Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro and GFS back to back nuke the NE. Interesting stuff going on right now. 959 into ME. Wowz

That's 12 ft. drift weather.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Question: What should we be looking for in order for that low to strengthen earlier? I’m assuming we’d like a stronger storm to maximize the potential here.

[Cobalt]

Frigid temps to close out 2017

[Cobalt]

Subzero temps in NW burbs

[Ralph Wiggum]

Subzero temps in NW burbs

Happy New Year? :-)

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Question: What should we be looking for in order for that low to strengthen earlier? I’m assuming we’d like a stronger storm to maximize the potential here.

Cleaner transfer. It would help if the trough and vort were more in phase. This solution the vort associated with the surface storm runs way out ahead of the upper level support. It's just sort of a messy evolution. Things are slightly out of sync. We win because of long duration of overunning as the trough approaches and the flow backs ahead of it forcing waa into the high locked in by blocking. I'm not greedy this solution is fine but if you want a HECS solution a cleaner more in sync system would be that. 

[psuhoffman]

And if we're lucky the bombed storm becomes our 50/50 for round two in early January. Now I'm being greedy. But we tend to go on epic heaters then years long dry spells so why not. If we're gonna do this let's really do this. 

[poolz1]

Fantasy range is gearing up...s/w coming thru the four corners...pv in se canada

[WhiteoutWX]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cleaner transfer. It would help if the trough and vort were more in phase. This solution the vort associated with the surface storm runs way out ahead of the upper level support. It's just sort of a messy evolution. Things are slightly out of sync. We win because of long duration of overunning as the trough approaches and the flow backs ahead of it forcing waa into the high locked in by blocking. I'm not greedy this solution is fine but if you want a HECS solution a cleaner more in sync system would be that. 

If that vort phases with the parent trough too soon we are back to inland runner. Too much phasing could mean snow to rain for the coast. Personally I'm not rooting for full phase unless that parent trough is centered further east. 

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That's 12 ft. drift weather.

I need to go up there and show those folks how to dig snow like a New Englander. Weathafella is getting too damn OLD. He probably has to hire a teenager to snowblow his walk lmao

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I need to go up there and show those folks how to dig snow like a New Englander. Weathafella is getting too damn OLD. He probably has to hire a teenager to snowblow his walk lmao

You should Jebwalk all the way there. Would be epic. Days of trudging through monster drifts just to help a buddy shovel. Now that’s dedication! 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

If that vort phases with the parent trough to soon we are back too inland runner. Too much phasing could mean snow to rain for the coast. Personally I'm not rooting for full phase unless that parent trough is centered further east. 

Your right that opens that door. I was thinking more of a euro type evolution. It runs that lead wave off suppressed then digs the main trough in and bombs the next vort. It also gets going slightly too late for EPIC totals here (but 12-18" is nothing to sneeze at) but not for the same reasons as the gfs. A euro like evo but with a slightly faster bomb and we get the HECS solution. But yea if the trough digs in west and something amps up in the miss valley we would be in trouble. Lots of variables. But the good news is we've seen most of them spit out the last 48 hours and we seem to win or at least get some snow with lots of them. I'm just being greedy and imagining how this could be an HECS. But an amped up phased bomb could cut too if it phases west of the apps. 

[psuhoffman]

Yep storm one becomes the 50/50 low that lets storm 2 work. Win win this run. 

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro and GFS back to back nuke the NE. Interesting stuff going on right now. 959 into ME. Wowz

and if thats not enough....the 3rd in line (although suppressed,  is more than icing on the cake if it can turn the corner).

I also was impressed with the CAD showing up this far out, as we all know it can be under modeled (although it has a 1046H parked above us).  A good sign for a cold nuke job IMO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Deepens the Low 48mb in 24 hours. 

[pasnownut]

if anyone is wondering the magnitude of the cold....just go for fun and look at the snow maps at 240 and look at south central TX and Mexico border. 

That 12" say no wall building that day...(thats a joke...OK).

 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if anyone is wondering the magnitude of the cold....just go for fun and look at the snow maps at 240 and look at south central TX and Mexico border. 

That 12" say no wall building that day...(thats a joke...OK).

 

Pretty sure that's sleet if you look at the ptype map. Either way, a lot of sleet.

[Jebman]

Dec 31 and on, spectacularly beautiful jebwalk weather in Dale City, should be plenty of snow to sprint along in, throwing up plumes of cold pow to either side, getting to breathe in deeply of pure Siberian air, and savor a comfortable, refreshing northerly breeze, day after incredible day. I want to freeze, I want to REALLY FREEZE on an invigorating jebwalk come the New Year!

[pasnownut]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Pretty sure that's sleet if you look at the ptype map. Either way, a lot of sleet.

Like i said, thats impressive cold that far south.  My mother in law is wintering within 100 miles east of that and is gonna send me nasty texts.....

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty sure that's sleet if you look at the ptype map. Either way, a lot of sleet.

It's a giant pile of sleet. They get straight up sleeted on. Maybe that's how Brownsville Tx got its name. From lots of sleet being dumped there. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

You don't have to go too far back to find similarities

[Jebman]

Imagine getting to shovel a foot of pure sleet.

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

If that vort phases with the parent trough too soon we are back to inland runner. Too much phasing could mean snow to rain for the coast. Personally I'm not rooting for full phase unless that parent trough is centered further east. 

Same thing crossed my mind...

On the flip side, we have a textbook hemispheric MA snow pattern leading in. It really has everything you look for around these parts. I can't really think of a phased inland runner with a west based block but I'm getting old and my memory sucks. Lol.

Going strictly off of mid range pattern recognition we should get a mostly clean snow event.  Some mix is surely possible. Especially east of the fall line. That's climo even in the best setups and phased storms usually wrap in some midlevel problems during the transition from waa to ccb. But an inland runner with a west based block, 50/50, and confluence to the north shouldn't be a big concern regardless of what the gfs was showing.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it until I get sleeted and then rained on. 

 

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Imagine getting to shovel a foot of pure sleet.

Sort of like shoveling a foot of rock salt...but frozen rock salt...which can never happen...but you catch my drift though right?  

See what I did there?  Damn Double IPAs are killing me...

ETA: Apologies. Clutter and banter. Delete if you must. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

For those who can see the panels, how does the 18z GEFS look?

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

For those who can see the panels, how does the 18z GEFS look?

Better than 12z, that's for sure. Individual members only go out to d6, but snow mean through the new year is 5-6" for DC region and points NW

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Best pattern analog

9th snowiest since 1945

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

For those who can see the panels, how does the 18z GEFS look?

Strong support for a storm but 2 camps. Primary into WV camp and clean transfer like the op camp. The good thing is both camps give us snow. One is prettier than the other obviously.

[nj2va]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Strong support for a storm but 2 camps. Primary into WV camp and clean transfer like the op camp. The good thing is both camps give us snow. One is prettier than the other obviously.

 

I had a feeling the GEFS was going to go back to showing two camps of WV and more southern transfer considering the OP moved off its 12z solution (and more like previous runs aka 6z). PSU is definitely right in that it seems the GEFS follows the OP by saying “oh yeah, what he said!”

[Cobalt]

There also seems to be support of a costal on Jan 3rd. Still out in fantasy range, but someone talked about a signal like this yesterday. Would be insane to have 2 5"+ events within a week of each other.