Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 10-15" storm region wide The semi phase with the lakes low makes it all happen. When is the last time (if ever) we've had this kind of progression? I can't think of a single one honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Widespread 12-17 inches of snow on the Euro with this storm. Beautiful. If only it didn't push it back a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is shred factory through d7. Still setting up for something but getting pushed back in time. No a good run imho. No shortwaves stand a chance for a while after Christmas with that sort of upper level look I'm not saying I like the idea of delaying things but a couple days ago this was a 30th system. Then the models started keying on a vort ahead of it. Now the euro went back to the second ( or third if you count that weak wave on the 27th). I'm not too concerned with models still being undecided which system to amp up so long as the setup remains solid. Give me multiple chances from this range anyday. Fast flow with lots of embedded vorts is a problem for the models. January 2000 bust happened because all the guidance was focused on the wrong vort and something right in front of their face popped. But the underlying pattern was good. Same here. I'm not sure how this resolves itself but I still feel we have a very good chance to come out of the next 2 weeks with significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 10-15" storm region wide If only this hobby required virtual snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Widespread 12-21 inches on the Euro with Kuchera ratios. Regular 10:1 still gives 10-15 inches. It really sticks around on us too, even as the storm is moving away we're in the deep purple bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 We can wait a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The semi phase with the lakes low makes it all happen. When is the last time (if ever) we've had this kind of progression? I can't think of a single one honestly I haven't looked at the upper levels, but sounds unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 What a nuke. Up north does better of course but we get into the comma head. Frigid cold smoking powder with some gusty winds to add that special appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Regardless of the "new" solution on the euro. Each shortwave will have a chance to do something. The shred factory is certainly possible but who knows how each sw plays out. First one midweek will probably fall victim to the squash hammer. Beyond that is tune in every 6 hours and get your fill of options. The 50/50 low definitely isn't too far south. There is a strong surface high in almost the prefect spot for a KU storm. These are the same factors made the shred factory very unsuccessful in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We can wait a day Lemme guess, you get back the day before????? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The semi phase with the lakes low makes it all happen. When is the last time (if ever) we've had this kind of progression? I can't think of a single one honestly Saw this in the SE forum... maybe that's why it looks weird? 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Tries to phase in the arctic wave way too soon .. I really think this is going stay a separate wave and run a Miller A low for the New year's eve storm. The Baffin Block will not allow a phase like this if it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 You know it's a straight up nuke when NYC is getting a blizzard while BOS rains. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: What a nuke. Up north does better of course but we get into the comma head. Frigid cold smoking powder with some gusty winds to add that special appeal. Im not worried about day 8 details this is a "just for fun" comment but I wouldn't assume up north does that much better. We're right under the best dynamics as the ccb is intensifying. Super high ratios in that area. Our 1" qpf could be as much snow otg as areas with 2" qpf in that qpf bomb area that deal with some warm layers if I had to guess as the low wraps up a bit close. I'd take it how run exactly as is and be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I feel bad for the West side of the mountains...actually that look gives me pause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 10-15" storm region wide Lol.. it is not a good sign when the day 8 storm becomes the day 10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Im not worried about day 8 details this is a "just for fun" comment but I wouldn't assume up north does that much better. We're right under the best dynamics as the ccb is intensifying. Super high ratios in that area. Our 1" qpf could be as much snow otg as areas with 2" qpf in that qpf bomb area that deal with some warm layers if I had to guess as the low wraps up a bit close. I'd take it how run exactly as is and be very happy. There's 3 feet of fantasy snow being shoveled in northern MA this run. lol. I love the run as is and could care less who gets what. It's just such a sweet progression with the phase. There would be tons of +TSSN going on as it wraps up. Maybe not here but as depicted it would be historic. The wind on the backside would probably plant 6' drifts in our areal. LOL. Jeb will be a VERY busy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Lol.. it is not a good sign when the day 8 storm becomes the day 10 storm Huh? It is a Day 8 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12"+ of wind whipped powder during the day with temps in the lower 20s. