AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's a dry pattern. The Hudson bay block of 528 is awesome. should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I think we would all take P008 lol... but yes, there are no cutters on there, but quite a few no storm ones It's better than that panel looks. 2 of the members amp the lead wave with of good event. P01 & 02 are acceptable...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 45 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It hasn’t been performing too well at all this fall and winter. A lot of swings from run to run. I think there has been quite a bit of tweaking and adjusting going on which has affected performance. This isn't correct. The last GEFS upgrade was in December 2015. It has been underdispersive for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 JMA has the late week system so far suppressed it goes to Bermuda by 12z Friday. Followup wave/system goes from Rockies to Great Lakes. Kitchen sink suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When was the last big (widespread 10"+) event that was north on the guidance 4-7 days out and trended south to crush us. Honest question. I'm trying to think of all the big ones and every one seems to have been either a hit or south at that range. I can't think of a single one that was supposed to be a snow north of us and became a mecs or HECS for us. ETA: I can think of a few SECS level events that shifted south inside a few days. March 2014 being one example. But no big ones. Yes. March 2014 I thought I was gold and you guys stole every last flake. Im over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, high risk said: This isn't correct. The last GEFS upgrade was in December 2015. It has been underdispersive for many years. Talking about the operational gfs not the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 But the NAVGEM is a huge hit. Most progressive model with farthest W and least progressive solution. This is like a game of Clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro won't have the same solution as 0Z, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 ... The Euro just gave our storm to South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro is shred factory through d7. Still setting up for something but getting pushed back in time. No a good run imho. No shortwaves stand a chance for a while after Christmas with that sort of upper level look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I like the Euro D7 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Talking about the operational gfs not the ensemble. sorry for not following the thread closely. You're correct in that there have been two GFS upgrades in the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Held lots of energy back north of the Dakotas but it's a coming .. late if it's with the northern stream, congrats Detroit----Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is shred factory through d7. Still setting up for something but getting pushed back in time. No a good run imho. No shortwaves stand a chance for a while after Christmas with that sort of upper level look We were worried about rain. How often does the Euro come North ? A bit dissapointed here, not in the solution, but more so the general trends today across all modeling. We have to produce in this window IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Yup. at 7.5 it looks like the Euro is doing that thing where it spits out a few different packets of energy instead of making it one big storm. Looks like whatever is coming is going to be a d8 system on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It took its sweet time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: if it's with the northern stream, congrats Detroit----Cleveland Huh? It rides under us with good column. Zero chance of a cut like that with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I really like the look of it at d8 though. Just wish it wasn't pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro is a nice hit...as mentioned, now a 12/30 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Yup. at 7.5 it looks like the Euro is doing that thing where it spits out a few different packets of energy instead of making it one big storm. Looks like whatever is coming is going to be a d8 system on the Euro. still cold as he!! at day 7.5 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Huh? It rides under us with good column. Zero chance of a cut like that with this setup. when he said coming from the Dakotas, weenie paranoia always win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Oh my, d8 looks gorgeous. Honestly it looks like the same storm that we saw on d7 on the Euro, just a day later, and colder, and perhaps a bit juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Regardless of the "new" solution on the euro. Each shortwave will have a chance to do something. The shred factory is certainly possible but who knows how each sw plays out. First one midweek will probably fall victim to the squash hammer. Beyond that is tune in every 6 hours and get your fill of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Euro is a nice hit...as mentioned, now a 12/30 storm... DT talked about their being 2 different storms. 12/28 being smaller, but 12/30 being the big dog. Seems like this could be what's happening. We get shafted 12/28 and get hit 12/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 lol...Euro is a stone cold assassin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: lol...Euro is a stone cold assassin... More overunning based than synoptic so easy on the nerves with the only issue being 8 days away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: lol...Euro is a stone cold assassin... God I love that phrase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is one of the few....very few...times that a lakes low is our best friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10-15" storm region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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