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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Confluence instead of ridging out in front. Thats a big (and welcome) change. This should be a further south track and possibly taintless.  

Looks like the GFS tends to bounce around depending on the run. 0z looks more like the 12z (except for the costal part it seems), and the 18z looks almost exactly like the 6z. I remember a while back someone mentioned that the 6z and 18z are different than the 0z and 12z, and that the 0z and 12z are better. I'm guessing they're wrong, but I'm wondering if that's why the 18z and 6z are nearly identical for the storm development and track. 

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Big phase over center of the country still not good for the snow purists out there. Only reason this run started better than 18z was increased confluence out ahead initially. A big phase solution will quickly boot that HP over Canada to the east. 12z GFS was really the best case scenario I’ve seen. Still a lot on the front end with this iteration but for those looking to avoid rain, this run ain’t it. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Transer is a little late but close to the sweet spot from TN to SC/NC border. Great run regardess. 

I was literally typing something similar. Even with a little taint, this was setting up to be a nice run given H5. Out west is really becoming the key. A less amplified trough pattern out west, it looks to yield better results. I'll take a low transfer right there..... or just a little further south ;)

Edit: Dah. Almost made the nice, clean transfer. Still wasn't too bad. Close to a beauty. 

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