Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Same thing crossed my mind...

On the flip side, we have a textbook hemispheric MA snow pattern leading in. It really has everything you look for around these parts. I can't really think of a phased inland runner with a west based block but I'm getting old and my memory sucks. Lol.

Going strictly off of mid range pattern recognition we should get a mostly clean snow event.  Some mix is surely possible. Especially east of the fall line. That's climo even in the best setups and phased storms usually wrap in some midlevel problems during the transition from waa to ccb. But an inland runner with a west based block, 50/50, and confluence to the north shouldn't be a big concern regardless of what the gfs was showing.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it until I get sleeted and then rained on. 

 

i just want to see something fall from the sky lol. We have been so dry since the summer time. 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I had a feeling the GEFS was going to go back to showing two camps of WV and more southern transfer considering the OP moved off its 12z solution (and more like previous runs aka 6z). PSU is definitely right in that it seems the GEFS follows the OP by saying “oh yeah, what he said!”

Looping the precip and low location panels definitely definitely seems to favor the op for our area and not pushing a primary  NW of our latitude. It's an excellent ens run but the gefs and lack of spread always makes me wary. Glad to see it regardless.... fun times

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looping the precip and low location panels definitely definitely seems to favor the op for our area and not pushing a primary  NW of our latitude. It's an excellent ens run but the gefs and lack of spread always makes me wary. Glad to see it regardless.... fun times

i know some people were throwing out some 95-96 analogs this season. In 95-96, seems like we had colder temps than normal but not much to show for it in Nov and Dec(snowfall was decent but not amazing)..and then a monster came in early January

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looping the precip and low location panels definitely definitely seems to favor the op for our area and not pushing a primary  NW of our latitude. It's an excellent ens run but the gefs and lack of spread always makes me wary. Glad to see it regardless.... fun times

Yup, if you loop the 24H accumulated precip map you can see the heaviest precip axis jump from TN off the coast which tells me they favor a more southern transfer.  If it favored a WV transfer, I’d expect that heaviest precip axis to continue north from TN.

[Bob Chill]

Oh man, what a weenie run the 18z gefs just spit out. Next week is basically just round 1. Lol. Maybe we do a Jan 87 redux. 

The thing I like about the run is that the snowmaps are probably more legit instead of flawed crap storm that should be rain show up as snow. There's a lot of juiced legit snow setups showing up across the members. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh man, what a weenie run the 18z gefs just spit out. Next week is basically just round 1. Lol. Maybe we do a Jan 87 redux. 

The thing I like about the run is that the snowmaps are probably more legit instead of flawed crap storm that should be rain show up as snow. There's a lot of juiced legit snow setups showing up across the members. 

Can’t tease the snowfall maps and then not show  

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh man, what a weenie run the 18z gefs just spit out. Next week is basically just round 1. Lol. Maybe we do a Jan 87 redux. 

The thing I like about the run is that the snowmaps are probably more legit instead of flawed crap storm that should be rain show up as snow. There's a lot of juiced legit snow setups showing up across the members. 

The best 2 week stretch of winter weather in my lifetime.  

[Cobalt]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Can’t tease the snowfall maps and then not show  

I'll show through hr 240, and then 384 for the extra snow weenies. It's not set in stone, but it isn't just one fantasy op run

And finally, hr 384

This is posted by popular demand though. Not trying to cause trouble

 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The best 2 week stretch of winter weather in my lifetime.  

I wasn't alive back then. What happened during Jan 1987? 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know some people were throwing out some 95-96 analogs this season. In 95-96, seems like we had colder temps than normal but not much to show for it in Nov and Dec(snowfall was decent but not amazing)..and then a monster came in early January

Each year is as unique as a fingerprint right? We've been doing this a long time (you much longer you sick bastard) and I would rate the potential coming up about as close to a 10 as you can get. Every ingredient is coming into focus and it looks repetitive for at least a week so we should be offered more than one opportunity. 

We can always fail during any pattern so a perfect 10 isn't possible but I'm not sure how much better it can get....abundant very cold air...blocking...prime time climo...juiced stj...active pac flow with shortwaves hitting the west coast every couple days....other than everything, what can possibly go wrong?

