Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I'm not at home currently, but I'll post a pic as soon as I get home


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Great. And by the way, it's 8pm....do you know where your parents are?   

j/k.  

[SnowLover22]

Great. And by the way, it's 8pm....do you know where your parents are?   
j/k.  

.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

.

Thanks much. 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Snowmaps are very uncomplicated. They started off with a stupid simple algorithm that just turned every .1 of qpf into 1" of snow if the surface wasn't roasting and 850s are below freezing. That's it. They are better now than a few years ago with Kuchera and backing out sleet and stuff like that but still inherently flawed.

I wish we could go back to using soundings, midlevel panels, qpf panels, snow growth conditions, antecedent conditions etc and discussing how much snow could potentially fall and actually accumulate. Those were my favorite discussions. You had to actually look for warm noses, dissect surface temps, and take antecedent surface conditions into account. Matt and I used to do it with every storm. We would paint a picture how it would evolve and what the experience would be like. Now people just post pretty colors and say "omg snow!". Lol. Warm nose? Above freezing for 24 hours before? Crappy snow growth? Light rates during the day? Nah, that stuff doesn't matter....

I always look at qpf output and how fast it falls and then start considering mixing and all that good stuff and come up with my own potential. 

 

Thanks Bob.

Some years back when reading disco’s like you reference, I started to learn how to understand skew T’s, but to my knowledge, you have to view at every interval to see how the soundings change in any given local.  Guess that why the lazy weenie in me asked the question. They really did help me to better understand the diff levels and to your point, help to figure out what might be going in at any given time.  Still lots to learn, but fun. 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks much. 

Here is the 12z EPS for comparison. Yes it actually can snow over the bay apparently. lol.

[mitchnick]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Here is the 12z EPS for comparison. Yes it actually can snow over the bay apparently. lol.

Yep. And if you look closely,  it almost looks enhanced over it.

[Sparky]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

even feb 87 had that sunday night event that basically was one of the heaviest snowfalls in a short period time that i've seen around here.  was pretty young, but those flakes were enormous and could be seen even at night.  i vaguely remember jan 87, but do remember my parents having to use the snow blower and vague talk about a minor and major storm.  those were the days of dialing that 936 number to get the forecasts lol.

yep feb 87 is right up there with feb 79 as some of the heaviest snow rates I've ever encountered.

[Sparky]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The second storm on the 25th was awesome here. I think the first one was about 8", but the Superbowl Sun-Mon storm was a top 10 for me. 16-18" of wind driven cold smoke. I recall the initial forecast for 6-10 that morning. Was a really nice over-performer, and much more so a blizzard than the Jan 2016 event(which I would not put in my top 10).

Didn't realize you've been living on the shore that long.

[mitchnick]

Both of those 1/87 storms are on the nesis list with snowfall pic. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

[Cobalt]

Great. And by the way, it's 8pm....do you know where your parents are?   
j/k.  

Don't worry, I'm with my parents


.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Sparky said:

Didn't realize you've been living on the shore that long.

Crazy but true. That was my first winter here. Having moved from Carroll county I was expecting a lot less snow, but it was pretty snowy that winter. In general its much more variable here, but my location, in the interior(not close to either bay) and pretty far north on the shore, doesn't do too bad at all.

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Sparky said:

yep feb 87 is right up there with feb 79 as some of the heaviest snow rates I've ever encountered.

yep, it was a steroid version of jan '11 and on par with jan '00 on the surprise factor.  only a couple inches was expected that day and about a foot+ fell in like 6 hours.

[stormy]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks much. 

Dreamland at this 168 minus. If consensus by minus 72, confidence. Honestly, The N.A.F. is too progressive and the L.P. over Superior is a convoluted opposite of historical climo.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Both of those 1/87 storms are on the nesis list with snowfall pic. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

Nice snow maps on this site for all of the MA, even though its NJ centric. Has the '87 storms and much more. Anyone wanting to reminisce, this is a good one.

http://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/

[Prestige Worldwide]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The second storm on the 25th was awesome here. I think the first one was about 8", but the Superbowl Sun-Mon storm was a top 10 for me. 16-18" of wind driven cold smoke. I recall the initial forecast for 6-10 that morning. Was a really nice over-performer, and much more so a blizzard than the Jan 2016 event(which I would not put in my top 10).

That Super Bowl storm was great. I remember watching the broncos/giants and flipping back and forth to that great new channel- the weather channel. It was sweet 

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

These 87 stories are really taking me back.  Can't believe it's been 30 years.

I was living in Silver Spring in Jan '87 and working at a gas station in Colesville.  12" followed 3 days later by 16" with blowing and drifting.

The Thursday storm was a heavy wet snow and I basically spent the whole workday shoveling and trying to keep the lot open.  Was back at work for the Sunday storm, which was a lot colder and windier.  That one caused the pump nozzles to keep freezing from the wind-whipped powder and we were dipping them in warm rubbing alcohol that we were heating in coffee decanters to thaw them out.  Fun times !

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

That Super Bowl storm was great. I remember watching the broncos/giants and flipping back and forth to that great new channel- the weather channel. It was sweet 

Yeah fun times. Although I was a bit of a Broncos fan at the time(after the colts left) so the game was a bit depressing. Awesome storm made up for it though.

