Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

Just now, poolz1 said:

Somehow we still get smoked...it just wants to snow sometime late week..

Pattern pattern pattern. 

[yoda]

So Euro smokes us day 9 and day 10?

[Amped]

ECMWF is more amped up than the GFS in the pacific @72hrs.   By 96hrs it's less amped.  Can't tell exactly what the heck is happening in between.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern pattern pattern. 

What we really need to work on is back to back big ones. Gfs was great but in reality...I think a Jan 87 redux would finalize a successful winter with 8 weeks left have fun and not care. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

So Euro smokes us day 9 and day 10?

Looks pretty good day 9. Better south of D.C. On both. This is DTs dream run. Richmond gets smoked by both. But the day 9 storm gets good snow into D.C.  

Using 10-1 its 8" Richmond, 6" D.C.  5" up to the pa border. 

Kuchara is better. 6-10" across the whole area. Very cold storm. 

[Cobalt]

Somehow still gives us 16" through d10. This pattern ain't no joke

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks pretty good day 9. Better south of D.C. On both. This is DTs dream run. Richmond gets smoked by both. But the day 9 storm gets good snow into D.C.  

Using 10-1 its 8" Richmond, 6" D.C.  5" up to the pa border. 

Kuchara is better. 6-10" across the whole area. Very cold storm. 

It's a 2 event run even a weak wave 1. It was close enough. Can't ignore wave 3 dropping into Seattle d10. Lol

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What we really need to work on is back to back big ones. Gfs was great but in reality...I think a Jan 87 redux would finalize a successful winter with 8 weeks left have fun and not care. 

When we're disappointed by a euro run that shows 16" in D.C. between 2 storms over 10 days we know we're in a loaded pattern. I could see both hitting. Could also see both missing although I would put the odds of two hits above two misses right now. 

[Cobalt]

2 runs in a row show 16" of snow for DC through hour 240. Now that's consistency 

[BristowWx]

38 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

2 runs in a row show 16" of snow for DC through hour 240. Now that's consistency 

Would really prefer the 60 hr deal.  The Euro evolution scares me.  Still more than a few runs to go.

[smokeybandit]

GFS back to its bi-polar ways.  From 20+ inches at 0z to 2-4" at 6z

[ErinInTheSky]

GFS bails on any sig snow.

[showmethesnow]

Just a quick thought on the overnight GFS op run though I am probably over thinking it for a 5+ day storm.

Though you can't argue with the results (2'-2 1/2' region wide, would take that in a heart beat) we were probably just a razors edge from reaching BEC (Biblical East Coast storm) status. Just an minor  adjustment in just one of several different areas and this storm would be one talked about for generations to come.

1) We saw a sloppy phase of the mid latitude jet and the tropical early in the process. And a sloppy partial phase of that resulting jet and the jet rotating around the pv just a little to late to be more then a minor benefit for our region as the storm is already in the process of leaving our region.

2) A trough dropping down through the east that did not go negative tilt as quickly as we would like to see. Would also like to see that trough drop just a little bit deeper.

3) A capture of the low by the trough too late to be of much benefit for our region.

4) The 50/50 region that was just lacking where the backing of the flow was just coming up a little short.

Though you can't argue with the setup whatsoever the whole overall evolution looked sloppy. To be honest I was somewhat astounded to see the results. 

Now just a minor adjustment, for the positive, in just any one of these areas and most if not all the others would respond and fall into place.

What would the result probably look like? Probably a coastal tucked into the coast a little closer. Getting captured up off the Northern Delaware/southern Jersey shores and pulled into the coast. A rapid intensification as the low would probably stack. This would probably keep our region under heavy snow for a much longer duration as the low would be slow to pull out. Add in a bombing low just to our NE and fairly strong building high pressure to our west and we would most likely be looking at blizzard conditions throughout the region. Now add those winds with what would probably be 3+ feet of snow at that point and I can't even imagine the drifts we would be talking about.

Now keep in mind, this is just analyzing one run of a fantasy storm at 5+ days no less. WE could/probably see different solutions in the coming days as the GFS starts to key on different energy. So keep this all in perspective. 

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

GFS bails on any sig snow.

The setup in the 50/50 region is crappy compared to the 00Z.  Not seeing the backing of the flow and the corresponding ridging that we need to see. 

[ErinInTheSky]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The setup in the 50/50 region is crappy compared to the 00Z.  Not seeing the backing of the flow and the corresponding ridging that we need to see. 

Yeah. Overnight Euro run wasn’t great either - it’s good in that we got a day 9 bomb but at this point we are pushing things back to day 9-10 for the third time in a row (28th, then 30th, now with these runs we’re looking at a New Years storm). I hope the 12z models come back to shorter range.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah. Overnight Euro run wasn’t great either - it’s good in that we got a day 9 bomb but at this point we are pushing things back to day 9-10 for the third time in a row (28th, then 30th, now with these runs we’re looking at a New Years storm). I hope the 12z models come back to shorter range.

None of the threats is gone. Any one of them could become significant inside 100 hours. Most of our snow in 2014 wasn't apparent from 5 days out. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

None of the threats is gone. Any one of them could become significant inside 100 hours. Most of our snow in 2014 wasn't apparent from 5 days out. 

Oh yeah. I love the setup for sure, and think we can produce quickly with it. I really want to see this materialize!

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah. Overnight Euro run wasn’t great either - it’s good in that we got a day 9 bomb but at this point we are pushing things back to day 9-10 for the third time in a row (28th, then 30th, now with these runs we’re looking at a New Years storm). I hope the 12z models come back to shorter range.

