Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs still can't shake these few members with the sw dump and se ridge. Hopefully by the end of the weekend these are a memory but shows it's still on the table and any solution really.

6z

 

didnt look at the individuals...just mean, and was playing the %'s.  Still too far out to be parsing through too many details IMO.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

At this point, I couldn't care less if this 'storm' is rain.  I just want some damn precip.  .17" on the month so far, and .28" since Nov 7.  It's been ridiculously dry.

[WxUSAF]

3 days in a row with the EPS mean low of 10F at BWI around New Years.  LOL that's insane.  I'll take the over on that.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Gefs still can't shake these few members with the sw dump and se ridge. Hopefully by the end of the weekend these are a memory but shows it's still on the table and any solution really.
6z

We want something inbetween and not to lose the SE ridge completely else suppression depression.

[weatherCCB]

Low of 10 might not be likely, but if we get snow cover , i could see it

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

 Probably not likely but with snow-cover . I could definitely see a good chance of it.

I could see one day like that, sure.  Maybe two.  Three in a row is pretty hardcore.  

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3 days in a row with the EPS mean low of 10F at BWI around New Years.  LOL that's insane.  I'll take the over on that.  

Yeah i saw the daily ECMWF graphs and that is a STRONG signal for cold.  Whether over or not, the signal for cold is the win IMO.

 

[Bob Chill]

Unless this storm goes poof completely, it seems like all systems go at 1 week leads. 

6z gefs moving with the op's idea of a WV transfer. Not set in stone, not our favorite place, but still completely workable:

 

As expected, the trend to flatten the ridge out in from of the vort is happening run over run. Looks like the odds of a bad west track w/ warm sector and dry slot is becoming less likely. Certainly still possible but seeing models trend away from this idea goes along with the trends we've seen lately with models overdoing amplification and slowly backing off. 

All in all you have to like where we sit for this. We're kinda right in the middle of spread for the precip shield. 

 

 

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unless this storm goes poof completely, it seems like all systems go at 1 week leads. 

6z gefs moving with the op's idea of a WV transfer. Not set in stone, not our favorite place, but still completely workable:

 

As expected, the trend to flatten the ridge out in from of the vort is happening run over run. Looks like the odds of a bad west track w/ warm sector and dry slot is becoming less likely. Certainly still possible but seeing models trend away from this idea goes along with the trends we've seen lately with models overdoing amplification and slowly backing off. 

All in all you have to like where we sit for this. We're kinda right in the middle of spread for the precip shield. 

 

 

I transferred to WV. Weird. Lol. Ideally the transfer is better for us further south I know. Still a chance for that I’ll assume?

[osfan24]

I'm expecting an adjustment to an earlier transfer as we get closer to game day. It just seems like an odd transfer spot to me and it's going to be plowing into some very cold air. That's not a typical place for us to see a transfer. We usually see it happen either farther north or farther south than that. You get the transfer down in the Tennessee area and you get our typical big snowstorm out of it or you see it transfer late up in like the Pittsburgh area and we usually get a front thump and then dryslot/drizzle.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm expecting an adjustment to an earlier transfer as we get closer to game day. It just seems like an odd transfer spot to me and it's going to be plowing into some very cold air. That's not a typical place for us to see a transfer. We usually see it happen either farther north or farther south than that. You get the transfer down in the Tennessee area and you get our typical big snowstorm out of it or you see it transfer late up in like the Pittsburgh area and we usually get a front thump and then dryslot/drizzle.

Unfortunately we've seen a lot of WV transfers and it's pretty common. In some ways it's a climo track moreso than a clean TN transfer to the coast. We mix more often than clean storms. But I do agree with you. If I was forced to place a bet right now I would reluctantly wager on the better southern solution. 

[PDIII]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm expecting an adjustment to an earlier transfer as we get closer to game day. It just seems like an odd transfer spot to me and it's going to be plowing into some very cold air. That's not a typical place for us to see a transfer. We usually see it happen either farther north or farther south than that. You get the transfer down in the Tennessee area and you get our typical big snowstorm out of it or you see it transfer late up in like the Pittsburgh area and we usually get a front thump and then dryslot/drizzle.

Yeah... I am not overly concerned with the 6z idea.  Looks to me that the change over happens after we get most of the good precip. With crashing temps after the storm.. any rain we do get will only serve to give us that shell on top of the snow. 

[mitchnick]

I recall over the years, none I can name in particular, that had WV transfers.  I wanna say from the 70's or 80's. We taint, but always did well on the front end with a change back possible. Very much what the Gfs shows at 6z.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I recall over the years, none I can name in particular, that had WV transfers.  I wanna say from the 70's or 80's. We taint, but always did well on the front end with a change back possible. Very much what the Gfs shows at 6z.

If you get a low in WV, you want the SLP to be above 1008 mb, less of a big push of warm air at the mid levels...usually helps us stay snow longer.  

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recall over the years, none I can name in particular, that had WV transfers.  I wanna say from the 70's or 80's. We taint, but always did well on the front end with a change back possible. Very much what the Gfs shows at 6z.

 

I'm almost sure we had at least 1 in 13-14. And maybe another in 14-15. We definitely had one in 12-13 although I'm not sure it transferred.... 

[nj2va]

Ski resorts in the mountains would do some major business especially next weekend.  As the 6z GFS depicted, the mountains would see good upslope snows as the low pulls to the NE as winds are howling out of the NW.  

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately we've seen a lot of WV transfers and it's pretty common. In some ways it's a climo track moreso than a clean TN transfer to the coast. We mix more often than clean storms. But I do agree with you. If I was forced to place a bet right now I would reluctantly wager on the better southern solution. 

