WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GFS says it's snowing in 1 weeks time. S/w digs farther south out west vs. 12z so there's more ridging over us. Still damn cold though. Low-mid 20s when it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS says it's snowing in 1 weeks time. S/w digs farther south out west vs. 12z so there's more ridging over us. Still damn cold though. Low-mid 20s when it starts. It works but it's a midlevel fight and a bad primary track west of the apps....but I'm totally good with the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS says it's snowing in 1 weeks time. S/w digs farther south out west vs. 12z so there's more ridging over us. Still damn cold though. Low-mid 20s when it starts. CAD very impressive thru 174 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It works but it's a midlevel fight and a bad primary track west of the apps....but I'm totally good with the run... 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: CAD very impressive thru 174 hrs Most def. Fun run. Snowing from NYC to Boise at the same time. That's a cool storm. Puts 10-15" down before we taint. I'd take this run in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 850s 0 degree is south of baltimore from 171 to 195. This could be a prolonged snow period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It works but it's a midlevel fight and a bad primary track west of the apps....but I'm totally good with the run... Foot+ then a change. ...cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Remember the GFS sucks with the sleet snow line. That's even if you don't include sleet as 10:1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, PDIII said: 850s 0 degree is south of baltimore from 171 to 195. This could be a prolonged snow period. Cosgrove, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Most def. Fun run. Snowing from NYC to Boise at the same time. That's a cool storm. Puts 10-15" down before we taint. I'd take this run in a second. Doesn't complete the handoff in time and the primary drives the bus. Like you, I'll stick with a flatter/weaker solution being more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It works but it's a midlevel fight and a bad primary track west of the apps....but I'm totally good with the run... Looking through the temp profiles on instantweathermaps, we eventually lose 750 first; then 800 and 850. ETA: we lose 750 shortly after H189. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Remember the GFS sucks with the sleet snow line. That's even if you don't include sleet as 10:1 snow. Yea, we're mixing well before TT says we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Troff Deamplifies at the last second. Major snows in upstate NY- NNE this run, even NE PA does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't complete the handoff in time and the primary drives the bus. Like you, I'll stick with a flatter/weaker solution being more likely. Foot+, sleet, ZR, some 32-35F rain, and then whatever slop is left freezes like a glacier. I'm 100% good with that. But yeah, trend has fully been toward flatter s/w's. So I doubt this happens. But, that was fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 LOL drugs are bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Foot+, sleet, ZR, some 32-35F rain, and then whatever slop is left freezes like a glacier. I'm 100% good with that. But yeah, trend has fully been toward flatter s/w's. So I doubt this happens. But, that was fun to look at. These runs that just explode with snow/sleet/ice are very cool, but the odds that a setup like this exactly happens is probably slimmer. Still, fun watching some areas in Maryland/Pennsylvania get 2-3' of snow plus ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Foot+, sleet, ZR, some 32-35F rain, and then whatever slop is left freezes like a glacier. I'm 100% good with that. But yeah, trend has fully been toward flatter s/w's. So I doubt this happens. But, that was fun to look at. Precip bomb into cold air is always acceptable. Taint or no taint. GFS/GEFS definitely favors this type of solution for whatever reason. It's believable at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looking through the temp profiles on instantweathermaps, we eventually lose 750 first; then 800 and 850. ETA: we lose 750 shortly after H189. 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we're mixing well before TT says we are. Still 0.75-1" of QPF before that. Either way, fun run to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GFS Verbatim>, Wet storm, plenty of Snow, some Taint, but then over 0.5” plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: LOL drugs are bad Funniest thing is that's the Snow Depth change map. That's supposed to be the most realistic snowfall total as compared to the typical 10:1 ratio. I guess not LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 And then arctic air behind it. Everything that isn't frozen is now a glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 18z GFS Verbatim>, Wet storm, plenty of Snow, some Taint, but then over 0.5” plain rain. Not possible. Are you NW of I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not possible. Are you NW of I-95? What part's not possible? The snow, the taint, or the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looking through the temp profiles on instantweathermaps, we eventually lose 750 first; then 800 and 850. ETA: we lose 750 shortly after H189. Shortly after 189 corresponds well with the TT maps because it shows we go from all snow at 186 to a mix at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What part's not possible? The snow, the taint, or the rain? I think he means west of the fall line the CAD will hold longer? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Altoona jackpot again.. similar this morning. You don't see these types of widespread snowfall totals at the 6-8 day range WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY unless the GFS is really latching on to something big. Every time we get a big storm, it is right around now that we start to see crazy totals spread out over large geographic areas. If only the darn Euro would agree, I would say we have something.. until then.. all we can do is speculate. I also dont like the marginal set up.. the 12Z was more of a classic look for big MA snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Deep winter after the storm! I like this run...almost better than 12z because of the pattern after the storm. I get it...it will change but its not too often you see a run like that. Glacier to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Funniest thing is that's the Snow Depth change map. That's supposed to be the most realistic snowfall total as compared to the typical 10:1 ratio. I guess not LOL GFS has had major problems with the sleet snow line since the upgrade last year. It showed way too much on the southern end of several events last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: GFS has had major problems with the sleet snow line since the upgrade last year. It showed way too much on the southern end of several events last year. Yeah, I expected that. Hoped the Kuchera ratio would help, but it was even more kooky in terms of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Glaciers are lots of fun. Hard to melt, and fun to do the Michael Jackson Dance on em. Good Times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Havent really seen anyone touch on jet stream level pattern. Past couple runs seem contrary to what we would actually want to see for an East Coast snowstorm no? This isnt the only run that has the jet well displaced to the N, unless Im misreading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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