Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Moisture to our south is less suppressed than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't feel like this run will be a fail. Just gut and the 500mb look. But I could be mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Much less suppressed at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS is going to work out. If I saw this h5 panel the first thing I would think is a MA snowstorm. N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Way more juice vs. 12z. Could be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks more like 00z at this point with a little more confluence...should be a good run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 If I saw this satellite in real time the first thing I would think is where's my snowshovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS is going to work out. If I saw this h5 panel the first thing I would think is a MA snowstorm. N That's some weather porn right there. West based nao blocking. -AO. -epo. 50/50. All that energy diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 TN to SC/NC coastal handoff. This is a textbook run for our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Temps are cold on onset. Low 20s in DC to upper teens in NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 We hate the apps with clippers. We love the apps with hybrids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS is going to work out. If I saw this h5 panel the first thing I would think is a MA snowstorm. N Yep, I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: TN to SC/NC coastal handoff. This is a textbook run for our yards. It's not reaching full potential. Kind of a messy evolution and transfer. But a good run none the less. Setup is the best takeaway here. The ingredients for a major event are there on both the globals and their ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not reaching full potential. Kind of a messy evolution and transfer. But a good run none the less. Setup is the best takeaway here. The ingredients for a major event are there on both the globals and their ensembles. Pretty good tug from the northern stream and energy by the lakes. That's good for expanding the shield far NW (something we could care less about) but bad for consolidating the coastal and blowing up overhead. Still a helluva run though man. Great way to kick off the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Reading the PBP here was like watching the last episode of the Sopranos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Wow. Just wow. Great run. Temps in low 20s, CAD holds, cold air fills in on the backend as the system pivots out Nevermind, 850s give way for DC. Still cold sleet, which I guess is cool too. Shouldn't be complaining, showing a storm like this 7 days out is as good as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hug that coast baby. Give me some comma head. ETA: That might be banter. Or something from the Sopranos. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 DC and immediate burbs lose 850's at 172 but who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty good tug from the northern stream and energy by the lakes. That's good for expanding the shield far NW (something we could care less about) but bad for consolidating the coastal and blowing up overhead. Still a helluva run though man. Great way to kick off the weekend. Oh I'm not complaining one bit. I'd take it. Just pointing out that even in a slightly flawed evolution we win here. I was making light of how good the setup is that this run as good as it is wasnt maxing out potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's all being driven by these subtle vorts in fast flow over the center of the country. The parent trough is back in the plains/upper midwest, and the main vort goes through WV to NJ, which is why you see the surface low pressure trough extending back into the Great Lakes. But that is some strong CAD locked in with the -NAO so it works out. So many possibilities. What is nice though, is basically every solution the models have thrown out to this point has some snow in the 28-30th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 My novice eyes see that 1050+ HP diving down into Nebraska at 186, that likely means some serious cold to follow the storm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: It's all being driven by these subtle vorts in fast flow over the center of the country. The parent trough is back in the plains/upper midwest, and the main vort goes through WV to NJ, which is why you see the surface low pressure trough extending back into the Great Lakes. But that is some strong CAD locked in with the -NAO so it works out. So many possibilities. What is nice though, is basically every solution the models have thrown out to this point has some snow in the 28-30th period. Always a good sign that we're in a good spot. Multiple iterations over the last 3-4 days that give us at least decent snowfall. Flawed events and west tracks included. The pattern d4-5 basically yells that the MA is going to get a snow storm so the setup isn't fantasy. Details will drive us nutz though. It's not a 1 and done pattern so hopefully if we get screwed on one shortwave, the next one takes care of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 And then immediately mid teens as high temperatures the day after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The question becomes is it a 12/28 start or 12/30 start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: It's all being driven by these subtle vorts in fast flow over the center of the country. The parent trough is back in the plains/upper midwest, and the main vort goes through WV to NJ, which is why you see the surface low pressure trough extending back into the Great Lakes. But that is some strong CAD locked in with the -NAO so it works out. So many possibilities. What is nice though, is basically every solution the models have thrown out to this point has some snow in the 28-30th period. I wonder if the euro isn't right in keying on the vort associated with the main trough on the 30-31. Gfs might be jumping the gun with the front runner. Either way there is potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm OK with things being a bit washed out this far away. It'll sharpen up as it gets under 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro and GFS back to back nuke the NE. Interesting stuff going on right now. 959 into ME. Wowz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Always a good sign that we're in a good spot. Multiple iterations over the last 3-4 days that give us at least decent snowfall. Flawed events and west tracks included. The pattern d4-5 basically yells that the MA is going to get a snow storm so the setup isn't fantasy. Details will drive us nutz though. It's not a 1 and done pattern so hopefully if we get screwed on one shortwave, the next one takes care of us. They take a different route but by the 31 the euro and gfs look almost the same. Gfs develops the front runner turn basically stalls everything until the upper level energy catches up and bombs. Euro simply suppresses wave 1 and bombs wave two cleaner. But they end up looking the same by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 20 degrees in Baltimore and OC is pushing 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.