worked because they were pushing the cold boundary north more then riding weak waves along it with a long fetch of waa snows then eventually the upper energy caught up and a consolidated low formed. But if that initial wave is squashed south then when the upper energy gets here its way off to our east we're screwed. Im not sure if any solution right now. I can see how it goes wrong. But the models are notorious at having issues with this kind of thing at this range. Not being able to figure out which vort to key on. My gut looking at the setup is anything on the 27/28 will struggle. The flow is too suppressive. So our best bet is the second vort to amplify on the 29th and the initial wave not to interfere in that. Other then that last nights ensemble runs were still very snowy. But they took a step back from focusing on one threat to being more of a shotgun spray with lots of hits scattered all over the next 15 days. I still think it would take some really bad luck to escape the next 2 weeks without a decent snow but the picture got a little less focused last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 49 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: 6z GFS was definitely a cautionary tale as to how this could go wrong. If the initial wave is too weak the overrunning is weaker and further south, then the PV overpowers everything, to the benefit of not many. I don’t like how it agrees with the 0z Euro on that first wave and I hope this doesn’t become a trend. The overrunning was a sure fire way everyone at least saw some snow. Take that out then we are basically hoping for a northern stream wave to dig enough to get the mid Atlantic in play. And we all know how hard that can be at this latitude. These are the things I’ll be looking for today. You ninjad me. I while ago I said be careful what you wish for when everyone was rooting this south. I noticed that on both ensembles the snowiest solutions were with a west track low a bit north of where we typically want. We thumped then got some mix. Big that most of the southern solutions failed to turn the corner and give is much. That we might be better off with a messy storm then needing it to turn up the coast after passing south. That didn't seem to be a viable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 looks more surpressed at 96 than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Now it's looking squashed. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: looks more surpressed at 96 than 6z There is no way the lead wave is going to do anything. Only chance this has to end well is a 12z yesterday euro type solution where something develops with the next vort around the 29/30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 17 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Arrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Now it's looking squashed. Lol Moisture starved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 This is not a good run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The next s/w is the one to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is no way the lead wave is going to do anything. Only chance this has to end well is a 12z yesterday euro type solution where something develops with the next vort around the 29/30th. I didn't look at all the euro panels last night, but I could see this coming around to that ending. Could be very wrong. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 One run of the GFS and people are jumping. Evidently some have not followed the weather much this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 126hrsn I don't see a short wave out west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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