nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: At 114 hrs., cold press from the North over the midwest looks better to me suggeting it stays south. But time wil tell. 500 changes out west vs 18z..looks closer to 12z where there appears to be less digging out west. Should help us out east but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: At 114 hrs., cold press from the North over the midwest looks better to me suggeting it stays south. But time wil tell. Comparable to the 12z, if not colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Stratospheric vortex forecasted to shift cold Dec 27-28. Overperforming SE ridge after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That's our s/w we are watching out in UTAH and Nevada at 144 on h5, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Midwest storm is taking its time to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 EPAC ridge doesn't amplify and the flow stays more zonal. Just copying the Euro a few runs late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Taking its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Confluence instead of ridging out in front. Thats a big (and welcome) change. This should be a further south track and possibly taintless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This might turn out pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Confluence instead of ridging out in front. Thats a big (and welcome) change. This should be a further south track and possibly taintless. I was about to say that h5 at 168 looks like a good amount of confluence out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Confluence instead of ridging out in front. Thats a big (and welcome) change. This should be a further south track and possibly taintless. Looks like the GFS tends to bounce around depending on the run. 0z looks more like the 12z (except for the costal part it seems), and the 18z looks almost exactly like the 6z. I remember a while back someone mentioned that the 6z and 18z are different than the 0z and 12z, and that the 0z and 12z are better. I'm guessing they're wrong, but I'm wondering if that's why the 18z and 6z are nearly identical for the storm development and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Perfect 552dm split in the MS valley. Should workout well according to my non-professional theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Confluence instead of ridging out in front. Thats a big (and welcome) change. This should be a further south track and possibly taintless. CAD stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nice panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CAD all the way down into Western N. Carolina at 12z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looking good at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The train of moisture is beautiful will the cold hold ? I say yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Snow its the area at noon next Friday and a lp is now in Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Even if we get "tainted", I like this run more than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CAD still holding up at 0z Saturday. Kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Once the system gets rolling, 50-60 knot 700mb jet aimed directly out of Tennessee and into the Mid Atlantic. Precip shield would come in gangbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like we (in DC and close burbs) lose 850s at 198. Eta: about 0.6-0.7” QPF falls before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Is a secondary developing off the VA coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Transer is a little late but close to the sweet spot from TN to SC/NC border. Great run regardess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 transferring low to the coast at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CAD gives way at 12z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Big phase over center of the country still not good for the snow purists out there. Only reason this run started better than 18z was increased confluence out ahead initially. A big phase solution will quickly boot that HP over Canada to the east. 12z GFS was really the best case scenario I’ve seen. Still a lot on the front end with this iteration but for those looking to avoid rain, this run ain’t it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Damn you northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Primary low into WV is a persistent sob. Needs to die sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Transer is a little late but close to the sweet spot from TN to SC/NC border. Great run regardess. I was literally typing something similar. Even with a little taint, this was setting up to be a nice run given H5. Out west is really becoming the key. A less amplified trough pattern out west, it looks to yield better results. I'll take a low transfer right there..... or just a little further south Edit: Dah. Almost made the nice, clean transfer. Still wasn't too bad. Close to a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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