yoda Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Better look on the gfs? H5 improved but the column is wrecked. It's a disaster. We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Better look on the gfs? H5 improved but the column is wrecked. It's a disaster. Still looks better than 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 And he said nothing on the Canadian, so the Canadian is obviously correctCanadian alot closer to euro which he loves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 COmparing 108hr SLP maps in the North Pacific, the 00z CMC clearly caved into the 12z EUro. The GFS is still insisting on keeping the storm near the dateline further west like the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Better look on the gfs? H5 improved but the column is wrecked. It's a disaster. Yea I got ahead of myself, @ 144 hours or so I thought the shortwave in West Canada would race down to reinforce the cold before the main show came East, but it didn't... Regardless, the 00z CMC is a dream solution day 7-10, so we got that going for us....It also is about as close to X-mas miracle as we've seen so far too FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Better look on the gfs? H5 improved but the column is wrecked. It's a disaster. going to be some interesting runs tomorrow. both the cmc and gfs show quite a lot of precip in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Still looks better than 18z GFS Antecedent airmass sucked and this h5 setup on approach? Dude, there is no appreciable improvement whatsoever. It's worse and this type of look is never good for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 60's for the 29th anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: 60's for the 29th anyone? Would that even make sense given how cold it would be two days before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Bob, I think what most of us were seeing was @ 120-144 hours it did look like the trough was flatter out West so there wouldn't be as much ridging out ahead of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would that even make sense given how cold it would be two days before? Sure why not with a strong flow out of the southwest. We are on the wrong side of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would that even make sense given how cold it would be two days before? Yea, we've had plenty of snow events with cold on the way out and a west track putting us square in the warm sector after precip shuts off. Sucks when it happens but at least you can enjoy a snowfall for a few hours before it goes down the storm drain. I don't think the gfs has it right but the solution is plausible. 2 in a row to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 and just a 3 hour drive north east you can bask in 30 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, we've had plenty of snow events with cold on the way out and a west track putting us square in the warm sector after precip shuts off. Sucks when it happens but at least you can enjoy a snowfall for a fee hours before it goes down the storm drain. I don't think the gfs has it right but the solution is plausible. 2 in a row to boot. I mean, I know that can happen, but...THAT warm? (60 degrees?) Lol And hey, just as you have the GFS and EURO at odds...so are the two almanacs for that date. One says snow NE and mostly rain in Maryland, the other says snow (seriously, somebody make a Farmer's Almanac page! Would be so much fun to track what it gets right, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Meh, let's just ignore the GFS and ride the 00z CMC and the 00z EURO when it comes out in hour and half and shows a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would that even make sense given how cold it would be two days before? See 1/17/94. I’m not sure it went that warm but I know NYC was 12 and then 52 the same day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: See 1/17/94. I’m not sure it went that warm but I know NYC was 12 and then 52 the same day I do not remember the exact date, it was somewhere between 1992-1994. It snowed 6 inches in the morning and was in the 60's by evening. I was living in Carroll County at the time. I wish I could remember the exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 what exactly is allowing the northern stream to capture the energy in the 00z rather than phasing with the southern low further east like in the 18z? Is it just the southeast ridge fooking things up? Really looks odd, especially around 210, but idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Meh, let's just ignore the GFS and ride the 00z CMC and the 00z EURO when it comes out in hour and half and shows a MECS I don't think the gfs idea is how it goes down but I won't ignore it. Strong shortwaves are going to try to cut in this pattern. Might not be nearly as extreme if something cuts. It's something we'll have to worry about for at least 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS vs Euro. Look ar the Pacific, Euro has the ridge further east and it has less room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I do not remember the exact date, it was somewhere between 1992-1994. It snowed 6 inches in the morning and was in the 60's by evening. I was living in Carroll County at the time. I wish I could remember the exact date. May have been Dec 1992, I got 2 inches snow then that afternoon it was 63 degrees. I was not happy, to put it mildly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS says let's try Jan 3rd now instead. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, evaporativecooler said: what exactly is allowing the northern stream to capture the energy in the 00z rather than phasing with the southern low further east like in the 18z? Is it just the southeast ridge fooking things up? Really looks odd, especially around 210, but idk. It's not really a se ridge. The ridge is caused by the digging shortwave in the west. The trough digs basically due south without moving east so the downstream response is to raise heights because there is no confluence or block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: May have been Dec 1992, I got 2 inches snow then that afternoon it was 63 degrees. I was not happy, to put it mildly Yes I believe that was the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: GFS says let's try Jan 3rd now instead. Lol Yes... That would be nice... Only one day of work before getting nailed. Wouldn't ruin anyone NYE plans either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS has a MECS 240+ hours out, like it usually does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yes... That would be nice... Only one day of work before getting nailed. Wouldn't ruin anyone NYE plans either. I badly wanted a Dec 31 til Jan 1 storm so bad, heavy snow or better yet, severe ICE. Perfect timing. Besides, who needs to go somewhere to celebrate New Years when you got deep snow and/or ice? Go out and savor a jebwalk, wear a t-shirt and drink an ice cold molson for the full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: GFS says let's try Jan 3rd now instead. Lol Struggling to find an analog. March 1960 is close, but this is a big storm in the south too. Best fantasy storm of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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