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Wake up New Years Day to wind chills around or below zero as well with teh snow on the ground... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 12"+ of wind whipped powder during the day with temps in the lower 20s. What could go wrong? That's climo right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: That's climo right Climo for DC is 15.4" I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Im not worried about day 8 details this is a "just for fun" comment but I wouldn't assume up north does that much better. We're right under the best dynamics as the ccb is intensifying. Super high ratios in that area. Our 1" qpf could be as much snow otg as areas with 2" qpf in that qpf bomb area that deal with some warm layers if I had to guess as the low wraps up a bit close. I'd take it how run exactly as is and be very happy. Just looking off the thermals provided by WxBell since we can't see a sounding, that would be some serious high ratio fluff factor going with model planting the -10C H7 isotherm right up and down the central portion of MD down into extreme N VA while we're in the CCB. Omega numbers would undoubtedly be off the chart within the DGZ for a time. It's the kind of system that with 0.3" precip in the back would lead to snowfall totals similar to 0.7" on the front. I'd take this and run if I could. A pretty phenomenal upper level progression. Central and Northern Jersey get the hammer drop on this one, but I'd gladly take my cold smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's 3 feet of fantasy snow being shoveled in northern MA this run. lol. I love the run as is and could care less who gets what. It's just such a sweet progression with the phase. There would be tons of +TSSN going on as it wraps up. Maybe not here but as depicted it would be historic. The wind on the backside would probably plant 6' drifts in our areal. LOL. Jeb will be a VERY busy man. I was referring to philly nyc and Boston. Yea interior northeast from the poconos to Catskills get obliterated but I'm not wasting time comparing my snow to those areas. That would get depressing most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 12"+ of wind whipped powder during the day with temps in the lower 20s. What could go wrong? I'm a little bummed that we don't get fantasy blizzard conditions. Close but only 40+mph gusts and not sustained. Oh well. Maybe at 0z. Jokes aside, it's a phased solution d7+ so no freekin way we can discuss details other than having fun. Let's assume it doesn't phase...looks like we would still get somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-6" before it goes out to sea. The NE wouldn't get much at all without a phase. Fun run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Even with my general distaste of snowmaps...hard not to enjoy this one. 3-4' in MA/VT. Wowz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Even with my general distaste of snowmaps...hard not to enjoy this one. 3-4' in MA/VT. Wowz and that is at 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So looking at just our area.... It's a 24 hour storm with temps in the 20's then dropping into the upper teens at the end. 12 straight hours 1"/hr+ rates. Capped off with 40mph gusts as it pulls away. The chances of it going down like this are pretty slim for now but it's fun to dream a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm a little bummed that we don't get fantasy blizzard conditions. Close but only 40+mph gusts and not sustained. Oh well. Maybe at 0z. Jokes aside, it's a phased solution d7+ so no freekin way we can discuss details other than having fun. Let's assume it doesn't phase...looks like we would still get somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-6" before it goes out to sea. The NE wouldn't get much at all without a phase. Fun run though. I thought it was 35 mph sustained? Will look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So looking at just our area.... It's a 24 hour storm with temps in the 20's then dropping into the upper teens at the end. 12 straight hours 1"/hr+ rates. Capped off with 40mph gusts as it pulls away. The chances of it going down like this are pretty slim for now but it's fun to dream a little. Bob, you seeig any potential of the storm being forecasted further South in time, even though that normally does not happen, as in a stronger 50 50 low ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, you seeig any potential of the storm being forecasted further South in time, even though that normally does not happen, as in a stronger 50 50 low ? If you take away the phase from the euro solution I doubt the NE gets anything so yes, I could easily see a further south solution (and much weaker as well) happening. We're benefiting from a -NAO. All guidance shows it now and only in the med range. That piece is likely at this point. -NAO aren't always great though. There's a lot of cold and blocking built into this pattern so the risk of missing to the south is always going to be there. Every piece of guidance (except the JMA) has moved away from the west track option. Still to far away to make any calls about that but today make a decisive move away from a ridge/cut evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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