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice snow maps on this site for all of the MA, even though its NJ centric. Has the '87 storms and much more. Anyone wanting to reminisce, this is a good one.

http://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/

1-8-96  30 inches in Staunton. Has snowed for 50 hrs..  Va. under state of emergency 

[WxUSAF]

 

[Bob Chill]

I remember Feb 87 well. Snowed so hard that I could barely see the house across the street. Unless I'm confusing with another storm I'm pretty sure there was thunder and lightening. I'd be good with a Feb 87 redux after we finish shoveling the Jan 87 redux. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, wkd said:

And after all that, it's hard to know where banding is going to set up, which can make a huge difference iin snow amounts.

(In response to Bob's post)

Yes, absolutely. Local climo is another big thing that models don't do well with. The event earlier this month is just one example of many times when the northern tier wins the accum battle. Models never once showed them jackpotting but sure as the sunrise, they jackpotted. 

Coastal and ORH from the SNE sub gave us a lesson in looking at the frontogenesis panels back in March 2013. Of course that event was a devastating bust but the lesson was great. Those panels help understand banding potential and thundersnow potential. 

My absolute favorite setups are when closed upper level lows pass just to the south or overhead. The instability associated with closed ULLs is impossible for models to get the qpf spread right. Ratios and rates can be incredible but relatively localized. Fun stuff. 

[wxdude64]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I remember Feb 87 well. Snowed so hard that I could barely see the house across the street. Unless I'm confusing with another storm I'm pretty sure there was thunder and lightening. I'd be good with a Feb 87 redux after we finish shoveling the Jan 87 redux. 

 A complete repeat of 87 would suit me fine. Had 31.5 in Jan, then another 19 in Feb, then had 6.5 fall first week of April to finish the season off properly...was a great winter. We can just move everything up a month this year.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I remember Feb 87 well. Snowed so hard that I could barely see the house across the street. Unless I'm confusing with another storm I'm pretty sure there was thunder and lightening. I'd be good with a Feb 87 redux after we finish shoveling the Jan 87 redux. 

That literally should have been rain here. It was 50 during the day, but with low dews the temps rapidly fell to 32 with heavy snow by late evening. Was a heavy wet snow paste bomb here. A foot of snow fell imby, but it rained just south of Denton. Probably the biggest difference in snowfall I can recall between my house and places like Easton, where it was mostly rain with about 3-4" at the end.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, absolutely. Local climo is another big thing that models don't do well with. The event earlier this month is just one example of many times when the northern tier wins the accum battle. Models never once showed them jackpotting but sure as the sunrise, they jackpotted. 

Coastal and ORH from the SNE sub gave us a lesson in looking at the frontogenesis panels back in March 2013. Of course that event was a devastating bust but the lesson was great. Those panels help understand banding potential and thundersnow potential. 

My absolute favorite setups are when closed upper level lows pass just to the south or overhead. The instability associated with closed ULLs is impossible for models to get the qpf spread right. Ratios and rates can be incredible but relatively localized. Fun stuff. 

Jan. 26, 1987. 14 inches of snow with 8 ft. drifts. Minus 18 F. 6 am Jan. 27, 1987

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Interstate said:

20 degrees in Baltimore and OC is pushing 50

Huge red flag for sleet or flip to rain for I-95.

[Bob Chill]

You know there's some pretty sick potential coming up when both the gefs and eps mean snow panels show 4" in GA and the first event is still 6+ days away. Lol. Another thing I don't think I've ever seen.

Models are locking in on some very impressive cold temps and snow for long range. If we get a foot+ of snow and have lows below zero at some point over the next 2 weeks then I don't really care what happens the rest of winter. 

[HighStakes]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

You know there's some pretty sick potential coming up when both the gefs and eps mean snow panels show 4" in GA and the first event is still 6+ days away. Lol. Another thing I don't think I've ever seen.

Models are locking in on some very impressive cold temps and snow for long range. If we get a foot+ of snow and have lows below zero at some point over the next 2 weeks then I don't really care what happens the rest of winter. 

Yes, I agree. I'll take a tremendous 2-3 week period anytime and glady deal with whatever follows. We really have a big shot at something great.

[nj2va]

Snippet from LWX’s latest discussion about the threat(s):

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Windy but otherwise dry and chilly weather expected Christmas
Day as rapidly strengthening low pressure moves away to the
northeast. There may be some lingering upslope snow showers
along the Allegheny Front early. Otherwise, high pressure will
be building in, with below normal temps but dry weather Monday
night through Wednesday night. By Thursday, things get much more
interesting. Guidance is depicting a coastal low developing off
the Carolina coast as a shortwave dives southeast around the
longwave trough which will be sitting over the Great Lakes. This
low then rapidly strengthens as it heads northeast off the
coast. This is still WAY out there in time and there remains a
lot of potential for change...indeed, latest guidance has
shifted south with the low...but at this point such a shift
should not be taken as a reduction in threat. A lot can still
happen with this system, but with a strong arctic high pressure
expected to be over eastern Canada and ridging over the western
Atlantic, potential for a coastal low pressure and snow storm is
elevated. We will be watching this closely over the coming
days.

[PhineasC]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Huge red flag for sleet or flip to rain for I-95.

I don't think that's the case.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

CPC needs some new map makers