Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you take away the phase from the euro solution I doubt the NE gets anything so yes, I could easily see a further south solution (and much weaker as well) happening. 

We're benefiting from a -NAO. All guidance shows it now and only in the med range. That piece is likely at this point. -NAO aren't always great though. There's a lot of cold and blocking built into this pattern so the risk of missing to the south is always going to be there. Every piece of guidance (except the JMA) has moved away from the west track option. Still to far away to make any calls about that but today make a decisive move away from a ridge/cut evolution. 

Thanks as always Bob. Exciting times ahead for both snow and cold.  

[Wonderdog]

Hope we can score on this one. Seems we have the pattern we want and the temps are not an issue. It  doesn't get much better  snow- chance wise in our area with the pattern we will have after Christmas.

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Dang, 2-3"/hr rates for 6 hours

 

Insane LLJ, only seen with the top upstate NY, NE storms.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Hope we can score on this one. Seems we have the pattern we want and the temps are not an issue. It  doesn't get much better  snow- chance wise in our area with the pattern we will have after Christmas.

Agree. Just a point of concern.   looking at the EURO as depicted with that snowfall pattern makes me think many of us are two or three adjustments from getting nothing as this becomes a NE blizzard and we are windy and cold.  I like the previous idea of a slow moving slug of tropical moisture to our SW vice waiting for explosive development.  Maybe I am wrong and this pattern will produce.  Would rather see big accumulation to our south on those snow maps.  It says you and I are 15 inches on that Euro map but half that amount, still a great storm just 50 miles SW.  Long time to watch it. Will be fun.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree. Just a point of concern.   looking at the EURO as depicted with that snowfall pattern makes me think many of us are two or three adjustments from getting nothing as this becomes a NE blizzard and we are windy and cold.  I like the previous idea of a slow moving slug of tropical moisture to our SW vice waiting for explosive development.  Maybe I am wrong and this pattern will produce.  Would rather see big accumulation to our south on those snow maps.  It says you and I are 15 inches on that Euro map but half that amount, still a great storm just 50 miles SW.  Long time to watch it. Will be fun.

Granted its far off , but I too would like to see a little more cushion on the South side . I hate being near big time gradients . It comes from years of getitng the rug pulled from under you and seeing your snow way up North . I know climo,  but a lot of time invested into this crazy hobby.  

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you take away the phase from the euro solution I doubt the NE gets anything so yes, I could easily see a further south solution (and much weaker as well) happening. 

We're benefiting from a -NAO. All guidance shows it now and only in the med range. That piece is likely at this point. -NAO aren't always great though. There's a lot of cold and blocking built into this pattern so the risk of missing to the south is always going to be there. Every piece of guidance (except the JMA) has moved away from the west track option. Still to far away to make any calls about that but today make a decisive move away from a ridge/cut evolution. 

People are salivating or fretting over each specific run the models pop out but the bottom line is this look is only 3-4 days away. And once we get to that it's going to be hard to get out without at least a threat and a close call. It's classic. 

that configuration starts in only 3 days and then simply evolves from there.   It's not some pipe dream. The specific storm solutions a week away are but the pattern that says something like that could happen is developing very soon. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Granted its far off , but I too would like to see a little more cushion on the South side . I hate being near big time gradients . It comes from years of getitng the rug pulled from under you and seeing your snow way up North . I know climo,  but a lot of time invested into this crazy hobby.  

I agree but the 6+ goes way SW, doesn’t look as sharp of a gradient as Boxing Day due to the overrunning. 

[Conway7305]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Granted its far off , but I too would like to see a little more cushion on the South side . I hate being near big time gradients . It comes from years of getitng the rug pulled from under you and seeing your snow way up North . I know climo,  but a lot of time invested into this crazy hobby.  

I live in Richmond and hoping storm guidance shifts a bit further S for us to get in on some decent accumulations. In Big Storms over the years down here,  the Rain/Mix line is usually around Norfolk/Tidewater as Low moves near northern OBX and rides offshore and up the coast.     Great run though.  Glad it’s not a cutter.  

[SteveVa]

Where do I sign?

[WxUSAF]

EPS has been bouncing between super wet and drier runs. Yesterday’s 0z was wet, 12z dried out, and today repeats the pattern. Maybe just coincidence but a bit odd. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

CPC bad forecasts

 

[PDIII]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

CPC bad forecasts

 

Why is this a bad forecast. It says that there is good chance for above average precip. And it generally looks cold in the long range. That seems good to me.. am I missing something?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

There is no moisture on the southern stream. 

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Why is this a bad forecast. It says that there is good chance for above average precip. And it generally looks cold in the long range. That seems good to me.. am I missing something?

You aren't the one missing something.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

If you take away the phase from the euro solution I doubt the NE gets anything so yes, I could easily see a further south solution (and much weaker as well) happening. 