Wouldn't worry about the op runs that much. The ensembles are where you need to keep an eye on and for the most part they are still keying on the weekend (just a quick and dirty look at this time so maybe I am wrong). Think the issue with the ops right this second are that I think what may be setting up is a one/two punch. Storm over the weekend and a follow up 2/3 days later. Think the ops may be having issues on how to handle that.

[BristowWx]

6z is the hangover run.  We hit it hard 18z-0z.  Some of the best ever.  As we were discussing this last night/early morning I never had the sense the set-up was razors edge all or nothing.  But we are close enough that one can't completely dismiss an op run as another viable outcome.  This one was certainly worst case I would think.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just off quick glance at 24 hour precip panels, 6z GEFS is defintley drier.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, BristowWx said:

6z is the hangover run.  We hit it hard 18z-0z.  Some of the best ever.  As we were discussing this last night/early morning I never had the sense the set-up was razors edge all or nothing.  But we are close enough that one can't completely dismiss an op run as another viable outcome.  This one was certainly worst case I would think.

I sometimes mention that the overall pattern argues/wants a storm. This is a perfect case. Go back over the last couple/3 days worth of runs and you will see what I mean. Many/most of the runs end up with a coastal low. But look at the 500's leading into the storm and compare them to each other. Many/most differ and some quite drastically. And yet most still end up with a storm in roughly the same location each time.

At this point IMO, the odds are very high that we see at the very least a moderate event over next weekend though I am leaning more towards a somewhat high impact storm.

[CAPE]

Not a huge fan of the 0z EPS. Fair amount of low pressure to our NW near the GLs, with what looks like a late transfer to a coastal. Looking at the members, about 12 leave our area high and dry, with the more significant precip/snow to our north/northwest and also east/northeast. Still plenty to be resolved on this/these events for the 6-10 day period.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I sometimes mention that the overall pattern argues/wants a storm. This is a perfect case. Go back over the last couple/3 days worth of runs and you will see what I mean. Many/most of the runs end up with a coastal low. But look at the 500's leading into the storm and compare them to each other. Many/most differ and some quite drastically. And yet most still end up with a storm in roughly the same location each time.

At this point IMO, the odds are very high that we see at the very least a moderate event over next weekend though I am leaning more towards a somewhat high impact storm.

So in your opinion, you see the 0z Euro and 6z GFS as a blip? 

[psuhoffman]

Odd gefs run. There is a camp that's suppressed.  Then there is an equal if not larger camp that has a NW track into the lakes and rain. Only a few members are a flush hit. Most are either southeast or northwest of where we want. 

Gefs still has numerous threats scattered around days 9-15 but for the day 6-7 threat it was a bad run. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

So in your opinion, you see the 0z Euro and 6z GFS as a blip? 

At this point I weight the ops very low and put more emphasis on the ensembles. And the ensembles are having a rough enough time as it is. Could the ops be right? Sure. But I wouldn't sweat them because the odds are probably very low that they verify. We have a very dynamic setup at this time with so much energy flying everywhere and to expect the ensembles, let alone the ops to get those finer features nailed down is asking a lot of them. All I can say is look at the big picture and the general overall features and flow. This is a big storm setup in my mind. Can we Fail? Absolutely. But I think odds are better then 50/50 at this time that we see at the very least a somewhat significant storm. 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I sometimes mention that the overall pattern argues/wants a storm. This is a perfect case. Go back over the last couple/3 days worth of runs and you will see what I mean. Many/most of the runs end up with a coastal low. But look at the 500's leading into the storm and compare them to each other. Many/most differ and some quite drastically. And yet most still end up with a storm in roughly the same location each time.

At this point IMO, the odds are very high that we see at the very least a moderate event over next weekend though I am leaning more towards a somewhat high impact storm.

The run to run changes on the ops and the spread on the ens tells me about anything is still possible- from multiple smaller events, to more of an all in one big ticket deal. Certainly looks like it should snow in the MA though. What I want to see on the ensembles is a clear trend to less low pressure driving to our west/NW, and a cleaner transition to a coastal south of our latitude. 12z EPS was close, but the 0z muddied things up some. The big storm idea that includes a full/partial phase of NS and SS energy, something like the GFS was showing at 0z, is more risky for at least half of this subforum. Too much of a good thing and a mix or rain enters the picture especially for the cities and SE. Long way to go but it will be fun tracking.

[mitchnick]

What continues to bug me is that we have not seen the uber cold the models have advertised this year except for 1 glancing blow in November. I am apprehensive that the near record breaking stuff to our north verifies there or in our back yards. Hence,  the west tracks and rainers remain viable options at this range despite operational runs. Of course,  the reason the cold has not verified is likely due to the progressive flow,  which would work in our favor to minimize western tracks. What a hobby.

[BristowWx]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

good read from WPC.  Nutshell is no one should celebrating or jumping yet.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Odd gefs run. There is a camp that's suppressed.  Then there is an equal if not larger camp that has a NW track into the lakes and rain. Only a few members are a flush hit. Most are either southeast or northwest of where we want. 

Gefs still has numerous threats scattered around days 9-15 but for the day 6-7 threat it was a bad run. 

Yeah and I thought the 0z EPS looked somewhat like that too. More members to consider obviously, but one thing that caught my eye was the chunk that had our region betwixt and between. Those had quite a bit of snow north, and also east over the fish lol.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

good read from WPC.  Nutshell is no one should celebrating or jumping yet.

Yes that nicely captures what us weather geeks have been seeing in the guidance from one cycle to the next. Chaotic. I wont worry until we see a trend towards no snow, or more rainy solutions. At this juncture, the models keep showing us all the possible ways it can snow in the MA with the advertised pattern. Lets hope that holds and we can hone in on the details of how going forward.