I guess I'm also thinking this has bigger potential that what the models are showing at the moment (I see the big daddy scenario) though of course there's also the chance it ends up being a worse version of February 2014. It just seems like it wants to snow and overperform this year and I see some February 2003 in this one.

We do tend to mix more than not, but not when it comes to the big ones. A lot of them are usually pretty clean, though 2003 did have some sleet at the end and 1996 had some sleet as well. Maybe it's just recency bias because we did so well in 2009-2010 and then 2016.

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z takes the slp south and redevelops off NC coast.  Still taint,  but much less, with a change back to snow. 8"+ for area. Primary holds on into WV panhandle,  hence the taint. 

Western burbs never flip on this run. With a track like the 6Z is showing and the cold air a lot of us wouldnt taint at all. Surface temps are high teens pretty much the entire storm and 850's go above freezing just west of DC. That track is a classic crushjob for NW burbs. What a run.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately we've seen a lot of WV transfers and it's pretty common. In some ways it's a climo track moreso than a clean TN transfer to the coast. We mix more often than clean storms. But I do agree with you. If I was forced to place a bet right now I would reluctantly wager on the better southern solution. 

What you guys just said is what i've been thinking that as long as the cold holds, it would force and earlier transfer (and further south).  To me a slightly less amped storm that limits taint for most of us, is better than going for the big juicy one, and riding the line...

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recall over the years, none I can name in particular, that had WV transfers.  I wanna say from the 70's or 80's. We taint, but always did well on the front end with a change back possible. Very much what the Gfs shows at 6z.

No two storms are ever exactly alike but climo on a track like that when an arctic high and cold are in place would be a good thump snow (4-8") in the cities then a period of sleet and freezing rain before maybe ending as some light rain and drizzle. Usually that location of transfer will save our area from intrusion of the warm sector. Temps might get into the mid 30s along 95 but we wouldn't be looking at 50s and driving rain. Areas NW of leesburg to Frederick do very well in that setup. 

People worry about warm heavy rain after a change over but in reality the mechanism for heavy precip is mostly north of the warm front boundary east of the low and in the CCB behind the low.  Unless the storm cuts way west and we get into the warm sector and associated convective rain bands typically we are spared that fate and it's a nice snow to ice to cold drizzle event.  Its an ok track for this area as long as people don't fret getting a little non snow in the storm.  

 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you get a low in WV, you want the SLP to be above 1008 mb, less of a big push of warm air at the mid levels...usually helps us stay snow longer.  

There is no firm rule because the location and strength of the high has just as much to do with it and the antecedent airmass. There are too many variables to only look at the low mslp 

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I'm almost sure we had at least 1 in 13-14. And maybe another in 14-15. We definitely had one in 12-13 although I'm not sure it transferred.... 

My above description is based on this type of track when there is a cold antecedent airmass and a 1040+ high to our north at the onset.  The same track with only a mediocre airmass and 1030 high or no high would be garbage. I know I'm not telling you anything you don't know but some throw around these firm rules for track. Just because one storm (like the one in dec 2012 for example) wasn't good doesn't mean the same track wouldn't be ok now. That airmass in 12 for instance was mediocre cold at best and the high was no where near as favorable. Those factors matter a lot. We're going into this one with way more wiggle room for a non perfect track then usual. 

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Western burbs never flip on this run. With a track like the 6Z is showing and the cold air a lot of us wouldnt taint at all. Surface temps are high teens pretty much the entire storm and 850's go above freezing just west of DC. That track is a classic crushjob for NW burbs. What a run.

It's way way way too early to get into details like rain snow line but IF we ended up with a track like the gfs given the airmass in place probably NW of leesburg to reisterstown line would have minimal if any mixing. But we're 5 days away from that kind of analysis. 

[SteveVa]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

DT is dyslexic, so please by all means continue to make fun of someone with a reading/writing disability. 

I wasn't aware of that and I apologize for my inappropriate joke. 

FWIW 06z GEFS looks a bit better for SE VA judging by the snowfall mean maps...not that they are any good. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

I wasn't aware of that and I apologize for my inappropriate joke. 

FWIW 06z GEFS looks a bit better for SE VA judging by the snowfall mean maps...not that they are any good. 

In simple terms when looking at snowfall maps/means, i try to look at the boundary lines for trends, whether max potential, or r/s line etc..  But there are better maps for that stuff.  Not really worth more than that other than some perty colors.

[nj2va]

Not that this should be taken verbatim but I like the EPS probability maps for seeing where its honing in on potential for winter weather, not necessarily the exact snowfall amounts.  But through New Years Day, DC has 70% chance for at least 3”, northern counties 75%, RIC >50%, VA Beach/Norfolk 25-30%.  For 6”+, its 50%, 55%, 25%, 0-10%, respectively.  

[87storms]

this may have been mentioned but i do find it funny on tidbits that the 198 frame on the 6z gfs has heavy precip off the delmarva shaped like a L.

also, i'm sure the track of the low matters a bit less when there's an abundance of cold air around similar to 13/14.  we're just so used to fringe temps.  hopefully this isn't one of those cases where we have to sweat the rain/snow line.

[cae]

Although the CMC op didn't have much for us, the CMC ensemble signal for the end-of-month storm got stronger in the 00z run.  Cold too - not a lot of rainy solutions.

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, cae said:

Although the CMC op didn't have much for us, the CMC ensemble signal for the end-of-month storm got stronger in the 00z run.  Cold too - not a lot of rainy solutions.

12z looks like more moisture drawn up so far on the cmc.

[PDIII]

Might be too early to tell... But it looks like a clipper to me

[ErinInTheSky]

GFS looking different at 144h. Colder, wetter, with a slug of moisture sitting over Iowa.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not sure I like this scenario, not so much overrunning and the coastal will get shunted out quickly.