We're benefiting from a -NAO. All guidance shows it now and only in the med range. That piece is likely at this point. -NAO aren't always great though. There's a lot of cold and blocking built into this pattern so the risk of missing to the south is always going to be there. Every piece of guidance (except the JMA) has moved away from the west track option. Still to far away to make any calls about that but today make a decisive move away from a ridge/cut evolution. 

I am loving the look of the NAO on all of the models at this point. Nice west based -NAO is usually money for us as far as storm track goes. It does seem to want to break down toward the end of the GFS run. But who knows if anything in lala land is accurate.

[PDIII]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am loving the look of the NAO on all of the models at this point. Nice west based -NAO is usually money for us as far as storm track goes. It does seem to want to break down toward the end of the GFS run. But who knows if anything in lala land is accurate.

Don't we usually get our shots on the tail end of a -nao pattern? Like when block begins to relax? Isn't that a thing?

[nj2va]

Colder yet again on the EPS.  

ETA: actually pretty similar to previous runs with offsetting few degree forecasts here and there.  

[frd]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Colder yet again on the EPS.  

Was it yesterday there where three nights at 10 degrees F or was that for BWI.?

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Was it yesterday there where three nights at 10 degrees F or was that for BWI.?

 

 

 

 

BWI

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Was it yesterday there where three nights at 10 degrees F or was that for BWI.?

 

 

 

 

I think that was BWI

[poolz1]

Maybe this has already been posted?  A snowstorm is pos and the ingredients are there....About all we can say at this point...

".LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Windy but otherwise dry and chilly weather expected Christmas
Day as rapidly strengthening low pressure moves away to the
northeast. There may be some lingering upslope snow showers
along the Allegheny Front early. Otherwise, high pressure will
be building in, with below normal temps but dry weather Monday
night through Wednesday night. By Thursday, things get much more
interesting. Guidance is depicting a coastal low developing off
the Carolina coast as a shortwave dives southeast around the
longwave trough which will be sitting over the Great Lakes. This
low then rapidly strengthens as it heads northeast off the
coast. This is still WAY out there in time and there remains a
lot of potential for change...indeed, latest guidance has
shifted south with the low...but at this point such a shift
should not be taken as a reduction in threat. A lot can still
happen with this system, but with a strong arctic high pressure
expected to be over eastern Canada and ridging over the western
Atlantic, potential for a coastal low pressure and snow storm is
elevated. We will be watching this closely over the coming
days."

[Wonderdog]

 

NWS for my area shows a 30% chance of snow on Thursday night and a 50% chance on Friday. Getting there.

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Don't we usually get our shots on the tail end of a -nao pattern? Like when block begins to relax? Isn't that a thing?

Heather Archambault event, yes

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Colder yet again on the EPS.  

ETA: actually pretty similar to previous runs with offsetting few degree forecasts here and there.  

That is at least 10 straight without getting above freezing. Impressive.

[poolz1]

Actually we usually get our snowstorms on the weekend...which is why the euro is much more believable.. 

[Amped]

18z GFS looks almost identical to 6z 72hrs. 12z might have been a hiccup.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Granted its far off , but I too would like to see a little more cushion on the South side . I hate being near big time gradients . It comes from years of getitng the rug pulled from under you and seeing your snow way up North . I know climo,  but a lot of time invested into this crazy hobby.  

Agreed.  This is a dodgy setup and we rarely so well with Miller Bs it's an okay run but we are so far out that a lot can go wrong.  It would be easier is this were a Miller A.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed.  This is a dodgy setup and we rarely so well with Miller Bs it's an okay run but we are so far out that a lot can go wrong.  It would be easier is this were a Miller A.

Southern stream dominant hybrid miller b storms are some of our biggest events. Northern stream miller bs I agree with you. This isn't that. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed.  This is a dodgy setup and we rarely so well with Miller Bs it's an okay run but we are so far out that a lot can go wrong.  It would be easier is this were a Miller A.

Models aren't really showing a miller B. The euro was a stream phase and not a coastal jumper. The vort exits the southern rockies and tracks east under a block. We would have still gotten snow from it even without the phase so it's more like a miller A than anything else. It's a hybrid type of setup and not the super sketchy vort dropping down from the upper midwest and rounds the base. Those are the ones that leave us crying watching radar. lol

What we're hoping for and what seems most likely is an amplifying shortwave south of our latitude drawing gulf moisture. The storm "should" be relatively mature before it reaches the coast. I'm not saying we can't fail because we sure as hell can but it won't be the gut punch style that a normal miller B delivers. Our biggest risk is having too strong of a block and having the entire precip shield miss the east coast north of NC. That just a regular fail and not a miller b fail. 

 

ETA: what psu said

 

 

[poolz1]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

18z GFS looks almost identical to 6z 72hrs. 12z might have been a hiccup.

Agreed...s/w has some gusto to it coming thru the rockies..12z was weak sauce at this point