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, Cobalt said:

I wasn't alive back then. What happened during Jan 1987? 

Out here, there was 12" storm followed by ice-box and then another 15" storm 4 or 5 days later, followed by ice box.  Warren Co. schools were closed for 2 straight weeks.  It was just amazing to keep so much snow-cover for so long.

[wxdude64]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh man, what a weenie run the 18z gefs just spit out. Next week is basically just round 1. Lol. Maybe we do a Jan 87 redux. 

The thing I like about the run is that the snowmaps are probably more legit instead of flawed crap storm that should be rain show up as snow. There's a lot of juiced legit snow setups showing up across the members. 

Oh the horrors!!!! LOL But I think I'd survive.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Each year is as unique as a fingerprint right? We've been doing this a long time (you much longer you sick bastard) and I would rate the potential coming up about as close to a 10 as you can get. Every ingredient is coming into focus and it looks repetitive for at least a week so we should be offered more than one opportunity. 

We can always fail during any pattern so a perfect 10 isn't possible but I'm not sure how much better it can get....abundant very cold air...blocking...prime time climo...juiced stj...active pac flow with shortwaves hitting the west coast every couple days....other than everything, what can possibly go wrong?

The only thing would be if the transfer is so muddled that we dry slot in the process.  Or if the new low is too east to be effective for us.  I mean every pattern has some Achilles heel.  But yes a solid 9 pattern as modeled.  

[poolz1]

Remember that winter clearly....cant remember the temps we had during that period?  After the blizzard of 2016 and the winter of 09/10 I have seen my fair share of big snows.  What interests me about the upcoming period is the temps and potential wind.  I would forego 3' and be happy with 10-15" if we could get historic temps with blowing and drifting for a few days..

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The best 2 week stretch of winter weather in my lifetime.  

The cold was what made it so awesome. Back to back big events and bitter cold. I remember snow on the main roads for what seemed like forever. Feb 10 was the best back to back events I've ever seen. Prob won't happen again in my lifetime. But Jan 87 had more winter appeal by a good margin. When I think of the epitome of deep winter in these parts, Jan 87 is numero uno.

[Casualbrain]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I wasn't alive back then. What happened during Jan 1987? 

Cool summary here https://blogs.weta.org/boundarystones/2014/11/13/1987-blizzard-discontent

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out here, there was 12" storm followed by ice-box and then another 15" storm 4 or 5 days later, followed by ice box.  Warren Co. schools were closed for 2 straight weeks.  It was just amazing to keep so much snow-cover for so long.

Ditto, a 12 followed 3 days later by a 16, then below zero.......great period.

[EastCoast NPZ]

These 87 stories are really taking me back.  Can't believe it's been 30 years.

[clskinsfan]

LOL. The 18Z GFS is the king of weenie runs. Coastal after coastal.

[Cobalt]

9/9 of the past GFS runs have shown at least 1" of snow in DC through D10. Decent signal from the Op run

[pasnownut]

So....for those that are in the know, in a colder pattern with potentially less opp for mixing issues, is that a time when you would lend anymore credibility to the snow maps?  (Say Storm 2 as currently modeled). 

I know the algorithm struggles with rain,sleet,maybe even rimming of dendrites,etc but with a “clean” storm wouldn’t that help?  I continue to learn lots but this has crossed my mind and I wanna know what y’all think? 

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh man, what a weenie run the 18z gefs just spit out. Next week is basically just round 1. Lol. Maybe we do a Jan 87 redux. 

The thing I like about the run is that the snowmaps are probably more legit instead of flawed crap storm that should be rain show up as snow. There's a lot of juiced legit snow setups showing up across the members. 

