poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 s/w weaker....looks more like the euro. Def a dif look than previous runs with no return flow out of the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This run is a great example of why you can't rely on an op run 7-8 days out...Ensembles are the way to go until 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS says bye bye to sig storm potential next week. Model has been very inconsistent run to run for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS looking different at 144h. Colder, wetter, with a slug of moisture sitting over Iowa. Well.. at least it didn't let us down on Christmas morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS doesn't look like a monster storm but it looks like snow hangs around, and the temps are really good for fluffy high ratio snow. Curious to see what happens after it passes, wonder if we get a two-part solution like the Euro a couple runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: s/w weaker....looks more like the euro. Def a dif look than previous runs with no return flow out of the gulf... Yeah its weaker and its a tad faster. Verbatim a nice little event still. No taint. Cold powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: 12z looks like more moisture drawn up so far on the cmc. Yeah, it's less suppressed this run, but still mostly a miss for us. The GFS and CMC are now in much better agreement. Not where we want them to be, but not too far off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Definitely a different looking run. Scraps the big overrunning for a late blooming coastal. Blocking over the top in the NAO domain makes me think this solution has potential to slow down/ trend west towards the coast. This is a whole new solution though so not sure I buy it. Want to see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS doesn't look like a monster storm but it looks like snow hangs around, and the temps are really good for fluffy high ratio snow. Curious to see what happens after it passes, wonder if we get a two-part solution like the Euro a couple runs ago. It tried to draw that coastal lp in but was too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah its weaker and its a tad faster. Verbatim a nice little event still. No taint. Cold powder. I am not complaining about that run but I was really liking the idea of a moisture bomb overrunning deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Went from double digit snow total opportunity to 3” maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Went from double digit snow total opportunity to 3” maybe? I'm seeing widespread 5-6". This is fluffy, high ratio snow as modeled in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CMC and Euro leading the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Coming out in smaller/faster pieces is very possible. There's an entire camp that supports that as well as an amped precip bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I am not complaining about that run but I was really liking the idea of a moisture bomb overrunning deal... I like the SE coastal idea, and with enough blocking and the 50-50 vortex, this could end up deeper/closer to the coast. Lots to be worked out and lots of time to watch it unfold. Just another scenario in the range of possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: I'm seeing widespread 5-6". This is fluffy, high ratio snow as modeled in the GFS. I only looked briefly. That’s ok I suppose. For now we take. We know full well it’s going to change again and again for days (meaning my mood AND the models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS cannot be trusted with anything beyond day 3. It’s been very inconsistent run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'd actually prefer the the PNA ridge like the 12z gfs shows verses the GOA ridge. +PNA/-NAO combo is an earmark of a cold snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Also, those temps the GFS is showing. Wowzers. We get 5-6" of powder on Day 7 and temps under 32 degrees for multiple days on end, should stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'd actually prefer the the PNA ridge like the 12z gfs shows verses the GOA ridge. +PNA/-NAO combo is an earmark of a cold snowstorm. agree. I like cold powder that sticks on everything even if it means less. This solution helps temper some of the rainy ones which I had thought might get some legs. still might but not this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 at 228 hrs., GFS is priming the pump for a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Look at these post-event temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hopefully that LP in the Gulf can ride up the coast on New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: at 228 hrs., GFS is priming the pump for a Miller A Squash city above it. Not that I give a crap but no way that thing runs the coast with the ul setup in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I believe the Euro was kind of similar to what the 12Z GFS showed...but more moisture and snow? Going by some of the discussion earlier, it had similar cold powder but more like ~6"+ I gather. Somewhat weaker wave like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: at 228 hrs., GFS is priming the pump for a Miller A 500 doesn’t suggest it’d come up the coast but we’ll see. ETA: ninja’d by chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Squash city above it. Not that I give a crap but no way that thing runs the coast with the ul setup in place. depends on how slow it moves; flow definitely needs to back though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Hopefully that LP in the Gulf can ride up the coast on New Years Looks more like snow/ice event for the deep south. That would have a really tough time gaining latitude with the advertised h5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: depends on how slow it moves; flow definitely needs to back though Squash city is probably near the bottom of the list of things I'm going to worry about. We have yet to have an amplified/suppressed long range solution verify this year. Euro was a 1-2 with pieces ejecting out. GFS is similar to that. Euro will prob come in with a phased precip bomb to keep us guessing for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks more like snow/ice event for the deep south. That would have a really tough time gaining latitude with the advertised h5 pattern. does have that Dec, 1989 look to it at this point this run may not do it, but nothing has been stuck south of us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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