Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Yeah, I expected that. Hoped the Kuchera ratio would help, but it was even more kooky in terms of snow totals. It was 5C too cold on a warm layer at 800mb during the March storm. Kuchara ratio won't fix that. I doubt anyone in SPA or MD gets more than 12" from a track like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, Amped said: It was 5C too cold on a warm layer at 800mb during the March storm. Kuchara ratio won't fix that. I doubt anyone in SPA or MD gets more than 12" from a track like this. That's what I was trying to say ealier about we mix before TT says we do. We both know this track and h5 setup in real life. Pellets will come in hours before models told us they will and then it's a short waiting game before the sand hitting the windows quiets down and the glaze starts growing. WAA snow like this also isn't pretty fluffy dendrites either. At first it might be but as the mid levels warm the snowgrowth starts to suck. Not a 10:1 ratio kind of progression. I know you know this. Just pointing out that the ground truth of a storm like this isn't pretty fluffy snow or cold smoke. I'd still love it if it verified. My yard would have full coverage for 2 weeks and there would be penguin and polar bear sightings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not that you would want to base your forecast on it but the fact that the 1000-500 hpa thickness reaches DC at 180 hr and pa line at 186 should put up a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Havent really seen anyone touch on jet stream level pattern. Past couple runs seem contrary to what we would actually want to see for an East Coast snowstorm no? This isnt the only run that has the jet well displaced to the N, unless Im misreading it. For the MA it's a giant overrunning event. No jet support needed. Tons of moisture transport and isentropic upglide into the retreating cold. These events are fun becuase you just watch radar and it comes in like a wall and starts piling up. Only 8 days to go! Eta: I love visuals and this one picture captures everything I just wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I know some just like to do it and there is nothing wrong then if it's just entertainment but for usefulness it's too soon for detailed parsing of every shift of op runs. Some people are going to go crazy These threats are still at the range where looking at the general setup on the ensembles is the way to go. Pattern looks good. We have legit threats. From this range there are usually things that can go wrong and this is no different. But i see the potential. Maybe some want to and that's totally fine but I'll go crazy if I start breaking down every run now. For now I'm just glancing at the ops then digging a bit deeper into each ensemble run to get a general sense of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's what I was trying to say ealier about we mic before TT says we do. We both know this track and h5 setup in real life. Pellets will come in hours before models told us they will and then it's a short waiting game before the sand hitting the windows quiets down and the glaze starts growing. WAA snow like this also isn't pretty fluffy dendrites either. At first it might be but as the mid levels warm the snowgrowth starts to suck. Not a 10:1 ratio kind of progression. I know you know this. Just pointing out that the ground truth of a storm like this isn't pretty fluffy snow or cold smoke. I'd still love it if it verified. My yard would have full coverage for 2 weeks and there would be penguin and polar bear sightings. You know what my favorite part about these systems is? We usually don't have to wait very long to wet bulb. Nothing, to light, to heavy can happen pretty quick. I'm still in favor of weaker, further south wave as you are. I like my low's halting over Kentucky Bluegrass or the Smokies. I don't want to see them exploring Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GEFS doesn't agree with the op in dumping everything into the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: The GEFS doesn't agree with the op in dumping everything into the Southwest. Most likely means that the GFS is just spouting out nonsense. The ensemble should support the op most times. Pretty sure that bias you mentioned is something know, as DT talked about it yesterday when it showed the rain/snow line up in Upstate New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wow. That image is stunning. Just a monster moisture feed from Baja. With the Euro and GFS both keying on an icy event I think that is probably very likely at this point. Doesnt mean how the models show we get there will be right. But we know the drill on these. If it tracks west, even with a transfer south of us, we are going to taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not that you would want to base your forecast on it but the fact that the 1000-500 hpa thickness reaches DC at 180 hr and pa line at 186 should put up a red flag.The long fetch of general ESE winds coming in long duration leading up to precip moving in is red flag enough for me. CAD wont hold long with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I know some just like to do it and there is nothing wrong then if it's just entertainment but for usefulness it's too soon for detailed parsing of every shift of op runs. Some people are going to go crazy These threats are still at the range where looking at the general setup on the ensembles is the way to go. Pattern looks good. We have legit threats. From this range there are usually things that can go wrong and this is no different. But i see the potential. Maybe some want to and that's totally fine but I'll go crazy if I start breaking down every run now. For now I'm just glancing at the ops then digging a bit deeper into each ensemble run to get a general sense of the setup. If looking at ens what do u make of the growing signal for decent looking LP in the Great Lakes mid/lateweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS through hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We better score over the next two weeks because the new weeklies are ugly beginning sometime in week 3 through week 6. You can see the beginnings of it on both the Gefs and Eps. That's pretty consistent with the seasonal models who, by the way, have January so-so and February as a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If looking at ens what do u make of the growing signal for decent looking LP in the Great Lakes mid/lateweek? I don't see that as a growing signal for a slp of consequence, but I'm not psuhoffman. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Winter possibly over by Jan 15 th :-( La Niña is ugly for us without blocking or a -Epo. IF the long range/seasonal models are correct, ugly will be the word and it's back to chasing modest events. But, they could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: La Niña is ugly for us without blocking or a -Epo. IF the long range/seasonal models are correct, ugly will be the word and it's back to chasing modest events. But, they could be wrong. We'll probably get some freak snow chances or events. Even in last February, we were close to some decent events. Either way, we'll somehow get a snow event in March like we seem to every year since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yes definitely is J/K Some Mets believe that this March may feature a back loaded winter version , although not typical in Ninas, I believe the reasoning might hinge on the weakening of the Nina. However, we all know that the current Nina is not really not that strong , and Pac forcing has been differant from typical Ninas. Maybe the weeklies are basing this on the continued advance of the MJO to phases that favor warmth. If you are to believe the frequent snows in December and the - QBO and some other data maybe the weeklies have it all wrong to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, frd said: Winter possibly over by Jan 15 th :-( Its going to be highly entertaining watching this subforum in that particular timeframe. However, I KNOW we are in for a massive snow/frigid winter, so there is no reason at all for panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Its going to be highly entertaining watching this subforum in that particular timeframe. However, I KNOW we are in for a massive snow/frigid winter, so there is no reason at all for panic. Your optimism is what keeps me going. We're already in a snow surplus as of now. We've got about 90 more days of snow chances, whether we get warmups or cool down periods during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Wow. That image is stunning. Just a monster moisture feed from Baja. With the Euro and GFS both keying on an icy event I think that is probably very likely at this point. Doesnt mean how the models show we get there will be right. But we know the drill on these. If it tracks west, even with a transfer south of us, we are going to taint. The setup is vaguely similar to PD2 on the gfs. We mixed in that quite a bit actually but no one cares. No two storms are exact clones so don't take my pd2 reference as anything more then a potential storm type comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We better score over the next two weeks because the new weeklies are ugly beginning sometime in week 3 through week 6. You can see the beginnings of it on both the Gefs and Eps. That's pretty consistent with the seasonal models who, by the way, have January so-so and February as a furnace. I would rather them look good then bad but 3 weeks ago the week leading up to xmas looked great. Last year they continually advertised a change to a great pattern. I'm not discounting the flip idea but it could also be the reverse of the last few years where we have a good pattern and the long range models continually bust in showing a pattern change. I'm not worrying too much about uber long range stuff right now. I'll save that for when things suck now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: La Niña is ugly for us without blocking or a -Epo. IF the long range/seasonal models are correct, ugly will be the word and it's back to chasing modest events. But, they could be wrong. I've been suckered into believing a (insert favorable teleconnection) was on the way week 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or whatever so many times only to see a sudden shift away at a time nobody expected. Weeklies could be right but I put zero stock in them anymore. They cause more harm then good imho. January is the best month for flawed events so if we're going to have a jacked up pattern, Jan is the best month to have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've been suckered into believing a (insert favorable teleconnection) was on the way week 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or whatever so many times only to see a sudden shift away at a time nobody expected. Weeklies could be right but I put zero stock in them anymore. They cause more harm then good imho. January is the best month for flawed events so if we're going to have a jacked up pattern, Jan is the best month to have it. This. We weren't expecting a 6 day relaxation period like we are experiencing now. Good thing is we're heading towards peak climo, and so like you said, bad patterns in January aren't deal breakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If looking at ens what do u make of the growing signal for decent looking LP in the Great Lakes mid/lateweek? I haven't had a chance to go too deep into the 18z gefs yet but earlier runs definitely had a cluster of members that cut a low up there. It wouldn't take many members doing that to drop the slp mean in that area down to 1032 lol. I would have to see the split to tell if it's a big red flag or just a little one. But a west track is a possibility and how it could go wrong. I'm not saying anything is a lock. Just that were too far out to be obsessing over every run. Especially in a progressive pattern that's shifting so much every 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've been suckered into believing a (insert favorable teleconnection) was on the way week 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or whatever so many times only to see a sudden shift away at a time nobody expected. Weeklies could be right but I put zero stock in them anymore. They cause more harm then good imho. January is the best month for flawed events so if we're going to have a jacked up pattern, Jan is the best month to have it. Agree on the weeklies. Rainshadow in the Philly site looked back since 11/1 and compared tge CFS2 and Euro weeklies and found CFS2 won 4 out of 8 weeks, euro twice, one tie, and one mutual bust. Tells me I'll be looking closer at the CFS2 now for longer range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've been suckered into believing a (insert favorable teleconnection) was on the way week 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or whatever so many times only to see a sudden shift away at a time nobody expected. Weeklies could be right but I put zero stock in them anymore. They cause more harm then good imho. January is the best month for flawed events so if we're going to have a jacked up pattern, Jan is the best month to have it. Considering how many times we've been burned, I place more stock in 384-hr snow maps than I do the weeklies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Sorry but what does taint mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 52 minutes ago, mitchnick said: La Niña is ugly for us without blocking or a -Epo. IF the long range/seasonal models are correct, ugly will be the word and it's back to chasing modest events. But, they could be wrong. Agree that long range is looking iffy, especially wrt maintaining the -AO, but SST's are kinda strange right now with a jacked up Indo-pac warm pool and high off equator temps in the Nhem east pacific. Hopefully we can drunk stumble into some nice fluke pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Sorry but what does taint mean. Snow mixes with other types of precip (sleet/frz rain/rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Sorry but what does taint mean. Taint your *** and taint your **** oh wait, that's a different taint. Mixed precip. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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