There was another Nina analog in the 60s that had a crazy 10 day period in January with multiple events and cold. Glacier building period basically. Most ninas are crap. But there have been a few great outliers. Maybe we lucked out this year. It is an east based nina that put us in the game. Then the sst pattern in the rest of the pacific decided to trend more favorable also. Now we're staring at some big potential. With some luck by Jan 10 were satisfied and the rest of winter is just gravy. Wouldn't that be nice for a change instead of obsessing over day 15 pattern change ghosts. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

So....for those that are in the know, in a colder pattern with potentially less opp for mixing issues, is that a time when you would lend anymore credibility to the snow maps?  (Say Storm 2 as currently modeled). 

I know the algorithm struggles with rain,sleet,maybe even rimming of dendrites,etc but with a “clean” storm wouldn’t that help?  I continue to learn lots but this has crossed my mind and I wanna know what y’all think? 

 

Snowmaps are very uncomplicated. They started off with a stupid simple algorithm that just turned every .1 of qpf into 1" of snow if the surface wasn't roasting and 850s are below freezing. That's it. They are better now than a few years ago with Kuchera and backing out sleet and stuff like that but still inherently flawed.

I wish we could go back to using soundings, midlevel panels, qpf panels, snow growth conditions, antecedent conditions etc and discussing how much snow could potentially fall and actually accumulate. Those were my favorite discussions. You had to actually look for warm noses, dissect surface temps, and take antecedent surface conditions into account. Matt and I used to do it with every storm. We would paint a picture how it would evolve and what the experience would be like. Now people just post pretty colors and say "omg snow!". Lol. Warm nose? Above freezing for 24 hours before? Crappy snow growth? Light rates during the day? Nah, that stuff doesn't matter....

I always look at qpf output and how fast it falls and then start considering mixing and all that good stuff and come up with my own potential. 

 

[RedSky]

31 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

These 87 stories are really taking me back.  Can't believe it's been 30 years.

Measured 12" with that first storm but only got scraped by the second, but made up for it with two feet of thunderstorm mash potatoes snow in February.

[wkd]

And after all that, it's hard to know where banding is going to set up, which can make a huge difference iin snow amounts.

(In response to Bob's post)

[mitchnick]

45 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'll show through hr 240, and then 384 for the extra snow weenies. It's not set in stone, but it isn't just one fantasy op run

And finally, hr 384

This is posted by popular demand though. Not trying to cause trouble

 

Could you do me a favor and include the eastern shore of MD and Delaware?  All the models treat the Chesapeake Bay like the boiling sea of fire of Gehenna and delete all accumulating snow. By including those places I can see whether the accumulating snow actually stops at the shores of the Chesapeake, or it's just the model skipping over it. Thanks. I really appreciate it. 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

These 87 stories are really taking me back.  Can't believe it's been 30 years.

The second storm on the 25th was awesome here. I think the first one was about 8", but the Superbowl Sun-Mon storm was a top 10 for me. 16-18" of wind driven cold smoke. I recall the initial forecast for 6-10 that morning. Was a really nice over-performer, and much more so a blizzard than the Jan 2016 event(which I would not put in my top 10).

[Cobalt]

Could you do me a favor and include the eastern shore of MD and Delaware?  All the models treat the Chesapeake Bay like the boiling sea of fire of Gehenna and delete all accumulating snow. By including those places I can see whether the accumulating snow actually stops at the shores of the Chesapeake, or it's just the model skipping over it. Thanks. I really appreciate it. 

I'm not at home currently, but I'll post a pic as soon as I get home


.

[87storms]

even feb 87 had that sunday night event that basically was one of the heaviest snowfalls in a short period time that i've seen around here.  was pretty young, but those flakes were enormous and could be seen even at night.  i vaguely remember jan 87, but do remember my parents having to use the snow blower and vague talk about a minor and major storm.  those were the days of dialing that 936 number to get the forecasts lol.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Could you do me a favor and include the eastern shore of MD and Delaware?  All the models treat the Chesapeake Bay like the boiling sea of fire of Gehenna and delete all accumulating snow. By including those places I can see whether the accumulating snow actually stops at the shores of the Chesapeake, or it's just the model skipping over it. Thanks. I really appreciate it. 

Only the GFS does that. Its really weird around the GLs and the bay. Euro/EPS looks "normal" lol.